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U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen

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USDJPY trade ideas

WAITING FOR A BEARISH PULLBACKUSD/JPY 4H - As you can see here price has been trading us in a bullish way. I want to see price pullback to clear the inefficiency that has been left behind allowing us to get involved in longs at a better price. By price pulling back down and into an area of interest (Demand) we are able to get in at a cheaper price which means we are able to take a larger profit from a push up and inevitably able to get in with a more refined entry as we know where price may reverse from. We could look to go short in the market before we go long but as you all know that would be trading against the higher timeframe prevailing trend and that comes with its own risks. Remember, the trend is your friend. We would need confirmation parameters to be met either way for both longs in the market and short positions before we look to place the positions we want to, this just gives us an added layer of protection and a higher probability of being successful.
Long
by Lukegforex
USDJPY Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in this analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
Long
by ShahedZare
USD/JPY Bullish Breakout: High-Probability Buy SetupsThe USD/JPY 4-hour chart is showing a clear Bullish Gartley harmonic pattern, followed by a breakout of a descending trendline. After reaching point D of the pattern, the price initiated a bullish reversal. Currently, the price has broken through a key descending resistance line, signaling strong buyer momentum. The TDIGMA oscillator confirms this, with momentum indicators consistently moving towards overbought territory, reflecting the current buying pressure. 1. Buy on Trendline Breakout With the confirmed breakout of the descending trendline, a potential strategy is to buy into the continuation of this upward movement, capitalizing on the positive momentum. Entry: Buy around the 148.69 zone to capture the continuation of the breakout. Stop Loss: 145.369 (near the support line). Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:1 Rationale: The strong resistance break and ongoing bullish pattern suggest a high probability that the pair will continue to rise. 2. Buy on a Small Pullback Description: Another buying opportunity may arise if there’s a small pullback to retest the broken trendline as support. This can offer a lower-risk entry with the trend in your favor. Entry: Buy between 147.30 - 148.00 (on a retest of the breakout line). Stop Loss: 145.369 (near the support line). Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:1 Rationale: Pullbacks after breakouts often offer high-probability entries. However, this pullback may not occur if the bullish momentum continues without pause. USD/JPY presents a clear bullish scenario after breaking the descending trendline. The strategy to buy on the continuation of the breakout is the most recommended, with a high probability of success. Buying after a small pullback also offers an attractive strategy with strong potential. Keep an eye on price action for optimal entries.
Long
by MrVNpt
2
UsdJpy Trade IdeaUJ has been in a clean range between 149 and 140.6. Once price tapped into 140.6 we ended up getting a clean flip of structure with bullish structures staying strong throughout the week. We ended last week at resistance being 149 but we're still overall bullish! Which means I'll personally still be looking for longs for the new week. I would want to see price pullback and retest either 147.100 or 145.930 before going long on the pair. The last HL within the range is 145.930 so as long as price stays above that level then we are definitely still long within the range. I'll look target the resistance level at 149.
Long
by OfficialJ23
USDJPY : A closer look A closer observation on the confluences between wave relationship from different points insinuate a high probable topping at 161.95 (see previous posting on the longer- term wave relationship). There is a possibility of a 5 wave completion to the downside and a current corrective upside in play. Interestingly, price breached the supporting trendline to see it moving back up to retest the trendline . Further upside could still be in play with areas at 150.43 - 150.61 ( 50% retracement & 1.27 of wave a from red b) or higher 153.12 -153.17 (61.8% retracement & 1.618 of wave a from red b) and probably retesting the underside of the trendline. The following move down will be interesting with risk at 161.95 against what is about to unfold in the third wave if the count is not invalidated.
by micchua
Fundamentals Favoring a Bullish USDJPY:What Traders Need to KnowIn today's trading environment, the USD/JPY currency pair presents a bullish opportunity. Here are some key fundamentals that support this bias, along with an explanation of utilizing probabilities for positioning long trades. Key Fundamentals Supporting a Bullish Bias on USD/JPY 1. Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Monetary Policy: The BoJ has maintained its accommodative monetary policy, refraining from committing to predefined rate hikes for the remainder of the year. This stance is likely to weaken the Japanese Yen against the U.S. Dollar as traders anticipate continued divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and the BoJ. 2. U.S. Economic Growth: Recent data indicates a pickup in U.S. economic growth without significant inflationary pressures. This environment supports a stronger U.S. Dollar as it suggests that the Federal Reserve may not need to cut rates aggressively, contrary to some market expectations. 3. Market Sentiment: The overall sentiment in the forex market is leaning towards a bullish outlook for the U.S. Dollar, particularly against currencies like the Yen, which is under pressure due to Japan's economic conditions and the BoJ's policies. Utilizing Probabilities for Long Positions in USD/JPY When trading, I prioritize using probabilities to enhance my decision-making process. In conclusion, by focusing on probabilities and key fundamental indicators, I am strategically positioning myself for potential long trades in USD/JPY. This method not only enhances my trading confidence but also provides a structured approach to navigating market volatility effectively. Let's dive into my comprehensive top-down analysis together: 12M: 2W: 1H:
Long
by Jasminex1x2
Slight Bullish Bias Driven by Key Fundamentals on USDJPY.USDJPY Analysis for 04/10/2024: Slight Bullish Bias Driven by Key Fundamentals On October 4, 2024, the USDJPY currency pair displayed a slight bullish bias, influenced by several fundamental factors and market conditions. These elements provided upward momentum for the pair, making it an attractive opportunity for traders. Below is an in-depth analysis of the key drivers that shaped the bullish sentiment in USDJPY: 1. Strong US Dollar Momentum The primary factor behind the bullish bias in USDJPY on October 4, 2024, was the ongoing strength of the US dollar. The release of positive U.S. economic data, particularly strong non-farm payrolls and robust manufacturing data, bolstered investor confidence in the U.S. economy. This economic resilience reaffirmed expectations that the Federal Reserve would maintain its hawkish stance on interest rates, potentially keeping rates elevated for a longer period. As a result, the USD gained strength across the board, driving USDJPY higher as traders moved into dollar-denominated assets. The higher yields offered by U.S. assets compared to Japanese assets provided additional support for the dollar, causing upward pressure on the pair. 2. Diverging Central Bank Policies The monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues to be a significant driver of the USDJPY pair. While the Federal Reserve remains committed to its tightening cycle to combat inflation, the BoJ has maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy. The BoJ’s reluctance to shift away from its low interest rate environment has kept the Japanese yen under pressure, creating a favorable environment for a bullish USDJPY bias. Investors are increasingly focused on the Fed's hawkish stance, especially as the BoJ remains committed to keeping yields low, which has created a significant interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan. This yield differential is a core reason why USDJPY is supported at higher levels, as traders are incentivized to seek higher returns in USD-denominated assets. 3. Rising U.S. Treasury Yields Another key factor supporting the bullish bias in USDJPY on October 4, 2024, was the rise in U.S. Treasury yields. With the Fed’s monetary tightening policy expected to continue, yields on longer-term U.S. Treasuries increased, making U.S. bonds more attractive to global investors. Higher yields provide better returns for holding USD assets, further boosting the demand for dollars. In contrast, Japanese yields remain suppressed due to the BoJ's yield curve control policy, which keeps interest rates near zero. This divergence in bond yields between the U.S. and Japan continues to make the yen less appealing compared to the dollar, adding to the bullish momentum in USDJPY. 4. Safe-Haven Demand Shift Traditionally, the Japanese yen is considered a safe-haven currency, attracting demand during times of global uncertainty. However, on October 4, 2024, the risk sentiment in global markets was relatively stable, with investors favoring the U.S. dollar as the dominant safe-haven currency. This shift in safe-haven demand towards the USD rather than the yen has supported the bullish bias in USDJPY. With no major geopolitical risks materializing and the U.S. economy showing signs of strength, investors found the USD a more attractive safe-haven asset, further driving up USDJPY as risk aversion eased. Conclusion: USDJPY Outlook The combination of a strong U.S. dollar, monetary policy divergence, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and a shift in safe-haven demand contributed to the slightly bullish bias in USDJPY on 04/10/2024. As long as the BoJ maintains its accommodative stance and the Federal Reserve continues with its tightening cycle, USDJPY could remain on an upward trajectory. Traders should continue to monitor both U.S. economic data and BoJ policy announcements, as these will play a crucial role in shaping the future direction of the pair. A continued rise in U.S. yields, along with solid U.S. economic growth, may further support the bullish bias, while any signs of policy changes from the BoJ could lead to increased volatility in USDJPY. Keywords for SEO: - USDJPY analysis - USDJPY bullish bias - USDJPY forecast - Federal Reserve interest rates - US Dollar strength - Bank of Japan policy - USDJPY technical analysis - U.S. Treasury yields impact - Diverging central bank policies - Trading USDJPY - Safe-haven currency shift - USDJPY daily update - USDJPY bullish outlook
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
"USD/JPY Buy Setup Pending Strong Support Confirmation"USD/JPY monthly structure is currently exhibiting an OLHC (Open Low High Close) pattern, signaling a potential buy setup. At the moment, we are still following the short-term sell trend until a significant support level is established, which will mark a favorable point for buying. This strong support is expected to form with the appearance of a bullish TDI (Traders Dynamic Index) cross on the daily timeframe. Currently, two key confirmations are present on the daily chart: a bullish divergence and an Open Low structure. The only element missing for a full buy confirmation is the bullish TDI cross, which will indicate increased buying momentum in the market. My target level for this trade is 145.895 , aligning with the Monthly Open. Please trade with caution. If you find this analysis helpful, kindly support it with a like, share, or comment.
Long
by ezeepips
USD/JPY Poised for Gains as DXY StrengthensThe US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its upward momentum as Treasury yields recover from recent losses, bolstering the Greenback’s strength. However, this rally may soon face headwinds, with growing market expectations of additional rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2024. Traders are now focusing on the upcoming US Flash Manufacturing PMI, which is due for release within the hour. The PMI data will offer a fresh perspective on the health of the US manufacturing sector, and any surprise in the numbers could influence the Greenback’s near-term trajectory. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to show a slight improvement, reflecting stabilizing economic conditions, but traders remain alert for any deviations from the forecast. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 50% probability that the Fed could reduce rates by as much as 75 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.0-4.25% by the end of the year. This potential easing has kept some investors cautious, as it could curb the USD’s long-term gains. From a technical standpoint, we are seeing a key opportunity in the USD/JPY pair, which has rebounded from a strong demand area. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows that retail traders are still heavily short on the USD/JPY, while institutional "smart money" appears to be shifting its stance, reducing its bearish exposure. This setup aligns with our previous analysis, where we highlighted the potential for a long position as the pair regains upward momentum. As the USD/JPY continues to rebound from this demand zone, the conditions remain favorable for a long trade. The shift in sentiment among institutional traders, combined with the recovery in Treasury yields and the strength of the DXY, supports the case for further upside. However, traders should remain cautious as the Fed’s rate cut expectations may still influence broader USD sentiment in the months ahead. For now, the focus remains on the US PMI release and its impact on both Treasury yields and the USD. Should the data come in stronger than expected, it could provide additional fuel for the DXY’s rally, further reinforcing the bullish outlook for USD/JPY. Conversely, weaker-than-expected PMI data could reignite concerns about the Fed’s dovish outlook, potentially pausing the Greenback's current rally. We continue to monitor the situation closely, with a bullish setup in USD/JPY remaining a key focus in the near term. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1