usdjpy|foxforexMy thoughts on usdjpy are then extremely bearish. I think that breaking the upward trend and getting stuck at the resistance between 154-155 are signs of sharp declines.
USDJPY trade ideas
USDJPY Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Technical analysis of USD/JPY trend, downside risks may increaseHi traders, Recently, Japan released a strong GDP data, showing the resilience of Japan's economic recovery and increasing market expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. The strong GDP data not only boosted the short-term trend of the yen, but also consolidated the market's confidence in the fundamentals of the Japanese economy. In addition, the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan is gradually narrowing, further boosting demand for the yen.
At the same time, the US dollar is generally dragged down by market selling sentiment, and the USD/JPY exchange rate is currently hovering around the 151.80 area, and even hit a nearly 5-day low during the Asian trading session on Monday (February 17). Although the market is concerned that the reciprocal tariff policy implemented by US President Trump may have a certain impact on market sentiment, the overall fundamentals still favor yen bulls. However, although there are bullish factors for the yen on the fundamentals, the US dollar also has some positive support, and the current market is at a critical node where long and short forces are intertwined.
Technical analyst interpretation:
From a technical point of view, USD/JPY is currently in a key area of long and short game. The current exchange rate fluctuates around 151.80, and the market shows a volatile consolidation trend in the short term, but the overall downward pressure is still obvious.
From the support level, the 151.45-151.40 area is regarded as the first key support in the near future. This range is not only a continuation of the previous low, but also has a strong psychological support effect. If the support strength in this area is insufficient, the market is likely to further drop to the 150.95-150.90 area, which is the low area touched at the beginning of this month. In terms of technical graphics, both the daily and 4-hour charts show that after stabilizing near this area many times, there have been repeated declines, indicating that the short-selling force still has the upper hand.
Further observing the oscillator indicators, many oscillator indicators on the daily chart remain in the negative range, showing that the overall selling momentum of the market continues. Although there was a short-term buying when the price approached the support, it failed to form an effective absorption, but the downward trend continued. If the support level is continued to be broken, follow-up selling may trigger a short chain reaction, pushing the exchange rate to a lower area quickly.
From the perspective of the target, if the price breaks through the 151.45-151.40 area, the next target will be the 150.95-150.90 area, and then the decline may extend to the important psychological level of 150.00, and then test the 149.60-149.55 area, the 149.00 integer, and the 148.65 area near the swing low in December 2024. The distribution of key lows shows that the market has a clear downward path, and the short-selling force is expected to further lower the exchange rate with the loss of key support levels.
On the upside, if the USD/JPY tries to rebound and break through the 152.00 level, it will face obvious resistance. The primary resistance is in the 152.70 area, which is exactly where the 200-day moving average is located, and the long-term moving average often has a strong interception effect. Following closely is the 100-day moving average, which is currently roughly in the 153.15 area. Once this moving average is effectively broken, the market may see short-covering, driving a rapid rebound in the exchange rate in the short term. The rebound trend is expected to push USD/JPY above the 154.00 mark and further impact 154.45-154.50, and may eventually test the 154.75-154.80 area near last week's swing high.
Overall, USD/JPY is currently at a critical watershed in the battle between longs and shorts from a technical perspective. The current shock consolidation combined with negative oscillator indicators shows obvious downside risks; once the key support level is lost, the short trend may expand rapidly, catalyzing the market into a deep adjustment phase. On the contrary, if the upper resistance can be broken in the short term, it is expected to trigger short-covering and form a short-term rebound.
Mr. Baker
USDJPY CHART TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NEXT MOVE POSSIBLE This chart represents a technical analysis of USD/JPY (U.S. Dollar to Japanese Yen) on the 1-hour timeframe.
Key Insights:
1. Support Zone (Blue Area):
The price has reached a key support zone around 151.00 - 151.80.
Buyers may step in, leading to a potential bullish reversal.
2. Bullish Projection:
The black arrow indicates an expected price bounce from the support zone, targeting 152.50 - 153.00.
A possible higher low formation suggests a trend shift.
3. Previous Price Action:
The market formed a double-wave correction after a strong bullish move.
A break above 152.00 could confirm bullish momentum.
Trading Implication:
If support holds: Look for buy opportunities with targets at 152.50 - 153.00.
If support breaks: The price could decline further toward 151.00 or lower.
Would you like me to create a short caption for your channel?
USD/JPY H4 | Rising into resistanceUSD/JPY is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 152.42 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 153.10 which is a level that sits above an overlap resistance and the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance.
Take profit is at 151.23 which is a multi-swing-low support.
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USD/JPY Falls from 154.80 – Is 146 the Next Target?In my post last week about USD/JPY, I mentioned that the pair could resume its decline and draw attention to the 154+ sell zone.
Indeed, USD/JPY started falling after reaching 154.80 and is now trading at 151.72, which is very close to a key horizontal support level.
Looking ahead, I expect this support to break, pushing the pair below 150 and potentially down to the next horizontal support around 146.
In conclusion, my strategy remains unchanged: I will continue looking to sell rallies, with invalidation above last week’s high.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
POTENTIAL BULLISH MOVE ON UJMarket is approaching a strong level of support(prev resistance) - Break and retest Theory
Trend is bullish therefore expecting an impulsive move to break prev structure.
Currently waiting for bullish momentum and break of a prev candle to enter the trade!
USD/JPY - Precision Play on SMC FoundationsLocked in on this one from top-down analysis.
4H:
Price swept IDM liquidity and is now mitigating a clean 4H order block — textbook SMC move.
30M:
Waited for liquidity to be taken out here too, and price didn’t disappoint. It struck my refined 30M order block perfectly, showing respect to structure and order flow.
5M:
Now it’s time for patience. Waiting for that CHoCH flip and liquidity grab to confirm my entry. Once that trigger hits, I’m in. Let’s run it.
Bless Trading!
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Bullish bounce off pullback support?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 151.12
1st Support: 149.37
1st Resistance: 154.33
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Usdjpy scenario Based on our analysis, there is a high probability that USDJPY may enter a bearish trend in the near future.
Potential bullish bounce?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that line sup with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 151.90
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 151.08
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that is slightly above the 78.6% Fibonacci projection.
Take profit: 153.71
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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USDJPY4H Beautiful Text Book Cup and Handle Pattern
1H shows strong Compression towards Demand area
Look Like a Bullish Week on this Pair IMO
upward in daily time frame but....In the daily timeframe, the trend is upward, so we should expect an increase, but in the 4-hour and 1-hour timeframes, the trend is still downward, and according to my analysis, I expect that on Monday, after a small upward movement, it will continue its downward trend to around 151, and then we will see the beginning of an upward movement.
USDJPY H4 TF Bearish"All Insights are given on Chart"
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Do your own Research and Trade Wisely Never rely on my opinions.Good Luck folks
USDJPYBelow is the fundamental analysis for USD/JPY, structured similarly to the provided model:
Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY (February 2025)
This analysis examines updated macroeconomic indicators, geopolitical factors, data from the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, possible scenarios, and a favorable scenario based on current economic conditions.
1. Macroeconomic Indicators and Monetary Policy
United States
• GDP and Economic Growth:
• The US economy continues to expand at a robust pace, underpinned by strong consumer spending and a resilient labor market.
• Inflation:
• US inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, which sustains a cautious monetary policy environment.
• Fed Monetary Policy:
• In the latest FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range, balancing efforts to rein in inflation while supporting continued growth.
• Unemployment and Labor Market:
• A low unemployment rate and steady wage growth reinforce the overall strength of the US labor market.
Japan
• GDP and Economic Growth:
• Japan’s economy has shown modest growth in Q4 2024, facing headwinds from demographic challenges and global economic uncertainties.
• Inflation:
• Inflation in Japan remains subdued and well below the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) target, reflecting ongoing deflationary pressures despite various policy measures.
• BoJ Monetary Policy:
• The BoJ continues to support the economy with an ultra-loose monetary policy, maintaining near-zero or negative interest rates to stimulate growth and counter deflation.
• Unemployment and Labor Market:
• Japan’s labor market remains stable, though structural issues limit significant wage growth and robust employment expansion.
2. Geopolitical Factors
• Global Trade and Economic Uncertainty:
• Ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties contribute to market volatility. In periods of uncertainty, the USD often benefits as a safe-haven currency, though the JPY is also traditionally viewed as a safe haven.
• US-Japan Economic Relations:
• Bilateral economic policies and trade dynamics between the US and Japan can impact the USD/JPY exchange rate, especially during periods of economic policy shifts or trade negotiations.
• Risk Sentiment:
• Shifts in global risk sentiment may drive fluctuations in USD/JPY as investors move between safe-haven assets, influencing the relative demand for both the USD and the JPY.
3. Commitment of Traders (COT) Report – February 11, 2025
Non-Commercial Traders (Large Speculators):
• Long Positions:
• Short Positions:
• Net Position:
• These figures indicate the short-term bias of speculators. A net long position on USD or short on JPY would suggest an expectation of dollar strength in the near term.
Commercial Traders (Hedgers):
• Typically, these traders hedge their exposures based on longer-term fundamentals. Their positioning may indicate confidence in stability or modest shifts in USD/JPY.
Small Traders (Non-Reportable):
• Retail positioning can offer insights into broader market sentiment and sometimes serve as a contrarian signal to institutional flows.
Note: Specific numbers should be updated with the latest COT data to refine the sentiment analysis.
4. Possible Scenarios for USD/JPY
Scenario 1: USD Strength (Bullish for USD/JPY)
• Triggers:
• Continued robust performance of the US economy with a maintained or slightly hawkish stance by the Fed.
• Heightened global uncertainty that drives safe-haven flows preferentially into the USD over the JPY.
• Outcome:
• USD/JPY could rise, potentially trading above 135.
Scenario 2: Consolidation (Sideways Movement)
• Triggers:
• Mixed economic signals from both the US and Japan, with steady monetary policies on both sides.
• Outcome:
• USD/JPY may trade within a narrow range, roughly between 130 and 135.
Scenario 3: JPY Strength (Bearish for USD/JPY)
• Triggers:
• A dovish pivot by the Fed in response to slowing US growth or improved risk sentiment boosting safe-haven demand for the JPY.
• Positive economic data from Japan or an escalation in global tensions favoring the yen as a secure asset.
• Outcome:
• USD/JPY could decline, potentially moving below 130.
5. Favorable Scenario Based on Current Data
Medium-Term Favorable Scenario for USD/JPY: Consolidation with a Potential for Gradual USD Strength
Reasons:
• The robust performance of the US economy and the Fed’s cautious policy stance support near-term dollar strength.
• Japan’s continued accommodative monetary policy and structural challenges limit rapid appreciation of the JPY.
• Should global risk sentiment remain volatile, intermittent safe-haven flows could favor the USD over the JPY.
Target:
• In the coming months, USD/JPY is likely to consolidate within the range of 130 to 135, with potential upward movement toward 135 if US economic data continues to outperform expectations.
6. Disclaimer
This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The Forex market is volatile, and trading decisions should be based on individual research and analysis. Any losses incurred from the use of this analysis are solely the responsibility of the investor.
If you have any further questions or need additional insights, feel free to ask!
