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U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen

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USDJPY trade ideas

USDJPY 4H BULLISH ZONEBased on the USD/JPY 4-hour chart we provided, the market is currently in an ascending channel. A recent dip from the upper boundary of the channel suggests a possible retracement before a bounce back up. The chart indicates a bullish continuation pattern with a projected move toward the top of the channel and a marked target around 148.725–148.855. Suggested Buy Trade Setup: Entry Zone (Buy Limit): Near the mid-channel or support trendline: 145.50–145.80 Take Profit Levels (TPs): 1. TP1: 147.00 – conservative target (near recent highs) 2. TP2: 148.00 – key resistance and psychological level 3. TP3: 148.725 – top of the channel 4. TP4: 148.855 – potential breakout level or final target Stop Loss (SL): Below channel support: 144.80–145.00, depending on risk appetite
Long
by Robert055
USDJPY SHORTFollowing last week’s sustained bullish rally, price has just completed an M formation right above a 4H order block. The second leg of the M coincided with a bearish pin bar on the 1H and a clean bearish engulfing — textbook signs of distribution. Price Action Insight: Instead of breaking down immediately, price is returning back toward a minor OB near the second leg — a common smart money trap designed to fake a bullish continuation, trap late buyers, and then engineer liquidity before the real move down begins. Key Bias: I am short-biased. Structure has flipped. Liquidity above the M is cleared, and now the market might be looking to deliver into downside inefficiencies. News, in my opinion, will likely act as the catalyst — not the cause — for the next impulse. What I’m Watching: OB retest near 4H M-top Rejection wick or lower timeframe confirmation on retest (15m–1H) Reaction around 1:30 PM news (USD CPI or relevant event) Trade Management Tip: If you’re already in this trade like I am — manage it smartly. Never enter solely based on someone else's idea. Make sure your bias aligns with your own technicals, confirmations, and risk. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Just how I see the chart based on structure, liquidity, and price action. Trade your own plan. Stay sharp.
Short
by The-ultimate-trader
USDJPY 15 MINUTE This chart shows a USD/JPY 15-minute timeframe analysis with a visible trade setup involving a break of a rising trendline: Bearish Trade Setup: The price broke below the ascending trendline, indicating a potential bearish reversal. Entry Point: Likely entered just after the trendline break. Stop Loss: Placed above the recent highs (~148.639). Take Profit: Set around 146.213, which the price has successfully hit (marked as "target successful"). Pattern: The chart seems to include a possible double top pattern near the circled high, which often signals bearish reversal. This looks like a well-executed short trade based on classic
Short
by Alpha_Gold_Trader
USD/JPY SHORT SET UP📉 USD/JPY – Short Setup in Play After Major Rally 🗓️ Published May 12, 2025 | 4H Chart | OANDA After a strong bullish surge in USD/JPY, price has now tapped into a key resistance zone near 148.875, aligning closely with prior supply and the declining 200 EMA. This area also coincides with a psychological resistance level. 💡 A short position has been initiated following rejection from the supply zone, marked by a clean bearish candle and fading momentum. The blue arrow highlights the entry confirmation area.
Short
by washbismarck
Global Calm, Fiscal Storm: The Yen's Challenge?The USD/JPY currency pair has recently experienced a notable surge, driving the Japanese Yen to its weakest level against the US Dollar in a month. This appreciation primarily stems from a significant improvement in global risk sentiment, sparked by a breakthrough trade agreement between the United States and China. This deal, aimed at reducing the US trade deficit, has bolstered investor confidence and diminished the traditional safe-haven appeal of the Yen. Adding to the dollar's strength is the Federal Reserve's continued hawkish stance, signaling no immediate plans for interest rate cuts and reinforcing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets amidst easing concerns about a US recession. Simultaneously, internal economic pressures in Japan significantly weigh on the Yen. The nation's public debt has reached an unprecedented high, driven by persistent increases in defense spending and social welfare costs due to an aging population. Government subsidies for energy bills and the need to issue more bonds to cover rising expenditures exacerbate this fiscal strain. This challenging domestic backdrop contrasts sharply with the Federal Reserve's position, creating a widening divergence in monetary policy outlooks that favors the US Dollar through yield differentials, despite the Bank of Japan's cautious consideration of future rate adjustments. Furthermore, reducing global geopolitical tensions has contributed to the shift away from safe-haven currencies. Recent ceasefires and prospects for diplomatic talks in key conflict areas have encouraged a "risk-on" environment in financial markets. This increased appetite for riskier assets directly reduces demand for the Japanese Yen, amplifying the impact of fundamental economic factors and monetary policy divergence on the USD/JPY exchange rate. The pair's trajectory remains subject to evolving global dynamics, upcoming economic data releases, and central bank communications.
Long
by UDIS_View
USDJPY InsightWelcome to All Subscribers! Please feel free to share your personal thoughts in the comments. Don’t forget to hit the boost and subscribe buttons! Key Points At the May FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25%–4.50%, in line with market expectations. The Fed reiterated its stance of responding based on lagging economic data. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated during the press conference that the goals of price stability and full employment may come into conflict, and that he cannot confidently say what the appropriate policy path will be moving forward. His remarks implied increased uncertainty due to tariffs. A high-level U.S.–China meeting is scheduled to take place over two days starting May 10. U.S. Treasury official Scott Bessent commented that this meeting is just the beginning and it’s unclear how things will unfold from here. Key Economic Events This Week May 8: Bank of England (BOE) Interest Rate Decision USD/JPY Chart Analysis The USD/JPY pair is gradually showing increased volatility, with signs of a broader trend forming. In the short term, downward pressure appears dominant, with expectations that the pair may decline toward the 140 level. However, a rebound is likely to follow, potentially pushing the pair back up toward the 144–146 range.
Short
by shawntime_academy
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 14, 2025 USDJPYUSDJPY: The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to strengthen against its US counterpart for the second consecutive day on Wednesday and reacted weakly to the Producer Price Index (PPI), which was largely unchanged. Aggressive comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shin'ichi Uchida on Tuesday keep the door open for further policy normalisation and continue to serve as a tailwind for the Japanese Yen. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, continues to be threatened by weaker US consumer inflation data released on Tuesday, which raised the odds that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates at least twice this year. This is seen as another factor putting downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. Meanwhile, optimism about a 90-day tariff truce between the US and China continues to keep the market upbeat. This may deter traders from aggressively bullish bets on the safe-haven yen. Nevertheless, the diverging policy expectations between the BoJ and the Fed indicate that the path of least resistance for the low-yielding Yen lies to the upside and support the prospects of further downside for the USD/JPY pair. In the absence of any market-relevant economic data from the US, traders will focus on speeches from influential FOMC members. In addition, broader risk sentiment may give the currency pair some momentum. Trading recommendation: SELL 147.10, SL 147.30, TP 146.10
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USDJPY InsightWelcome to all our subscribers! Please feel free to share your personal thoughts in the comments. Don't forget to hit the booster and subscribe! Key Points - The U.S. and China have agreed to reduce tariffs by 115% during a high-level trade negotiation held in Geneva, Switzerland. As a result, the U.S. will impose a 30% tariff on Chinese imports, while China will impose a 10% tariff on U.S. imports. - U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he "might be able to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week." However, he warned that if the two countries fail to reach an agreement within 90 days, tariffs could be "significantly higher" than the current 30%. - The possibility of a ceasefire in the Russia–Ukraine war remains uncertain. While the U.S., Europe, and Ukraine proposed a 30-day ceasefire, Russia has not responded and has instead continued drone attacks on Ukraine. Major Economic Events This Week + May 13: U.S. April Consumer Price Index (CPI) + May 14: Germany April Consumer Price Index + May 15: U.K. Q1 GDP, U.S. April Retail Sales, U.S. April Producer Price Index (PPI), Speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell + May 16: Japan Q1 GDP USDJPY Chart Analysis Although it briefly stalled near the 146 level, USDJPY has ultimately broken through resistance and is showing a steep upward trend. It is currently trading near the 149 level, and unless there is a major shift, the pair is expected to continue its climb toward the 151 range. We will reassess its direction once it approaches that level.
Long
by shawntime_academy
USD/JPY Breaks Out – Bulls Eye 149.35 Fibonacci TargetUSD/JPY surged nearly 2%, breaking above both its 50-day SMA and short-term downtrend line, signaling a potential trend reversal: 📈 Strong bullish candle, clearing the 146.50–147.50 zone 📊 RSI climbing through 60, showing accelerating bullish momentum 📉 MACD crossing the zero line, reinforcing the bullish signal 🔺 Next upside targets: 149.35 = 50% Fib retracement of the Dec–April decline 151.60 = 61.8% Fib and near 200-day SMA Staying above 146.30 keeps the bias bullish. A close above 149.35 would open the door for a potential run toward 154.80. -MW
by FOREXcom
USDJPY Elliott Wave Signals Resumption of Bearish MomentumThe USD/JPY currency pair is showing a bearish trend that began on July 3, 2024, and is expected to continue declining toward the 136.50 level. In the short term, the price movement since the March 28, 2025 high is forming a zigzag pattern, according to Elliott Wave analysis. From the March 28, 2025 high, the decline in wave (A) reached 139.89. This was followed by a corrective wave (B), which also unfolded as a zigzag. Within wave (B), the price rose to 144.03 (wave A), then dipped to 141.95 (wave B). Afterwards, it climbed to 145.90 (wave C), completing wave (B). The pair has since turned lower, starting wave (C). Wave (C) is currently developing as an impulse pattern in Elliott Wave terms. From the May 2, 2025 high, the price dropped to 143.72 (wave (i)), then rallied to 145.08 (wave (ii)). The decline resumed, reaching 142.34 (wave (iii)). A corrective rally in wave (iv) is believed to have finished at 143.30. The pair is now expected to decline further to complete wave (v). This will finalize wave ((i)) in the larger structure. After this, a corrective rally in wave ((ii)) should occur, partially recovering from the May 2, 2025 high, before the downward trend resumes. In the near term, as long as the high at 145.90 holds, any upward movements are likely to be limited and fail in a pattern of 3, 7, or 11 swings, leading to further declines.
by Elliottwave-Forecast
USDJPY COT and Liquidity AnalysisCOT Report Analysis: You might thinking why Im bearish here when we can see such high number of shorts in the COT. Here is where historical extremes comes in to play. Look how JPY Longs (USDJPY shorts) reached 10 years extreme and in the same time there is 10 years extreme net positions. Right in the time may when Dollar is seasonally strongest. ITs time to take profits from these USDJPY shorts it will take price up. Dollar Seasonal Tendencies Hey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. This is a big part of my FX Trading. Im always trying to trade with the Big players so knowing their positions is good thing. Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage. I created this simple free indicator which you can find in the my scripts. It's highlighting the day of the real report - Tuesday. Here is the tip if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance. Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. "Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own." — David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
Long
by David_Perk
10
USDJPY: Bullish Continuation Confirmed?! 🇺🇸🇯🇵 USDJPY looks bullish after a test of a recently broken resistance. The price formed a bullish imbalance candle on an hourly time frame after its test and violated a resistance line of a bullish flag pattern then. I believe that the pair will continue growing. Goal - 145.8 ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by VasilyTrader
3