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U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen

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USDJPY trade ideas

Fundamental Market Analysis for November 7, 2024 USDJPYEvent to pay attention to today: 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Rate Decision USDJPY: The Japanese Yen (JPY) is experiencing difficulty in registering a notable recovery against its US counterpart and is currently trading at a level approaching its lowest point since 30 July. The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) limited ability to raise interest rates and the prevailing risk-on environment continue to undermine the safe-haven yen. Furthermore, the rise in US Treasury bond yields, driven by the return of Republican Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States (US), has contributed to the downward pressure on the low-yielding yen. Meanwhile, the overnight decline prompted a verbal intervention from Japanese authorities, which may provide some support to the yen and help limit losses. The US dollar (USD) is currently trading just below the four-month high reached on Wednesday, amid optimism over growth and inflation. This could limit the Federal Reserve's (Fed) ability to cut interest rates. This could provide further encouragement for the USD/JPY pair ahead of the highly anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision this Thursday. Trade recommendation: Trading mainly by Sell orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USDJPY/Bearish Setups Ahead: (Possibly 670+ pips)After a long bearish run, we've seen a key break below the intra trend low at 146.60. Price has also broken out of the broader trend dating from March 2022 to December 2023, dipping into demand zones along the way. Now trading at a premium in the current downtrend, the logical play is to look for short opportunities. On the 4H timeframe, a rising channel extends from October 4, 2024, at 147.34 up to October 31, 2024. Given upcoming fundamental releases, there’s potential for price to drop below 151.40. A close below this level on the 4H chart would confirm a trendline break and a structural shift, signaling a bearish move that could run down to 145.10 — a solid 670 pips in play. To catch this move early, I’ll be watching the 1H timeframe. If price meets our key condition of closing below 151.40, or ideally falls to 150.88, then a swing entry at 152.21 with an initial target at 149.55 is in focus. We’ll trail down from there as price develops. Remember, the close below 151.40 is essential for validating this entry. Risk according to your tolerance and keep an eye out here for updates on this trade and more. Don’t miss my latest analysis on DXY and Gold heading into the US election!
by Ieios
USDJPY_109 2024.10.30 17:50:03 Trading Signal BUYFrankPro Signal for USDJPY_109 Type: Screen Signal: BUY TP: 153.98 SL: 153.112 Entry Price: 153.236 Analysis for USDJPY Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST= Strong Down LT= Strong Up Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Down LT=Up ST=Down LT=Up ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(0) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the USD/JPY pair's expected price movement: **Short-term (next few days):** * The pair is expected to face selling pressure near 150.00, and a break below 150.05 could indicate a continued decline to below 147.25. * The mean reversion rebound may have reached an overstretched condition, suggesting a potential pause in the upside momentum. * The daily RSI has flashed a bearish condition, indicating a potential pause in the upside momentum. * FX option expiries at 151.00, 152.00, and 152.50 could influence price movements around these levels. **Expected short-term price movement:** Down **Long-term (next few weeks/months):** * The technical overview and forecast suggest that the pair is expected to test the support area near 151.65 before potentially rebounding and continuing its growth to the area above 159.05. * The Elliott Wave analysis suggests that the main scenario indicates a potential drop to levels between 138.08 and 131.25 if the price holds below 151.54, but an alternative scenario indicates a potential rise to levels between 153.88 and 156.74. * The moving averages suggest a short-term bullish trend, but a bearish correction is anticipated before further growth. **Expected long-term price movement:** Up, but with a potential bearish correction before further growth. Please note that these assessments are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new data and events emerge. Result: ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(1) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the expected price movement for the USD/JPY pair: **Short-term (next few days):** * The pair is facing selling pressure near the 150.00 level, and technical analysis suggests a potential drop to 138.08-131.25 if the price holds below 151.54. * However, the forecast for October 30, 2024, indicates an attempt to test the support area near 151.65, followed by an upward price rebound. * Given the conflicting signals, I would say that the short-term price movement is uncertain, but slightly leaning towards a **downward** movement, with a potential target of 147.25 if the pair breaks through 150.05. **Long-term (next few weeks/months):** * The US Dollar's outlook remains firm due to expectations of moderate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could support the USD/JPY pair. * Japan's National core CPI acceleration could lead to interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, which could weaken the JPY and support the USD/JPY pair. * Technical analysis suggests a potential rise to 153.88-156.74 if the price breaks above 151.54, and a clearance above 149.30 could extend the mean reversion rebound to 151.95. * Based on these factors, I would say that the long-term price movement is expected to be **upward**, with a potential target of 159.05 or higher. Please note that these assessments are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new information becomes available. Result: ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(2) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the expected price movement for the USD/JPY pair: **Short-term (next few days):** * The pair is expected to test the support area near 151.65, which suggests a potential short-term decline. * However, the forecast also mentions a potential rebound upwards to continue growth above 159.05, indicating a possible short-term bounce. * Overall, the short-term outlook is neutral to slightly bearish, with a possible range-bound movement between 151.65 and 159.05. **Long-term (next few weeks/months):** * The technical analysis suggests that the pair is moving within a bullish channel, indicating a long-term uptrend. * The forecast mentions a potential growth above 159.05, which supports the long-term bullish outlook. * The fundamental factors, such as the potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, also support the long-term strength of the US Dollar. * Overall, the long-term outlook is bullish, with a potential target above 159.05. In summary, the USD/JPY pair is expected to experience a short-term decline or range-bound movement, but the long-term outlook remains bullish, with a potential target above 159.05. Result: ST=Down LT=Up
Long
by orbborisson
3
USDJPY BUY | Idea Trading AnalysisUSDJPY is moving UP. The chart broke through the dynamic resistance, which now acts as support. We expect a decline in the channel after testing the current level. Hello Traders, here is the full analysis. I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity USDJPY I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. ------------------- Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad
Long
by TheGrove
9
USD/JPY Slips as Verbal Intervention Boosts Yen, US Data LoomsThe Japanese Yen (JPY) found some support on Thursday following verbal intervention from officials, which helped reverse part of the previous session’s steep losses against the US Dollar (USD). This recovery dragged the USD/JPY pair down below the 152.00 region during the early European session, after hitting its lowest level since July 31 overnight. However, doubts about the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) ability to raise interest rates further—exacerbated by Japan’s upcoming election-related uncertainties—could limit the Yen’s rebound. Key US Economic Data on the Horizon Traders are now focusing on the upcoming US economic data, which could significantly impact the USD/JPY pair. The release of the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the S&P Global PMI figures is expected to drive market sentiment in the second half of the day. Forecasts suggest that new applications for unemployment benefits could climb towards the 250,000 mark, indicating potential weakness in the US labor market. If confirmed, this data could trigger a bearish reaction in the USD, putting additional pressure on the USD/JPY. Volatility Ahead for USD/JPY With these critical data points set to shape market dynamics, traders should brace for potential volatility in the USD/JPY pair. A higher-than-expected rise in jobless claims could challenge the recent bullish trend of the US Dollar, offering further support to the JPY. Technical Outlook From a technical perspective, the price has shown some reaction to the overhead supply zone. However, traders will likely wait for the outcome of the US economic releases before committing to a bearish setup. If the data comes in softer than expected, it could trigger a stronger JPY rebound, potentially setting up for a bearish move in USD/JPY. Conversely, if the data surprises to the upside, the pair might regain some bullish momentum. Patience is key as traders await clearer signals post-data release to determine the next directional move for USD/JPY. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
12
USDJPY with two probabilities for 10/30/2024This is my idea Nbr 17 after 15 ✅️ USDJPY with a high probability to make the decision for 10/30/2024 ✅️ : 🔸️If the price exceeds the green bar 🟩, with the bar closing in the hour above: there will be a high chance of entering a purchase as indicated in the chart, respecting the day, news and the stop loss. 🔸️If the price exceeds the red bar 🟥, with the bar closing in the hour below: there will be a high chance of entering a sale as indicated in the chart, respecting the day, news, and the stop loss.
Short
by Abderrahmane_24
1
USDJPY - Yen will continue to strengthen?!The USDJPY currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. In case of correction due to the release of today's economic data, we can see the demand zone and buy in those two zones with the appropriate risk reward. Yesterday, the Bank of Japan kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, as expected. The Japanese government maintained its overall economic assessment for October, continuing to believe that the economy is recovering at a moderate pace. However, it downgraded its outlook on production, indicating that output might be facing challenges and may struggle to grow significantly. Meanwhile, Japan’s Economy Minister, Akazawa, stated that currency movements are being closely monitored, and proposed policies from other parties will be reviewed. He also noted that a weaker yen could lead to a decrease in income and private consumption, particularly if wage growth is insufficient. According to a recent Reuters survey of economists, 103 out of 111 economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 0.25% in November and December of this year, bringing the rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Additionally, 74 out of 96 surveyed economists predict that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate will drop to 3% to 3.25% or higher by the end of 2025. A recent report from CIBC suggests that a 3% growth in U.S. GDP is unlikely to overheat the economy. CIBC believes that the U.S. economy can sustain growth at this rate while continuing its rate-cutting cycle. The report shows that U.S. economic growth has reached 2.8%, slightly below analysts’ 3% expectation. Nonetheless, the details reflect a robust economic performance, with domestic consumption offsetting the negative effects of net trade. CIBC analysts argue that 3% growth should be seen as a new measure of economic capacity rather than a sign of overheating. They point to improvements in productivity and cooling labor markets and inflation, asserting that
Long
by Ali_PSND
USDJPY / OVERALL UNDER DOWNWARD PRESSURE / 4HUSD JPY 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS Supply Zone (154.685 - 154.975), This range is seen as a resistance level where the price might struggle to break above, as sellers are likely to dominate. If the price stabilizes in this zone, it suggests that a reversal could occur, potentially leading to a decline. Potential Decline to Demand Zone (150.331 - 149.075) , If the price reverses from the supply zone, the expectation is that it could drop to the demand zone, where buying pressure is higher, and the price might find support. Downtrend Confirmation , For a confirmed downtrend, prices would need to break below the demand zone, signaling strong selling pressure and possibly more declines. Uptrend Confirmation (157.135 - 157.873) , Conversely, if prices can break above the supply zone, it would signal a potential uptrend. The target in this case would be the next resistance zone, around 157.135 to 157.873.
Short
by ArinaKarayi
Bearish drop off 50% Fibonacci resistance?USD/JPY is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit., Entry: 152.83 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 153.54 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Take profit: 151.61 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets