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U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen

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USDJPY trade ideas

Consolidation Midweek Rally #8I wanted the price to break last week’s high to confirm that it was moving upward, and this happened on Tuesday. I decided to wait for Wednesday, specifically after 2:30 PM NY time, to see if the price would return to the 15-minute order block. However, that didn’t happen. Instead, the price formed a double bottom, and below it, there was a 4-hour order block and the high of the mitigation block. Seeing this, I chose to step back and not trade. On Friday, I also didn’t trade because I avoid trading after three consecutive daily candles, even though I expected the price to create the high of the week on that day.
by Bufalodorato
Lingrid | USDJPY Optimal ZONE to SHORT the MarketThe price perfectly fulfilled my previous idea. It hit the TP level. FX:USDJPY is currently pulling toward the resistance zone and appears to be forming an ABC pattern upward, indicating a complex pullback. Given that the overall trend is still bearish, I anticipate that the market may move down to retest the support level. The price previously consolidated above this zone before breaking through, highlighting its significance. Therefore, I expect the market to rebound from the resistance and then retest the middle of the range zone, where we might see further reactions as traders assess the potential for continuation or reversal. My goal is support zone around 150.235 Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
Short
by Lingrid
4
A USD C Leg Would Offer Mega Profits. Here's a complimenting USDJPY analysis to the C leg hypothesis explained in the below post. I've been buying USDJPY a lot recently. Heavily loading up into the aggressive crash moves intraday, moving stops to even and by this point fully expecting that nice clean rip to new daily highs, where I begin to trail stops and look to repeat into the next crash. It's started to feel really easy of late, and that's always a good reason to be cautious. Because although it is true there are times it's easy trading the trend, it is always easy trading the trend heading into the reversal. Heading into a reversal aggressive dip buying is heavily rewarded. That's what makes it feel like a good idea to dumb stuff into the reversal. The USD reversal here would be an epic trade. A case can be made for the high of USDJPY being in now and this being a bull trap rally. Inside of that case, we'd now be at the area where there is most risk of it turning. We have the 76 rejection and the 61 retest. In a strong move, we're usually going to see the 61 reject. If the USDJPY high is not made with the 76 but there is going to be a big high in it, then we'd likely see a butterfly. That'd mean a hyper bullish USD in the near future but that being a false breakout. Top to bottom that trade would pay a little over $300 per 0.01 traded. These are big numbers when you consider your risk per 100 pips is $7 trading at 0.01. USDJPY could have a little more go to fill local short level but to bet on the high being in the risk on the trade looks like this. If that trade fails as a reversal pattern then usually the most bearish thing you can hope for is a big spike to fill the butterfly. That's another great level to try to fade the move inside of a narrow zone but given that if the 76 trade fails usually the best case is a bearish butterfly - this is really bad for immediate term shorts. It'll go parabolic even if you're generally right. And if you're entirely wrong it's just going to trend against you. All pullbacks ending higher than the last. I feel like a lot of the times there are major reversals in USDJPY we see a really strong open to the week. This can come off a gap down. I remember a big USDJPY recent high being a 50 pip gap down, recovery and then 200 pips up in a minute into the high. Anything tell tale like that early in the week I'd probably be interested in fading around the resistance levels. If we keep rallying through I'll stick with my buying all dips strategy with USDJPY and review it at the 1.61 if we get there. But if we see a sharp break in this I'm going to start to act as if we're inside of a developing C leg. Inside of a big C leg the small chart action would usually be something like this. And this would pick up momentum as it went until it turned into a full blown crash. If all of that happens, I think we'll see the most spectacular of USD rallies after it. A mighty crash in USD could set the scene for a really big and sustained rally. Would be really obvious to look for if the C leg idea hits.
Short
by holeyprofit
USD/JPY awaiting the FED!The USD/JPY exchange rate as of December 12, 2024, reflects an increase of approximately 0.4%, reaching 152.50, driven by November's U.S. inflation data and expectations surrounding Federal Reserve monetary policy. The published data shows a 0.3% monthly rise in headline CPI, slightly above the 0.2% consensus, while core CPI remained stable at 0.3%. On an annual basis, headline inflation rose to 2.7% from 2.6%, and core CPI was steady at 3.3%, in line with projections. These results reinforce expectations for an interest rate cut by the Fed at the upcoming FOMC meeting, with an estimated 84% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction. Markets interpret the data as a sign that inflation is under control, potentially allowing the Fed to adopt a more accommodative policy to support economic growth. The 10-year Treasury yield, stable at 4.226%, indicates relative calm in bond markets, which may help limit volatility in the U.S. dollar. USD/JPY continues to benefit from the yield differential between U.S. and Japanese assets, supporting dollar strength. However, upcoming economic data, such as the PPI and initial jobless claims, will be crucial in confirming or adjusting market expectations. The 152.50 level represents a critical zone: a break above 152.80 could signal further bullish momentum toward 2024 highs, while a pullback might bring the pair to key support at 151.50. The current scenario suggests a consolidative phase, but incoming data and the Fed's decision will be pivotal in shaping future direction.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USDJPY Buy ForecastUSDJPY New forecast👨‍💻👨‍💻 Note: Follow proper risk management rules. Never risk more then 2% of your total capital. Money management is the key of success in this business...... Set your own SL & TP. Please support this idea with a Like and COMMENT if you find it useful click "follow" on our profile if you will like these type of trading ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!! lemme know your thoughts in the comment sec...
Long
by King_CityStar_Fx
USD/JPY on the Rebound: Key Insights Ahead of November NFPThe USD/JPY currency pair is witnessing the US Dollar regaining some strength following its reversal on November 15. As market participants look ahead to the critical US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for November, they are eager for insights into the current labor market conditions. Economists predict that the US economy added around 200,000 jobs, a significant increase compared to October's modest gain of just 12,000. It's worth noting that the NFP estimates for various sectors were impacted by hurricanes that occurred last month. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate is projected to rise slightly to 4.2% from the previous figure of 4.1%. Attention will also be focused on the US Average Hourly Earnings data, which will provide clues about wage growth trends. An uptick in wages can drive consumer spending, potentially fueling inflation and reigniting concerns about sustained price pressures. Such developments may influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's stance ahead of its December meeting. Currently, the USD is experiencing a rebound from a demand support zone. Although seasonal forecasts indicate a possible bearish trend, there is potential for the USD to strengthen further, possibly testing the 155 level again. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
USD/JPY Sell Setup: Strategy OverviewTechnical Insight: Current Market Position: The USD/JPY is hovering around a critical resistance level at 157.719, with historical data showing a struggle to break above 160.000. Price Action: The chart indicates a recent failed breakout attempt, now acting as a potential reversal signal. This is highlighted by the downward arrows, suggesting a sell-off after hitting resistance. Fundamental Backdrop: US Economic Health: Stronger than expected economic data from the US, especially employment and inflation figures, could bolster the USD. However, any dovish signals from the Fed might weaken the dollar. Japanese Economic Factors: Japan's economic policies, particularly any intervention by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to weaken the yen, could play a role in the currency's valuation against the dollar. Trading Strategy: Sell Entry: Optimal entry would be on a confirmed rejection from the current resistance, ideally with a bearish candlestick pattern or a significant wick at the top. Profit Targets: Primary Target: Aim for a sell-off to 151.350, a level where the price found previous support. Secondary Target: If momentum continues, look towards 151.000, which could serve as a deeper support level. Risk Management: Stop Loss: Set above the recent high at 151.870 to protect against unexpected bullish moves. Position Sizing: Calculate your position size based on the distance to the stop loss, ensuring it aligns with your risk management rules. Additional Considerations: Market Sentiment: Monitor global market sentiment. A shift towards risk aversion often sees capital flows into the yen, potentially strengthening it against the dollar. Geopolitical Events: Keep an eye on any geopolitical developments that might affect either the US or Japan's currency, such as trade negotiations or regional conflicts. Conclusion: The USD/JPY pair offers a strategic sell opportunity based on both technical resistance and potential fundamental shifts. Ensure your trading decisions are informed by both these aspects and manage risk appropriately. This setup, while not guaranteed, provides a structured approach based on current market conditions. Always remember to stay updated with real-time market news and adjust your strategy as needed.
Long
by DreamsForx
4