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USDJPY trade ideas

USDJPY | Smart Money Long Setup – Deep Fib + OB Reaction💴 USDJPY | Institutional Long Play with Perfect OB + Fib Confluence Price gave us an aggressive push off the demand zone, showing clear Smart Money accumulation behavior. This setup is high probability based on Smart Money Concepts (SMC). 🔍 1. Technical Breakdown Strong impulse move upward Clean pullback into the Order Block Confluence with 70.5%–79% Fibonacci retracement zone Price respected the OB zone and printed higher highs That reaction was institutional — no cap 🧢. 🧱 2. Bullish Confluences 🔥 Order Block (OB): Purple demand zone = unmitigated 📐 Fib Sweet Spot: 70.5%–79% = institutional re-entry levels ✅ Strong Wick Rejection: Shows absorption of sell-side liquidity 📈 Market Structure Shift: Break of structure to the upside 🎯 3. Trade Plan Entry: 142.89 (within OB + 70.5%) Stop Loss: 142.00 Take Profit: 145.49 zone This setup targets the -27% fib extension — a classic institutional TP level. ⚖️ 4. RRR (Risk-Reward Ratio) 💰 Entry: 142.89 🔒 SL: 142.00 📍 TP: 145.49 ✅ RRR ≈ 1:2.9 Solid intraday-to-swing play with clean structure. 🧠 5. Key Confirmation Points Break and close above 144.36 = confirmed bullish intent Price respecting 143.44 OB = bulls still in control SL below OB = protected by demand block 💬 Comment “SMC Long Sniper 💹” if you caught this move! 🔄 Share this if you love OB + fib sniper entries 📌 Save this setup for your next demand zone playbook
Long
by ChartNinjas88
2
USDJPY Breakout - Bullish reversal setup in progress...The price has once again respected the 142.100–142.500 support zone, showing strong buying pressure and a potential trend reversal. 🔍 Market Structure Update: Break of descending trendline ✔ Higher lows forming ✔ Bullish breakout above 144.500 in progress ✔ 🔷Two Bullish Scenarios: 🔹Aggressive Continuation: Break and retest above 144.500 could lead to a sharp push toward the 150.700 resistance zone. 🔹Conservative Entry: A potential retest back into the support zone before the next impulsive leg up. Support Zone: 142.000–142.500 Target Zone: 150.700 Key Level to Break: 144.500 🚨 Watch for confirmation before entering. Always manage your risk and never trade without a plan! 📊 Let me know your bias in the comments – Bullish or Bearish? 👍 Like & Follow for more setups! #USDJPY #Forex #TradingView #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #SupportResistance #BreakoutSetup #ForexCommunity
Long
by James-Pipstr
1
USD/JPY Poised for Upside: Momentum Building Toward Key TargetsBy examining the USD/JPY chart on the daily timeframe, we can see that the price is currently trading around 144. Given the momentum, I expect this pair to rise soon. The potential bullish targets are 145.5, 147.35, and 148.65 respectively. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
6
Could the price reverse from here?USD/JPY is rising towards the pivot, which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the pullback support. Pivot: 144.85 1st Support: 142.56 1st Resistance: 145.85 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
USDJPY RESISTED AROUND 140.20From a technical standpoint, USD/JPY found support around the 142.11 level, which triggered a break above the descending trendline on the 4-hour chart. This breakout suggests a shift in momentum, favoring the bulls in the short term. However, the upward movement is currently facing resistance near the minor supply zone at 144.20, where price has temporarily stalled as the market awaits further direction. If bullish momentum continues, a brief pullback to retest the broken trendline is expected, a move that would also align with a nearby demand zone. This potential retracement could offer a fresh buying opportunity, with targets aimed first at clearing the 144.20 resistance. A successful breakout above this level may pave the way toward the psychological resistance at 145.00. On the flip side, if bearish pressure resumes and the pair breaks below the 142.00 support level, the next downside target would be the 141.52 area, further decline will target 140.65 level. Breakout of this levels are not ruled out. On the Radar for the Remainder of the Week: • Wednesday: Richmond Manufacturing Index (6:00 PM GMT+4) will offer a snapshot of U.S. factory activity. Later, the FOMC Meeting Minutes (10:00 PM GMT+4) could reveal key insights into the Fed’s stance on inflation and interest rates. • Thursday: A busy day kicks off with the Preliminary U.S. GDP, a crucial measure of economic performance, followed by Weekly Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales, reflecting labor and housing market trends. • Friday: The focus shifts to Japan with the release of Tokyo Core CPI, which may guide yen sentiment. In the U.S., attention turns to the Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and Consumer Sentiment, indicating household confidence. These datapoints has the tendency to drive prices in the coming days.
by CFI
USD/JPY Breakdown: Is 140 the Next Target? Smart Money Says Yes!USD/JPY is currently in a highly interesting technical and macro phase, characterized by divergences between price action and institutional positioning, negative seasonal signals, and retail sentiment that goes against what would typically be expected in a reversal scenario. Let’s break it down: 1. Institutional Positioning (COT Report) The COT data reveals a mixed picture with bearish implications for USD/JPY: On the USD side, non-commercial traders continue to increase their net long exposure (+2,044 new long contracts this week). However, this rise is almost equally offset by +1,975 new shorts, indicating indecision and hedging activity. For the Japanese Yen, non-commercials (speculators) are significantly rebuilding long JPY positions, while commercials have started covering their short exposure. 📌 Implication: The net flow favors the Yen, meaning bearish pressure on USD/JPY. The increase in JPY long positions reflects expectations of a stronger Yen in the short to medium term. 2. Historical Seasonality Seasonal data reinforces the bearish bias: In May and June, USD/JPY has historically posted negative returns. The 5-year average shows -0.57 in May and -0.76 in June, with both the 2Y and 10Y averages confirming a similar downward seasonal pattern. 📌 Implication: The current seasonal window does not favor a USD rebound vs. the Yen. Historically, the likelihood of downside increases into early summer. 3. Retail Sentiment Retail traders are heavily long, with 64% positioned long on USD/JPY versus 36% short. 📌 Implication: From a contrarian perspective, this is a bearish signal. Markets tend to move against retail positioning, adding further downside risk. 4. Price Action & Technical Structure (Daily Chart) On the weekly chart: Price broke the key 144.00 support decisively, closing the week at 142.81. Structure shows lower highs and lower lows, typical of a bearish trend. RSI is falling but still above oversold levels, leaving room for further downside. First demand zone: 141.50–142.20. A confirmed break could open the way to 140.00–139.80. Key resistance on any pullback: 145.00–146.00. 📌 Implication: The confirmed break of support activated a bearish continuation setup, unless short-term bounces offer new sell opportunities near resistance. 5. Market Depth Market depth shows a strong cluster of long orders above current levels, while short volumes appear fragmented. This suggests any short-term rally could face aggressive selling between 144.50–145.50. 🎯 Conclusion & Operational Outlook The overall context points to a high probability of further downside in USD/JPY over the short to medium term: Smart money is rotating toward the Yen. Seasonal patterns historically support a drop in May–June. Contrarian retail sentiment adds additional bearish weight. The weekly chart confirms a break of structure, opening space below 141.50.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
USDJPY Bullish Pullback Setup – Targeting 145.800 USDJPY has broken out of the previous downtrend structure and is now showing a potential bullish continuation pattern. - The recent impulse move from the demand zone (highlighted in blue) confirms buying interest around 143.600. - The current pullback could offer a buy opportunity, especially if the price retests the 143.600 support zone or forms a higher low. - As long as the price holds above this key support, we expect the pair to continue upward toward the next major resistance at 145.800. USDJPY is forming a clean bullish correction after an impulsive move up. If support at 143.600 holds, the next bullish leg could extend to 145.800. Watch for bullish confirmation near the pullback zone.
Long
by ClearTradingMind
2
USD/JPY Reverses from ResistanceUSD/JPY is poised to snap a three-day winning streak with price reversing today at the 61.8% retracement of the monthly range. A decline of more than 1.5% from the highs puts the immediate focus on the monthly range lows with a break needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend. Monthly open support rests at 143.06 and is backed by the May opening-range lows (ORL) at 142.35. A break below this threshold exposes the yearly low day close (LDC) at 141.56 and key support at the December lows / 61.8% retracement of the 2023 advance at 140.25/49- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Initial resistance stands at 146.15 and is backed by the 78.6% retracement at 147.25. A topside breach / close above the upper parallel (blue) is needed to invalidate the yearly downtrend with subsequent objectives eyed at 148.39/65 and the 200-day moving average / March high-day close (HDC) around 149.46/50. Bottom line: USD/JPY exhausted into technical resistance this month with today’s reversal threatening resumption of the broader downtrend. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to 147.25 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below the monthly range needed to fuel the next leg of the decline. -MB
by FOREXcom
USDJPY H1 I Bullish Reversal Based on the H1 chart analysis, the price is falling our buy entry level at 143.27, a pullback support. Our take profit is set at 144.85, a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. The stop loss is placed at 142.12, a swing low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by Tradu
USDJPY Faces An Intraday Corrective RecoveryUSDJPY Faces An Intraday Corrective Recovery after a bearish impulse, which can later send the price lower from technical and Elliott wave pespective. USDJPY is sharply bouncing after reaching May lows within the wedge pattern for wave »v« of an impulse, so it can be now trading in a higher degree abc correction, which can recover the price back to 145 – 146 resistance area before bears return. Basic bearish Elliott wave pattern shows that a five-wave impulsive decline indicates for more weakness after a corrective three-wave pause.
Short
by ew-forecast
Skeptic | USD/JPY Analysis: Bearish Momentum Fuels Short Setups!Hey everyone, Skeptic here! I know some of you might’ve missed our last USD/CHF short signal that hit a sweet 3:1 R/R—no worries! 😊 The market’s always here, so missing a trade isn’t the end of the world. I’m not here to push FOMO; my goal is to take you on a long-term trading journey, and I’m stoked to have you along for the ride! :))) Let’s get back to USD/JPY and break down the latest action. 📊 Daily Timeframe: The Big Picture First, let’s zoom out and talk about the DXY (US Dollar Index), which recently broke the 99.005 support and turned bearish. This puts USD-based pairs like USD/JPY in the spotlight for short opportunities this week. Here’s what’s happening with USD/JPY: Trend Context: The major trend is bearish. Last week, sellers showed no mercy to buyers, and with DXY’s bearish move, we’re likely to see more of the same this week. Key Level: We’re currently reacting to a major daily support at 142.305. Expect a range or reaction here, so we must wait for confirmation before shorting. Recent Correction: The prior correction reached the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement and seems to have resumed the major bearish trend. With this in mind, let’s zoom into the 4-Hour Timeframe to hunt for long and short setups. 4-Hour Timeframe: Long & Short Setups The 4-hour chart is giving us some clear signals to work with. Here’s the plan: Short Setup: Key Level: The 142.338 level is critical, as it formed a ceiling at 148.569 in the past and acted as support before. Trigger: If we form a lower high and then break below 142.305, open a short position. Confirmation: Use RSI to back up the breakout, ensuring momentum aligns. Why It Works: A lower high signals increasing weakness in this support, making a break more likely. Long Setup: My Take: I personally don’t have a long trigger right now. Both the major and minor trends are downtrends, so going long doesn’t make sense in these conditions. If You Insist: If you’re set on a long, wait for a break above 144.125. But keep it tight—low risk, small stop loss, and take profits quickly once you hit a decent R/R. 💬 Let’s Talk! If this analysis sparked some ideas, give it a quick boost—it really helps! 😊 Got a pair or setup you want me to dive into next? Drop it in the comments, and I’ll tackle it. Thanks for joining me—see you in the next one. Keep trading smart! ✌️
by SkepticWise
3
USDJPY COT and Liquidity AnalysisHey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. It's always good to go with those who move the market here is what I see in their cards. I share my COT - order flow views every weekend. 🎯 Non Commercials added 6K longs nad just 300 shorts, I still see a price coming higher but, first liquidity is lower so it makes more sense to close shorts on lower prices and overall still the exposure seems more bearish. 📍Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage. 💊 Tip if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance. 👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions. Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. "Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own." — David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
by David_Perk
26
USD/JPY - H1 - Channel Breakout (17.05.2025) The Pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Channel Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 142.40 2nd Support – 140.17 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
62
USDJPY Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell! Take a look at our analysis for USDJPY. Time Frame: 12h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is on a crucial zone of supply 145.162. The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 142.359 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
Japan's Bond Market Crisis: A Global WarningIntroduction: The Shattering of an Illusion Japan’s government bond market, the world’s second-largest, has long been a cornerstone of global financial stability. With a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 260%, Japan’s fiscal structure has relied on a captive bond market, a compliant central bank, and a political system willing to defer fiscal reckoning. Yet, in May 2025, this delicately balanced system began to unravel. For two consecutive days, Japan’s 30-year and 40-year government bonds (JGBs) found no buyers, marking a historic collapse in confidence. The 20-year JGB auction recorded its weakest demand since 2012, with yields on 20-, 30-, and 40-year bonds soaring to multi-decade highs. This isn’t a minor market hiccup—it’s a structural breakdown with global implications. This article explores the causes, consequences, and global ramifications of Japan’s bond market crisis, positioning it as a warning for other heavily indebted nations, particularly the United States. We’ll examine the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) yield curve control (YCC) policy, the erosion of fiscal credibility, the unwinding of the yen carry trade, and the ripple effects on global bond markets, the US dollar, and gold as a safe-haven asset. By dissecting these dynamics, we aim to provide a comprehensive understanding of why Japan’s crisis matters and how it could foreshadow a broader sovereign debt reckoning. The Anatomy of Japan’s Bond Market Breakdown A Captive Market Unravels Japan’s bond market has been a model of repression for decades. Domestic investors—pension funds, banks, and insurance companies—have been compelled to hold JGBs due to limited investment alternatives and cultural preferences for stability. The BoJ, holding 43.3% of JGBs as of January 2025, has underpinned this system through massive bond purchases, ensuring low yields even as debt ballooned to 1.35 quadrillion yen ($8.84 trillion). However, this captive market is no longer captive. The May 2025 auctions revealed a stark reality: investors are recoiling. The 20-year JGB auction saw a bid-to-cover ratio—the measure of demand—plummet to its lowest since 2012, with the spread between investor bids and government offers (the “tail”) reaching its worst level since 1987. Yields on 20-year bonds hit 2.555% (highest since 2000), 30-year bonds reached 3.185% (a record since 1999), and 40-year bonds surged to 3.635% (an all-time high). These spikes reflect a market no longer willing to absorb Japan’s debt at suppressed yields. The End of Yield Curve Control The BoJ’s yield curve control (YCC) policy, introduced in 2016, capped 10-year JGB yields to maintain low borrowing costs. By purchasing bonds en masse, the BoJ suppressed volatility and ensured market liquidity. However, as inflation rose above the BoJ’s 2% target (reaching 3.6% overall CPI in 2025), the central bank began tapering its purchases, signaling a shift from ultra-loose policy. This tapering has exposed the fragility of YCC. The long end of the yield curve—30- and 40-year bonds—is most sensitive to inflation and fiscal risk. As the BoJ steps back, market forces are driving yields higher, undermining the central bank’s control. The lack of buyers for super-long JGBs highlights a crisis of confidence in Japan’s fiscal sustainability, exacerbated by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s comparison of Japan’s fiscal state to Greece’s during its 2010 debt crisis. Fiscal Recklessness and Political Inertia Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio, at 263%, is among the highest globally. Decades of deficit spending, fueled by quantitative easing and political reluctance to implement austerity, have created a fiscal powder keg. Calls for consumption tax cuts ahead of the July 2025 upper house election further erode investor trust, as they signal increased borrowing without structural reforms. Prime Minister Ishiba’s resistance to these cuts has done little to restore confidence, as markets demand a credible path to fiscal balance. Global Implications: The Yen Carry Trade and Liquidity Shock The Collapse of the Yen Carry Trade The yen carry trade—borrowing in low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding foreign assets—has been a cornerstone of global liquidity since the 1990s. Japanese investors, seeking returns unavailable domestically, poured trillions into US Treasuries, emerging market bonds, and other assets. However, rising JGB yields are reversing this flow. As Japanese yields approach or exceed foreign yields (e.g., 30-year JGBs at 3.185% vs. US 30-year Treasuries at 5%), investors are repatriating capital, unwinding carry trades. This unwinding is a global margin call. Emerging markets, reliant on Japanese capital, face sudden outflows, increasing FX volatility. The yen’s strengthening, as capital returns to Japan, disrupts global currency markets. In the US, the Treasury market—dependent on foreign buyers like Japan—faces pressure as Japanese institutions sell or reduce purchases of US bonds. Echoes in the US Treasury Market The US is not immune. A recent 20-year Treasury auction saw weak demand, with primary dealers absorbing 17% of issuance—a sign of desperation. The 30-year Treasury yield has climbed above 5.1%, reflecting rising borrowing costs. Moody’s downgrade of US debt to Aa1 from Aaa, citing a $36 trillion debt burden and unsustainable deficits, has amplified concerns. President Trump’s proposed “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” reviving 2017 tax cuts, is projected to add $3.3 trillion to US debt by 2034, pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio to 125%. With $9 trillion in US debt maturing within the next 12 months, the Treasury market faces a refinancing challenge of unprecedented scale. If foreign buyers, including Japanese institutions, step back, the US could face a structural demand breakdown, forcing higher yields and tightening financial conditions. The Sovereign Debt Crisis Blueprint Japan as the Fuse, US as the Bomb Japan’s bond market crisis is a blueprint for what could unfold in the US. Both nations share structural vulnerabilities: high debt-to-GDP ratios, reliance on central bank intervention, and political dysfunction. Japan’s breakdown demonstrates that even a captive market can rebel when trust erodes. The BoJ’s loss of control over the yield curve mirrors potential risks for the Federal Reserve, which faces rising long-end yields despite its efforts to manage expectations. The metaphor of Japan as the fuse and the US as the bomb is apt. Japan’s crisis is a warning shot, but the US—given its role as the world’s largest bond market ($51 trillion) and the dollar’s reserve currency status—represents a far larger systemic risk. A US debt crisis would disrupt global bond markets, equity valuations (e.g., the S&P 500’s recent wobble), and liquidity flows. The Role of Bond Vigilantes Bond vigilantes—investors who sell bonds to discipline profligate governments—are reawakening. In Japan, their absence from JGB auctions signals a rejection of fiscal recklessness. In the US, rising Treasury yields and weak auction demand suggest vigilantes are saddling up. Central banks’ ability to suppress yields is waning, exposing markets to the harsh reality of supply and demand. The US Dollar and Gold: A Shifting Landscape The Dollar’s Eroding Trust The US dollar’s dominance is not immediately threatened—neither the euro nor the renminbi offers a viable alternative due to fragmentation and control, respectively. However, self-inflicted wounds—fiscal recklessness, political gridlock, and the dollar’s weaponization in trade disputes—are eroding trust. A structural breakdown in Treasury demand, driven by Japan’s repatriation or global risk repricing, could push US borrowing costs higher, weakening the dollar’s appeal. Gold as a Judgment on Fiat Gold is resurging as a safe-haven asset amid this turmoil. Unlike sovereign bonds, gold offers no coupon, no intervention, and no deficits—it simply exists. As trust in central banks and fiat currencies falters, gold’s appeal grows. Bitcoin, another scarce asset, has hit $107,322, reflecting similar dynamics, but gold’s historical stability and lack of counterparty risk make it a preferred hedge. Analysts like Stack Hodler argue that central bank credibility is “shattering in real time,” driving demand for gold and other neutral assets. Conclusion: Preparing for the Exit Japan’s bond market breakdown is not an isolated event—it’s a warning for the global financial system. The BoJ’s loss of yield curve control, the collapse of the yen carry trade, and the erosion of fiscal credibility signal the end of an era of sovereign bond repression. The US, with its ballooning debt and reliance on foreign buyers, is on a similar trajectory. As trust in central planning wanes, capital will flee to assets like gold, which stand outside the fiat system. Investors must prepare an exit plan. Diversifying into gold, reducing exposure to long-dated bonds, and monitoring central bank actions are critical steps. Japan’s crisis is the fuse; the US could be the bomb. When trust in sovereign debt crumbles, the question isn’t whether the system will break—it’s how long until detonation. References Reuters: Japan's super-long bond yields soar to records as market frets about demand IndraStra: From Safe Haven to Fault Line: How Japan’s Bond Crisis Threatens Global Markets American Thinker: Bond Market Shock: Is a New Financial Crisis Looming? Wikipedia: National debt of Japan Wolf Street: Japan’s 30-Year and 40-Year Bonds Crater, Yields Spike @onechancefreedm: Japan Is the Fuse. The U.S. Is the Bomb @DarioCpx: The BOJ losing control of long-term JGB Yields
by RoadToAMillionClub
Bullish Reversal on Risk-On Shift and Channel BreakoutCMCMARKETS:USDJPY USD/JPY surged as risk appetite returned after a U.S. federal court blocked President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs, undermining demand for safe-haven assets like the yen. Meanwhile, weak demand in Japan’s 40-year bond auction raised concerns over fiscal stability, adding further downside pressure to JPY. Technically, the pair broke above a downward channel and formed a bullish engulfing pattern near the 144.90 demand zone. If price consolidates above 145.00, a test of the 148.15 resistance zone is possible. Traders now eye upcoming U.S. GDP and PCE inflation data for direction on Fed policy. Resistance : 148.14 , 148.67 Support : 144.90 , 144.42
Long
by ATFX_Global