Trading Recommendations and Analysis for USDJPYThe technical picture on Monday may shape future developments in the medium term. The week began a gap up, followed by the formation of a long upper shadow. The daily close occurred exactly at the support level of 146.11 thereby closing the gap.
Today's trading also opened exactly at the same level, and the candle is already black in the early hours of trading. This defines Monday's movement as false, thus creating a strong bearish signal, with a potential breakdown of the 143.45 support and a subsequent decline toward the MACD line, which coincides with the target level of 141.70. The Marlin oscillator has turned downward. its return to negative territory will add additional pressure on the price.
In the H4 timeframe, the price has consolidated below the 146.11 level, making it easier to settle below the MACD line eventually.
A break below 145.48 -the June 11 high-will serve as confirmation. The Marlin oscillator appears to be fixed in bearish territory and has joined the new downward movement.
USDJPY trade ideas
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back to daily support USDJPY touched 148 this morning ahead of US PMI.
According to methodology
1. Resistance Zone:
• The 0.125 level (147.820) acted as a resistance point where selling pressure overwhelmed buying pressure, causing the price to reverse downward. Since the price reached 148.000 (just above 147.820), it tested and failed to sustain above this level, reinforcing its role as a barrier.
2. Daily Support
•The daily support trend line (yellow box) has been an area to watch as price continues to try and get over the 148 hump. Until then, this pair is going to wedge until a break confirmation.
Japan PPI slips to 10-month lowThe Japanese yen is showing limited movement on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 146.45, up 0.10% on the day.
Japan's Producer Price Index rose 2.9% y/y in June, down from an upwardly revised 3.3% in May and matching the consensus. This marked the lowest increase since August 2024. On a monthly basis, PPI fell 0.2%, a second straight decline after a 0.1% decline in May.
The PPI report signals that underlying inflation pressures are dropping at the producer level, which could delay the BoJ's plans to hike rates and normalize policy. The BoJ has been in a wait-and-see stance since it raised rates in January, exercising caution in a turbulent economic environment. The Bank of Japan held rates in June and meets next on July 31.
The FOMC minutes indicated a broad consensus that the Fed will deliver additional rate cuts this year. The pace of those cuts, however, is up for debate. Some members favored cutting as soon as the July meeting, while others were more cautious and wanted to see where inflation and employment were headed. President Trump's tariffs have not boosted inflation so far, but the tariff effect on inflation could be felt in the following months and the Fed remains cautious. Fed Chair Powell has stuck to his guns, pushing back against persistent calls from President Trump to lower rates.
Fed policymakers are keeping a close eye on the US labor market, which has softened but not deteriorated. Earlier, unemployment claims dropped to 227 thousand, down from a revised 232 thousand in the previous release and below the consensus of 235 thousand.
USDJPY Short Setup – Supply Zone Reaction After Structure Break After a clear break of structure (BOS) to the downside around the 145.92 level, USDJPY entered a retracement phase and is now retesting the supply zone created by the last bearish move. This area overlaps with the previous support turned resistance, as well as the dynamic resistance of the moving average, which strengthens the confluence.
We also had a Change of Character (CHOCH) earlier in the structure, marking a shift in momentum from bullish to bearish. The current price action has formed a lower high beneath the supply zone, suggesting that sellers are likely to defend this area.
I'm now watching for rejection signs from this 146.25–146.35 zone, which could confirm the bearish continuation. If price fails to break above this supply and shows weakness (e.g., bearish engulfing or long-wick rejections), I’ll look for entry opportunities to short.
Target:
The first short-term target is a move back to the BOS level at 145.92
A break below that could open the path to 144.09, the next significant support and previous demand zone
Summary:
This setup is based on classic smart money concepts: BOS, supply zone reaction, and a structural lower high. I’ll remain bearish unless the supply is broken cleanly with strong bullish momentum.
USD/JPY: Still a Safe-Haven Tug of WarUSD/JPY had surged past 147 on the back of Trump’s tariff letter to Japan—but quickly pulled back as risk appetite stabilized and Treasury yields softened. Price action now sits around the low-146s.
Technically, the 100-day SMA is providing key support just below 146.00. If bulls hold this level, we could see another push toward 147.20–148.00. On the downside, any surprise from upcoming Fed speakers or Japanese trade negotiations could send the pair testing the 144.00 zone again. Traders are watching Osaka closely, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to meet Japanese officials at the World Expo, which could shape sentiment fast.
Smart 15-Min Entry on USDJPY – Clear Plan with 2.33 R/R📢 Hey Guys;
I've placed a buy limit order on USDJPY at a key support level.
🔵 Entry: 145.956
🔴 Stop Loss: 145.743
🟢 Targets:
• TP1: 146.069
• TP2: 146.232
• TP3: 146.468
📐 Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.33
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USDJPY Pre-Breakout Setup – Eyes on 145.310 for Bullish EntryThe recent structure on USDJPY (4H chart) shows a bullish shift supported by a strong double bottom formation within a defined demand zone. After a clean impulse from the bottom, price is now consolidating below the key resistance.
🔹 Trade Idea:
I am patiently waiting for the price to break and close above 145.310 to confirm bullish continuation. Entry is valid only above this level to avoid false breakouts.
🔹 Technical Highlights:
- Price rebounded from a strong demand zone with a double bottom.
- A new bullish leg formed, approaching the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
- A clear impulse-correction structure signals potential for further upside if resistance is broken.
🔹 Trade Plan:
- Buy Above: 145.310 (confirmation breakout)
- Stop Loss: 144.40 (below structure and 0.382 Fib)
- Target: 146.900 (aligned with 1.618–2.0 Fibonacci extension)
⚠️ Note: No trade if price fails to break and hold above the entry trigger. Patience is key.