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U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen

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USDJPY trade ideas

USD/JPY pair struggles due to a weaker US DollarOn the JPY side, nothing has changed fundamentally, and the currency has been mainly driven by the risk sentiment. As a reminder, the BoJ kept interest rates unchanged at 0.5% and reduced the bond tapering plan for fiscal year 2026 as expected at the last meeting. The BoJ continues to place a great deal on the US-Japan trade deal and the evolution of inflation. USD/JPY is moving lower despite the disappointing Industrial Production report from Japan. The report showed that Industrial Production increased by +0.5% month-over-month in May, compared to analyst forecast of +3.5%. However, I think that if we respect this area, we might see upward momentum coming soon.
by TRADINGACPVIP
MarketBreakdown | USDJPY, USDCAD, BITCOIN, SILVER Here are the updates & outlook for multiple instruments in my watch list. 1️⃣ #USDJPY daily time frame 🇺🇸🇯🇵 The market nicely respected a rising trend line and bounced from that, forming a high momentum bullish candle. I think that the pair will continue rising and reach 145.8 level soon. 2️⃣ #USDCAD daily time frame 🇺🇸🇨🇦 The price is currently approaching an important confluence zone based on a falling trend line and a horizontal support. I will expect a pullback from that. 3️⃣ #BITCOIN #BTCUSD daily time frame The price successfully violated a resistance line of a bullish flag pattern and closed above that. It is a critical bullish signal. I believe that the price will test a current high then and will violate that with a high probability. 4️⃣ #SILVER #XAGUSD daily time frame 🪙 The market broke a resistance line of a bullish flag. Uptrend is going to continue, and the price is going to reach 37,14 level soon. Do you agree with my market breakdown? ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by VasilyTrader
9
USDJPYUSDJPY Exchange Rate USDJPY: 144.495(July 5, 2025) The pair has been trading in the 144.0–145.0 range in early July, reflecting recent yen strength and a broadly weaker US dollar and japan economic outlook. 10-Year Government Bond Yields Country 10-Year Yield Date Japan 1.45% US 4.31-4.38% Yield Spread (US10Y - JP10Y): 2.86 percentage points (US yield higher) Policy Interest Rates Country Policy Rate Japan 0.50% US 4.25–4.50% Key Insights USDJPY: The yen has strengthened in 2025, with USDJPY falling from above 160 earlier in the year to the mid-144s in July. This reflects narrowing yield differentials and shifting global risk sentiment. Bond Yields: The US 10-year yield remains elevated at 4.31-4.38%, while Japan’s 10-year yield is at 1.45-1.43%, since 2019 jp10y is on the rise ,reflecting japan strong economic outlook Yield Differential: The US-Japan 10-year bond yield spread is 2.86%, favoring the US dollar. However, this spread has narrowed from earlier highs, contributing to recent yen strength. Interest Rate Policy: The Federal Reserve maintains a 4.25–4.50% target range, with markets expecting possible cuts later in 2025. The Bank of Japan holds its policy rate at 0.50%, the highest since 2008, but remains cautious about further hikes due to growth and inflation uncertainties. Summary Table Metric US Japan Differential Policy Rate 4.25–4.50% 0.50% 3.75–4.00% 10-Year Bond Yield 4.31% 1.45% 2.86% Market Implications USDJPY Direction: The narrowing yield spread and expectations of Fed rate cuts have pressured USDJPY lower, supporting the yen. Bond Differential: The still-wide, but narrowing, US-Japan yield gap remains a key driver for capital flows and currency moves. Interest Rate Outlook: Any shift in Fed or BOJ policy will directly impact both the yield spread and USDJPY direction in the coming months. #usdjpy
Long
by Shavyfxhub
Bearish reversal?USD/JPY has rejected off the pivot and could potentially drop to the 38.2% Fibonacci support. Pivot: 145.22 1st Support: 144.17 1st Resistance: 145.91 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
USD/JPY loses bulk of NFP-related gainsThe USD/JPY has given back a bulk of yesterday's NFP-driven gains. Although the data was not as strong as the headlines suggested, the fact that we saw decent moves in bond and equity markets suggests investors were overall impressed by the figures. So it seems the market is preparing itself for some more tariff-related volatility as we approach the 9 July deadline, when 'Liberation Day' tariffs will revert. Trump has suggested letters are being sent out to trading partners over the next few days, informing them of their new tariff rate. If you recall, during the worst of April's volatility, the likes of the franc, euro and yen were all outperforming. Could we see a similar pattern this time? Well, looking at the USD/JPY, traders have certainly sold into yesterday's rally. But we need a more decisive breakdown of support between 140.00-140.25 now to trigger some long side liquidation. Below this area, key support comes in around 142.50. Resistance comes in at 145.00, followed by 146.00. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
by FOREXcom
USDJPY 4-Hour Technical Analysis (Smart Money Concept Breakdown)📈 Overall Market Structure Overview: The chart reflects a multi-phase Smart Money playbook, consisting of: Bullish channel structure Breakout followed by liquidity sweep Supply zone flip to demand Price mitigation and structure shift Anticipated reaction zone for upcoming move 🔎 Phase-by-Phase Analysis: 🧱 1. Ascending Channel Formation Price was moving upward in a controlled bullish ascending channel, suggesting institutional accumulation with planned distribution above highs. The channel breakout was the first significant liquidity event, where early breakout traders were baited. 💧 2. Fakeout and Supply Interchange into Demand (Ellipse Zone) Once the channel broke, price sharply reversed, retracing into a previous supply zone. However, institutions defended this zone, flipping it into a demand area. This behavior, marked with the blue ellipse, signals “Supply Interchange in Demand” – a core SMC concept. Here, orders were absorbed Liquidity was trapped below A bullish push confirmed institutional intent 🎯 3. Previous Target Hit – Completion of Bullish Leg Price made a strong rally from the demand zone, hitting the previous target near 147–148 zone. This bullish leg created a Major Break of Structure (BOS) confirming bullish dominance at that phase. ⚠️ 4. Distribution Begins: Shift in Momentum After reaching the Major BOS area, price failed to hold higher levels. A decline followed, indicating distribution by smart money. The reaction was sharp and consistent, creating lower highs, signaling weakness. 🔄 5. Minor CHoCH Formation – Early Reversal Signal A Minor Change of Character (CHoCH) occurred around the 144.000–143.000 area. This is a key transition, where smart money transitions from bullish intent to potential bearish delivery. 📦 6. Next Target Zone – Bullish POI (Point of Interest) The chart identifies a next target demand zone around 141.800–141.200, marked in green. This zone: Holds unmitigated demand Sits below a recent liquidity pool Aligns with past support This is where Smart Money could re-enter, offering a long opportunity if a bullish CHoCH or BOS forms from that zone. 📊 Trade Scenarios & Forecast: 🔻 Bearish Short-Term Play (Sell Setup): If price respects current resistance (144.500–145), and a lower high forms: Short entry opportunity Target: 142.000–141.200 demand zone Confirmation: Strong bearish candle, CHoCH below minor support 🔺 Bullish Reversal Play (Buy Setup): At the demand zone: Look for bullish reaction + CHoCH or BOS Long entry potential Target: Retest of 144.000 or even 147.000 if liquidity allows 🔐 Smart Money Tactics in Play: Liquidity Engineering: Price trapped both bulls (at highs) and bears (below ellipse zone) Supply into Demand Flip: A classic trap where supply becomes a launchpad for bullish delivery Minor CHoCH: Early signal of intent change Next POI (Point of Interest): Potential reaccumulation zone below major liquidity grab 🧠 Educational Takeaway: This analysis illustrates: Why breakouts are often traps without confirmation How to identify real institutional zones The role of CHoCH/BOS in planning ahead Importance of waiting for price to come to your levels, not chasing ⚠️ Risk & Caution: News catalysts can cause deviation from technical levels Always use stop loss and proper risk management SMC is about patience and precision, not prediction ✅ Summary: USDJPY is showing early signs of a smart money distribution and a potential pullback toward demand. Watch closely for confirmation at the key zone (141.800–141.200) before engaging long. Until then, short setups on rallies may be favorable.
Short
by GoldMasterTrades
1
USD/JPY SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT Hello, Friends! USD-JPY uptrend evident from the last 1W green candle makes short trades more risky, but the current set-up targeting 142.829 area still presents a good opportunity for us to sell the pair because the resistance line is nearby and the BB upper band is close which indicates the overbought state of the USD/JPY pair. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Short
by EliteTradingSignals
1
USDJPY Forecast – Bullish Roadmap with Key Retracement LevelsUSDJPY is currently sitting around 144.658. From this level, I’m anticipating a short-term retracement down toward the 143.800 zone, which may act as a demand area or liquidity grab before a bounce. From 143.800, price is expected to climb back to 144.646, potentially breaking slightly above into 144.652, where intraday liquidity or stop hunts might occur. If bullish momentum remains strong, a slight retracement into the 145.132 region could follow — possibly retesting a breakout zone or OB — before a final bullish continuation*targeting 147.353. > 🔽 Short-term pullback zone: 143.800 > 🔼 Initial bullish target: 144.646 – 144.652 > 🔁 Expected mid-level retracement: 145.132 > 🎯 Final bullish target: 147.353 > 📍 Current price: 144.658 I’ll be monitoring each key level closely for reactions such as W formations, bullish engulfing candles, or break of internal structure to confirm momentum shifts. 📌 Risk Management Note: This is not financial advice. Always use strict risk management: ✔️ Risk no more than 1–2% per trade ✔️ Use proper **risk-to-reward setups (min 1:2 RR) ✔️ Wait for **clear confirmations before entering ✔️ Protect capital — consistency beats intensity
Long
by The-ultimate-trader
USD/JPY: Battle at Resistance - Bull Run or Rejection?Alright Traders, Here's my breakdown of USD/JPY's next moves: The price has been repeatedly testing a strong resistance zone (those areas I've highlighted). It's really trying to push through, but this resistance is holding firm. Here's the game plan: If price successfully breaks above this resistance, we could see a strong bull run. My target for this move would be the 150 - 151 JPY zone (that yellow highlighted area). However, if price gets rejected from this resistance again, going short could be a good idea. We might see it drop to test the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level, or even further down to the 50% Fibonacci level. I've put this analysis together using Fibonacci retracements, moving averages, trend lines, and price action. Patience is key here. We need to wait for clear confirmation: either the resistance breaks, or price gets rejected and breaks the trendline support for a short entry. Trade smart!
by Sully-X
Good setup to short USDJPYRecently the risk emotions caused by the White House and inflation worries it produced drives long term US Treasury yields rising, with 20-yr yield cross up to 5% once again. Yet, you can see that the yield difference are still at a dropping trend. Moreover, the Fed is expected to cut 125 bps in the next 15 months according to the swap market. Combined with the techincal levels, it's a good price to get into a short position of USDJPY. I don't know about you guys. I'm in
Short
by jtwongresearch
1
USDJPY – Rejection Pressure Builds, Is a Reversal on the HorizonUSDJPY has been rejected for the third time at the diagonal resistance line, forming a potential lower-high pattern that suggests a reversal could be underway. The RSI is dropping from the overbought zone, clearly indicating weakening bullish momentum. If the price breaks below 146.900, a bearish trend may be confirmed, with a possible move toward the lower support area. On the news front, U.S. Treasury yields have stalled after a strong rally, and jobless claims have ticked up slightly—dampening expectations for further Fed rate hikes. This puts pressure on the USD while favoring the safe-haven JPY. Traders should closely monitor the price action around the 149.300 level. Continued rejection could offer a prime shorting opportunity!
Short
by Rocky_trade_
Yen Falls on Weak Trade DataThe Japanese yen weakened to around 148 per dollar on Thursday after disappointing trade data fueled concerns of a technical recession. June’s trade surplus came in at JPY 153.1 billion, well below the JPY 353.9 billion forecast and JPY 221.3 billion from a year earlier. Exports dropped 0.5% YoY, the second straight monthly decline, mainly due to the fallout from U.S. tariffs. These signs have heightened fears of another quarterly contraction for Japan. Resistance is at 147.75, with major support at 146.15.
by ChartMage
Dollar-yen remains at a crossroadsUSDJPY gained more strongly than most other major pairs with the dollar in the aftermath of June’s higher American inflation. One of the key factors here seems to be generally disappointing trade data from Japan and rising concern in some quarters of a technical recession; weaker economic figures challenge the prevailing expectations that the BoJ will continue to hike rates, but a hike on 31 July still seems fairly likely. ¥149, also the area of the 200 SMA, is a key area: a close above there might signal a push up to ¥150 or possibly even higher. However, the price still hasn’t clearly broken above the previous resistance of the 38.2% weekly Fibonacci retracement slightly above ¥148. Another close above there with higher volume of buying might give more confidence of further gains. There isn’t an obvious short-term support. ¥147, the limit of 16 July’s tail, is a possibility, but this isn’t confirmed. The 20 SMA is a lot lower; a move beyond there into the value area with the 50 and 100 SMAs seems very unlikely for now unless there’s major surprising news of tariffs or expectations for monetary policy shift dramatically. This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
by Michael_Stark_Exness
Yen Weakness Deepens as Dollar Strength ResurfacesThe Japanese Yen continues to struggle, extending its multi-session decline against the U.S. Dollar. This morning’s weakness followed disappointing Japanese trade data, with June’s surplus falling well short of expectations due to another sharp contraction in exports, particularly to China. This trend has renewed fears that Japan may be slipping into a technical recession, which has further undermined confidence in the Yen. Beyond trade numbers, Japan’s macro landscape is becoming increasingly fragile. Real wages have declined, inflation is cooling, and the Bank of Japan’s path to normalizing policy now appears more uncertain. Adding to the pressure, political risk is also rising ahead of the upcoming Upper House election, leaving markets without a clear direction from fiscal leadership. In contrast, the U.S. Dollar is enjoying a resurgence. Federal Reserve members, including Williams and Logan, hinted this week that rates could remain higher for longer, particularly as President Trump’s latest wave of tariffs adds to inflation concerns. The administration’s recent clarification that there are no plans to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell has also calmed investor nerves, restoring faith in policy stability. The result: increased demand for the dollar at the Yen’s expense. Technical Outlook: • Current price: Just below 148.60 resistance • Support: 147.90 and 147.50 • Breakout potential: A decisive move above 148.60 could open the door toward 149.60 and even test the psychological 150.00 mark—last seen in March. • Indicators: Price is supported by the 100-hour EMA with positive oscillator alignment. Momentum remains bullish unless support at 147.90 is breached. Takeaway: Expect continued volatility as the Yen reacts to domestic data while USD remains supported by Fed hawkishness and trade tensions.
Long
by FDGCapital
USD/JPY(20250717)Today's AnalysisMarket news: The annual rate of PPI in the United States in June was 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.5%, the lowest since September 2024, and the previous value was revised up from 2.6% to 2.7%. Federal Reserve Beige Book: The economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic. Manufacturing activity declined slightly, and corporate recruitment remained cautious. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 147.97 Support and resistance levels: 150.23 149.38 148.84 147.11 146.56 145.72 Trading strategy: If it breaks through 147.97, consider buying in, and the first target price is 148.84 If it breaks through 147.11, consider selling in, and the first target price is 146.56
Long
by NicolaZhu
Pump Coil Dump Day 1-2-3 USDJPYUSDJPY Reversal Trade. Points to Notice Day 1 - Sets the new week high and low. Establishes a new week closing price as a target for a day 3 setup. Day 2 - Typically expands Mondays range in the direction of the underlying oder flow. This occurs as a pump/ dump leading to the Asia and London coil sideways. Day 3- We take note of the previous day high and low to observe price going into the NY session. In this case Price gave signs of a coiling reversal into the evening setting up for the move below Day 2 closing price. Ideally what you want to see in this template is traders faked into a breakout move in the direction of the pump. This can present as a candle close above yesterdays high or closing price. After trapping traders in we see the change in order flow creating a new lower low. This is the confirmation to look for an entry at the previous days closing price. We set a stop at the high of day 3 level or at the previous days high with a target at the previous days low. In extreme cases we may see a setup that expands to the LOW level. THE ONLY IMPORTANT DATA POINTS. - PREVIOUS DAY HIGH AND LOW - CLOSING PRICE - LOW HOW LEVELS - DAY COUNT MARKETS ONLY DO TWO THINGS - BREAKOUT, FAIL, REVERSE - BREAKOUT, RETEST, TREND. ONLY LEVELS THAT ARE TRADED - PREVIOUS DAY HIGH (STOP LOSS) - PREVIOUS DAY CLOSING PRICE (ENTRY) - PREVIOUS DAY LOW (TARGET) CMCMARKETS:USDJPY FX:EURUSD OANDA:USDJPY
by GiancarloZacc
1