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U.S. Dollar / Mexican Peso

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USDMXN trade ideas

USDMXN To 21.00 By Year End (Read Description)USDMXN had been trading in a tight range in a series of higher lows and lower highs. This is known as an 'ascending triangle' pattern. Now, I dont actually trade triangle patterns, but my trade idea is based off exploiting this patterns flaws to facilitate a trade to the upside. If you look at the NOV 26th Bullish candle that broke the 20.70 highs, there were most likley pending market orders to buy the market on a breakout. Since then it had retraced back into the range. Now my attention turns to the 20.06 low where I suspect there are resting sell-stops of traders who are LONG. Should price trade to that level and reject, I plan to buy as counterparty to those willing sellers at 20.06. Stop-loss at 19.75 Take profit at 21.00
Long
by Randal-TraderState
USDMXN: Trumpconomics impact the Mexican PesoThe announcement of possible 25% across-the-board tariffs by US President-elect Donald Trump has generated trade tensions with Mexico, momentarily affecting the Mexican peso. However, after a conversation between Claudia Sheinbaum and Trump, the USDMXN showed recovery, appreciating almost 1%, reversing previous losses. Mexico's Minister of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, highlighted that the tariffs would not only negatively affect Mexico, but also the US economy, especially the automotive sector, where an increase in production costs and prices for consumers is expected. This uncertainty could continue to affect the volatility of the Mexican peso against the U.S. dollar, depending on the outcome of these negotiations. Additionally, these measures, if implemented, are expected to increase inflation and reduce economic growth in both the U.S. and Mexico, which could further pressure the exchange rate of the Mexican peso against the U.S. dollar. Looking at the technical aspect, there is a lot of selling pressure in the 20.71 pesos per dollar zone and this has caused the stock to depreciate to 20.26. There is currently a very strong zone around 20 pesos, so it would not be normal for the peso to depreciate further despite Trump's aggressive policies. The Mexican president does not seem to want to sit idly by and her response could be equivalent, hence the value recovered timidly. Since the Asian session these developments have not been enough and hence the continuation of the peso's sell-off in favor of the dollar. RSI highlights as slightly oversold. Currently, the mid-bell zone (POC) is located around 20.426, so there could be a timid recovery to that price zone. Its current support zone is located at 20.253, so if this zone is respected, a recovery of the peso could be seen. Additionally, there has been a movement of the 50-average in the direction of the 100-average, which highlights this bearish pressure. If the crossover does not occur, it would be an incentive for long traders. In conclusion, speculation on tariffs adds volatility to the USDMXN pair, and traders should continue to monitor the development of these trade tensions and their implications for the T-MEC (Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada) and the bilateral economic relationship. Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Long
by ActivTrades
USD/MXN Soars Above 20.81266 Amid Tariff TensionsThe USD/MXN pair has surged above 20.81266, marking its weakest level since March 2022. This sharp movement is driven by Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico, which poses significant risks to Mexico's economy, particularly affecting the crucial auto sector. With the US accounting for over 83% of Mexico's exports, these tariffs could disrupt the trade balance and amplify peso volatility, leading to increased investor uncertainty and potential capital outflow. The Mexican peso has depreciated approximately 20% this year, compounded by concerns over fiscal expansion and a robust US dollar. Retaliatory tariff measures suggested by President Claudia Sheinbaum could further complicate the trade landscape, exacerbating tensions. Traders should closely monitor developments in US-Mexico trade policies and potential domestic policy responses in Mexico. Given the prevailing uncertainty, market participants may seek safer assets, which could further impact USD/MXN movements
by tastyfx
Hawkish signals??? What drove Kiwi rally? The New Zealand dollar staged an unexpected rally following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) latest interest rate decision. Analysts struggled to pinpoint a definitive hawkish signal in the central bank’s messaging. Technical factors did support the rally, as NZD/USD broke above the 100- and 200-hour moving averages. However, sellers have tempered the upward movement at this level, signaling caution following the sharp rise. One potential catalyst for the rally could be RBNZ's brief acknowledgment of potential upward price pressures linked to Trump tariffs. ANZ Bank, although forecasting a 25bps rate cut at the next RBNZ meeting, did lift their odds of a 50bp cut in February, given the Governor’s comments. However, the Central Bank explicitly downplayed concerns over these factors impacting its policy trajectory.
by BlackBull_Markets
Tariff Man drives peso to 16-month low Selling the currency of the U.S.'s largest trading partner, the Mexican peso, could be one of the clearest Trump trades. The Mexican peso slid over 2% on Tuesday, now trading above 20.8 per dollar for the first time since July 2022. Posting on his Truth Social platform, Trump said one of his first executive orders will be to impose a 25% tariff on all products coming into the US from Mexico (and Canada). In response, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum indicated Mexico would consider retaliatory tariffs and bolster trade relationships with other partners. "We are not only looking to the north but also to the south and the European continent," Sheinbaum said. "Mexico is strong, and we will always come out on top." Maybe it is time for a stronger Mexico-Canada trade relationship to circumvent the Tariff Man?
by BlackBull_Markets
USDMXN View!!Mexico is now the US's largest trading partner and the auto sector is set to be one of the hardest hit. Meanwhile, the peso is down about 20% so far this year, and the depreciation has accelerated since Trump’s election, driven by a stronger dollar and doubts about whether the Federal Reserve can continue cutting interest rates amid Trump’s potentially inflationary policies. While economic activity in Mexico has shown slight improvement, it is expected to soften next year.
Short
by FXBANkthe8055
USDMXN POSSIBLE SHORT TRADE IDEAOn the monthly charts, we have a bullish trend that has been flipped. A change of character on the monthly chart indicates bearish orderflow setting. Currently, the dollar is gaining strength against major pairs, the Peso is no exception. The bullish resurgence of the dollar against the Peso seems to target price imbalance ranging between 21 to 24. Once these price imbalance has been removed, we are likely to see bearish sentiment setting in, possibly early 2025, targeting new lows.
by morrisgitau
USD/MXN: Trump fears meet Banxico decision The USD/MXN should be an interesting pair to watch in the coming days. October’s headline inflation in Mexico ticked up after two months of declines, yet analysts expect Banxico to proceed with a 25-basis-point rate cut this week regardless. Last week’s volatile trading saw USD/MXN reach 20.80, as markets reacted to concerns over a second Trump presidency. His protectionist and immigration policies would place pressure on the peso. However, for now, the pair’s uptrend may face hurdles. USD/MXN climbed to an intraday high of 20.57, but bullish momentum failed to break the year-to-date peak of 20.80, signaling possible resistance ahead.
by BlackBull_Markets
USDMXN - Trump Sleeper Trade (100k+ Trade) With Trump projected to claim the White House after preliminary votes are in, all eyes turn to Mexico. Trump has been an outspoken opponent of the "Border Crisis" and the loss of jobs to nearshored workers. Trump has threatened Mexico with tariffs on both fronts and is projected to have the House and Senate's support when proposing ballots. Expect many Republican States to issue strong punitive measures AGAINST Mexico. I expect the Peso to weaken to historic lows during this presidency. Target is 32, but could be more or less. This is made BEFORE Trump has taken office or made any decisions, however, Mexican Peso will still weaken until clarity is provided on why it shouldn't. FOREXCOM:USDMXN Potential rate cut on 11/7, but this should be a minor event in comparison to the implications of a Trump Presidency.
Long
by dsmall
1
The Mexican Peso Reborn: A Respite in the Storm Friday was an exciting day for the Mexican peso! The local currency recovered ground after a month full of ups and downs, closing the day at $20.109 MXN per dollar. This advance was driven by a weakened dollar, which lost strength against the world's major currencies. Compared to the previous close of $20.695, the peso gained 15.86 cents, which translates into a 0.79% improvement. Throughout the day, the exchange rate oscillated between $20.890 and a surprising low of $19.9851. These movements reflect the volatility of the market, but the dollar was not the only one to feel the pressure; the Dollar Index was also affected, falling 0.09% to 103.90 points. This dynamic allowed the Mexican peso to breathe a little easier in the midst of the economic storm. However, not everything is rosy. Despite the recovery, the peso closed October with a significant accumulated drop. Economic and political uncertainty in Mexico continues to worry investors, while inflation and interest rate decisions are still up in the air. Still, the peso's resurgence in this context reminds us that there are always opportunities even in the most turbulent times. In conclusion, Friday left us with a sense of hope. Although the peso is still navigating turbulent waters, its ability to react to a weak dollar suggests that investors are still looking for opportunities. The road to stability will not be easy, but the Mexican peso has shown that it can fight. Ion Jauregui –ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Long
by ActivTrades
USDMXN targeting 23.00 at least.The USDMXN pair has made a monumental long-term bullish break-out as not only did it recover its 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) in August but has also managed to close the last two 1M candles above it. As you can see on this multi-decade chart, every time the pair broke above the 1M MA50, it rallied by at least +19.10%. At the same time, it is coming off the lowest ever 1M MACD Bullish Cross, while the price rebounded exactly on the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line). As a result, our new long-term Target is 23.000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
Kamala Harris may win the presidential election - My predictionAfter a decade of trading and studying market patterns, I've noticed trends that have taken years to decipher, and I’m still refining my understanding. I’ve conducted extensive back-testing over the years, and I have yet to see this pattern fail to hit its targets. Based on my observations, there are two key levels likely to be reached. The first target, around 18.27, could be achieved if Trump were in office, but I don’t foresee the second target, approximately 16.56, being met under his leadership due to potential tariffs and trade policies that would likely pressure the Peso. If Trump wins, I expect a strong dollar and a weak Peso both in the short and long term. Conversely, if Harris wins, I anticipate a weaker dollar and a stable or stronger Peso. Of course, nothing is for certain, and this isn’t trading advice or my stance on who I feel should win or shouldn't win, just my observation.
Short
by GlobalHorns