USDMXN Long weekly forecast at the end of the yearWith the support of the 2008 trend line, I forecast at least one bounce by the end of the year to liquidate shorts. let's see
USDMXN trade ideas
Possible rally to the $17.77 MXNContinuing with the USD downtrend, we can see a possible scenario: a fair low at $17.24 or even a bit lower at 17.12 in the next few days and a rally to $17.77. This scenario is based on the current downtrend. If these levels are exceeded, the scenario may change.
The information and analysis is for educational purposes. Don't take it as financial advice.
STEALTHY PESO [REVIEW]: CASE FOR CONTIUATIONA mentor asked my thoughts on FX:USDMXN continuation.
the quick answer;
- Trade between the US & Mexico has never been so pivotal. (Banks will increase transactions and trust.)
- CFD journals are lagging bringing any attention to the market just yet.
More marketable reasons below;
For the fundamentalist reader,
- Mexico / US driven to strengthen as chances of a US-China dispute continue to rise. see; trade levels between china and US at 2005 lows.
- The Dollar has only a few rate hikes left in the chamber.
- The time inflation takes to fall, tends to be symmetrical to the time it takes to rise, .
- as China / Taiwan relations continue to sour, the chances of a US-China dispute continue to rise.
For the Techies,
Zone 1 :The lower end of the chart is in consolidation + some strength in the dollar. Opportune time for a pull back (UP).
Zone 2 : The market sold through this level. Traders still holding shorts may consider liquidation if price begins to push higher.
Zone 3 : Likely the market will exhaust to the upside and find refuge in new CFD/buying activity. This will help the price 'down' through recent buying activity.
Execution Plan;
before we begin...
- The map I've drawn on the 30M and does not take into consideration any economic drivers. Be mindful of events relative to the USD & PESO.
- The map does not take into consideration correlating currencies.
So please visit Myfxbook.com and take a look at the correlation map.
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- The purpose of this map is to highlight a possible pathway for price action and is not investment advice.
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- Zone 1
1. Your sitting on your hands.
2. Your looking for consolidation and release to the upside.
for order flow watchers; CFD's transactions are building to the short side near the bottom of zone 1.
- Zone 2
1. Still sitting on your hands.
2. Your looking for a clear pop to the target short rate, above .
- Zone 3
1. Release your first here.
2. Prepare the levels above with to grab a stronger avg short price.
- Zone 4
1. Your sitting on your hands.
2. Your looking for signs of exhaustion and CFD buy side demand.
3. Review fundamental data surrounding the trading partnership between US/Mexico.
4. Key in on your Stop loss total defined at the beginning of the trade.
and sit on those hands.
If the market rallies through the near term dealing levels, check back with me here.
I will update the chart.
The Peso has a ton of room to trade below current rates. The bigger the pull back (UP) the bigger the release (DOWN).
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment for my email.
best regards.
Mexican Peso Near the Peak of Its Power. Beware Aggressive Turn!For a long time, I maintained a scenario for the Mexican Peso that envisioned a bounce down all the way down to the mid-16s a view that seemed less than likely a few years ago with the Dollar hitting an all-time high at nearly 26 pesos per unit. Sadly I didn't hold strong enough conviction on the move happening to see it all way through, throwing the towel just in time to be on the sidelines for some of the most aggressive drops of the year.
Having said all that, We can start to see some signs of exhaustion on this slide down, and if yes this sudden collapse came somewhat as a surprise if my expectations turn out to play out similar to what I am envisaging, we could see all the advance made by the Mexican currency effectively wiped out by a solid surging dollar in the latter half of this year and the year to come.
USDMXN Fantastic Buy opportunity LONGThis idea is based on the fact the price has reached support level near 17 and bullish divergency RSI is now clear, it's time for reversal at east till 17.5 for my t/p,
This is not a trading advise just an idea for a trade, always protect your capital, have a stop loss that won't break you down..
Short in USDMXNAfter a thorough analysis, I initiated a short position in USDMXN. My decision was based on a combination of factors, including my short-term positive fundamental outlook on MXN and my perspective on USD. Furthermore, after carefully examining the trend and indicators, I am confident that this position aligns with my investment strategy.
While there is always an inherent risk in any investment, I believe this opportunity's potential downside is worth pursuing. By maintaining a disciplined approach and closely monitoring market conditions, I am optimistic about the potential for a favorable return on investment.
As always, I will monitor this position closely and make any necessary adjustments as market conditions evolve.
Stealthy PesosPeso fundamental's and the lack of retail coverage, quiet mover.
The Mexican peso traded at 17 per USD in July, its strongest since November of 2015 as evidence of a resilient Mexican economy supported forecasts that the Bank of Mexico will remain hawkish for a prolonged period. Fresh PMI data showed that the country’s manufacturing sector expanded in June, the only country within the Americas that escaped from a contraction in the period. The result was the latest among a batch of strong economic releases, adding to Banxico’s recent signal that interest rates will remain at the current record high of 11.25% as long as possible to curb inflation. The figure compares to a current interest rate of 5.25% in the US. The Mexican peso has been among the world’s strongest this year, appreciating 14.4% against the dollar since the end of December 2022.
BUY - USDMXN (2 Jul 2023)Position Trade - USDMXN
Monthly:
- USDMXN is in a strong downtrend, however it is reaching an UNTESTED DEMAND zone.
Hence, I am looking for BUYS in the monthly chart only.
Weekly:
- Nothing in weekly that are good to buy from
Daily:
- Nothing in daily that are good to buy from.
Is The american dollar ready? $17.49The dollar is at an important point. It has been at this level for a few days and we expect a turnaround in the next couple of days, this turnaround may be reaching $17.49 again as part of a retracement and possibly a trend reversal. If not, it can fall a bit further to $16.89.
This analysis is for educational purposes.
LONG - USDMXN (MN WK D) (25 May 2023)Position Trade/s - USDMXN
- Massive opportunity to go LONG as there are strong arrival candles reaching MN Demand Zone which is FRESH!
Hence, set and forget trades in MN, WK and Daily and Intraday H4
MN Trade/s
- To take entry at MN TF
WK Trade/s
- Take entry at WK TF
- However, price might pierce through re-tested WK demand zone as there were multiple retests
- Hence, WK potential BUY zone is deeper
Daily Trade/s
- 3 potential BUY Zones in Daily TF
USDMXN (2,300 PIPS) (BUY)SL- 17.09143
TP- 17.37522
Good morning and happy Monday!
Today we are looking at the 2HR Timeframe.
Price made a higher high and pulled back to the 0.886 FIB so that means price is still respecting the previous low.
I am now expecting price to continue it's way up.
What do you guys think?
A thumbs up and a comment would be very appreciated. Thank you and stay safe!
Use proper risk management.
usdmxn buying opportunity looking here we can see price corrected down the whole time staying within the Down trend it created... since then we've recently broken out of this down trend and have retested the trend line... with the confluence of bullish divergence i like this set up
Disclaimer- information shared is for educational and demo purposes only! please manage risk when trading in the financial markets
USD/MXN 15,5-16 there was a paralel channel between 1995-2023 and MXN was swinging between lines,
It's not easy to break down a 23 years old channel, if there is no solid actions in the future, something beyond of your usual ideas.
your mind may say its a bottom, MXN has to be traded between 19.50 and 21 but its not and it will not.
Reasons;
1- Mexico has the highest currency protection
- If you don't have a company doing export and import, you can not have USD account.
- Money exchanging immediately after swift operations, there is no chance to holding USD overnight in your bank account.
2- With new President Amlo, Mexico's political decisions more stable and less corrupted, since the COVID, foreigners real-estate investments started to increase in Baja California, Yucatan , Oaxaca and especially in Quintana Roo states (Cancun, Tulum)
3- Also big American companies are building new factories at the North of the country where near to US border. For cheaper labor cost and less income taxes.
Elon Musk's Tesla building a giga factory in Monterrey, Nuevo León
4- Chinese companies are throwing money in North side of Mexico for new factories and investments. Less transportation cost + benefiting from Nafta agreement.
