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U.S. Dollar / Mexican Peso

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USDMXN trade ideas

USDMXN. P-Modeling Pt A. The Peso Derivative Safe Haven for USD Welcome Hyperspace Travelers, This is a time-series analysis of the macro 1 week timeframe of USDMXN. It is of my opinion that the Peso is going to see a nasty hyperinflation cycle. TP: 31.1 In previous instances, a rising DXY is a catalyst for a rising Peso; as weight of the co-variance of R becomes redistributed fundamentally. A rising USD, at specific cyclic points, proposes that a major US equities crash, paired with a re-weighting of forex co-variance will cause a hyperinflation cycle in the Peso. In a way, in 2008-2009, it helped strengthen the Peso. In 2020, it also helped strengthen the Peso. I say strengthen because weighted distributions will allow the Peso to have more "weight" against other currency pairings. This is a hallmark feature of strength. Higher weight distribution of co-variance of the overall monetary pool into Peso makes it stronger. Think of Peso as a derivative. For many years, the Peso has slowly accumulated "weight" from the primary pairings against USD. Upon a substantial rise of DXY. The MXN Peso becomes a derivative safe haven for the USD. Thus we hyperinflate it. As previously shown at times of DXY strength 2008 and 2020. Overall this is great for the Peso on the longer term scale. But not so great for the short term of the Peso for Mexican citizens. We can see after the hyperinflation we engage in a few years of re-equalizing the slope at 32 degrees. I may absolutely be wrong. But I really think this makes perfect sense. Thanks for Pondering the Unknown with Me, Glitch420
Long
by Glitch420
1
November 16, 2021 USDMXN 1 HOUR 50 MAI have been leaning towards a MA retest strategy that has been panning out pretty well these past few months. Here is a setup from a trade last week. I primarily look for candles closing at the 4 hour closes and also around the 1 hour closes around the NY session open. There are three MA's I use. The 20 MA (blue), 50 MA (red) and the 200 MA (gold). Not only does the candle have to close on the 20 or 50 MA but the moving averages must be positioned correctly. I use the 4 screen layout. The daily chart on the top left, 4 hour on the top right, 1 hour on the bottom left, and 15 min on the bottom right. This is my Moving Average Correlation Strategy In using this strategy, I review all major and minor forex pairs including indices and metals. If I see a pair closing on a moving average, I will flag it and set an alert above the high (buy) or low (short) on the timeframe where the 200 MA resides. Each week there are at least 4-6 setups. A) IF Price closes on the 4 hour 20 MA, I need price to also close on the 50 MA on the 1 hour, and the 200 MA on the 15 min. B) IF Price closes on the 4 hour 50 MA, I need price to also close on the 200 MA on the 1 hour. C) IF Price closes on the 1 hour 20 MA, I need price to close on the 15 min 50 MA, and 5 min 200 MA. D) IF Price closes on the 1 hour 50 MA, I need price to close on the 15 min 200 MA. These are the primary correlations I use to trade. I also check the daily, but I find more setups with the above for IF, THEN criteria. Remember, the moving averages must be ALSO positioned correctly. From here, I wait for a candle stick confirmation. I will either get in an engulfing candle on the 50 MA or the 200 MA. TRADE ABOVE: In the above chart, scenario (D) occurred. Price closed on the 1 hour 50 MA at 4 AM PST (one hour before the NY session). At the same time, price also closed on the 200 MA on the 15 min timeframe. Next, I saw an engulfing candle form creating a morning star on the 200 MA on the 15 min. I did a quick check and saw this more clearly on the 30 min timeframe for additional confirmation. The buy was entered above the high with stop loss below the low. Profit levels at RR of 3 and at a daily resistance. Does anyone else trade this way? Is this your first time seeing this? Please respond so I know I"m not the only one here. Looking for all of your feedback! @MDFX_TRADES
Long
by MichaelDForex
USDMXN (Cypher Pattern and Harmonic Patterns) - 4h ChartCypher Pattern: - A to B must touch 0.382 but cannot exceed 0.618 - B to C must touch 1.272 but cannot close below 1.414 (Trend-Based Fib Extension) - C to D must touch 0.786 of X to C - First TP at 0.618 of D to C (Fibonacci) - Second TP at 0.382 of D to C (Fibonacci) - Third TP back to point C Deep Crab Pattern: - A-B leg can retrace anywhere between 0.382 up to 0.618 - B-C leg can retrace 0.382-0.886 of AB leg - C-D is an extension of up to 1.618 of XA leg - Take profits at 0.382 and 0.618 (Fibonacci D-C) - Third TP would be long term back to where it all started Gartley Pattern - A-B must touch 0.618 but cannot touch 0.786 - B-C must touch 0.236 but cannot exceed A - D completion at 1.272 (Trend Extension) or 0.786 from normal measurement - First TP at 0.618 (Fibonacci from D-A) - Second TP at 0.382 (Fibonacci from D-A) - Third TP would be back to where it all started Butterfly Pattern: - A-B must touch 0.786, but cannot exceed X - B-C touches 0.382, but sometimes goes further (does not exceed A) - ABCD formation. D has to reach outside X and touch 1.272 or 1.618 - First TP at 0.618 (Fibo D-A) - Second TP at 0.382 (Fibo D-A) - Third TP back to where it all started at top 4h Chart Good Trading!
Short
by DanielParra99
MOSTLY Clear Sky USDMXN up to 22.66. LONG order placed 10.72 R!!LONG order placed for the open tomorrow night. Expect price to retrace a bit so I expect it to fill. Decided on a tight SL on this one to maximize profit. Will RISK 1% on trade because funds tied up in other trades and I dont like to play with leverage but easily this trade could risk up to 1.5%. MACD pointing higher and crossing ZERO with BULLISH Divergence suggesting New UP TREND taking shape. Entry = $20.50030 SL = $20.29813 TP = $22.66 10.72 R Expectancy
Long
by eganon69
1