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U.S. DOLLAR / NATURAL GAS forum

2 hours ago

Additional to my last post, big news.
The Polar Vortex is forecast to collapse soon. It'll send most of the Arctic air into the East US mainly. Causing a massive freeze not seen since 2013, some have said.

I did call for this in August this year. It was pretty obvious to happen then, and now it's playing out.
With that in mind, my $4 might be too low. If bad enough, we could see a spike to $5 or $6.

If we did see prices that high, it would be an easy short.
This news is just coming out as a write this.

4 hours ago

I suspect we'll gap quite decently tomorrow, and crush a lot of shorts.

Jan forecasts, and even the rest of December have been significantly revised colder over the weekend.

Production averaged 104.5bcf
Exports made a new high to 15.2bcf

With that, the end of Winter storage estimates have also significantly dropped. Which will limit how much of a pullback we get heading into injection season. Higher for longer, in other words.

All the Jan EIA reports are highly bullish at this stage, -50 or more deviations from the 5 year average.

This is why I felt last week that going short right now was daring and highly risky. It's not the right time.
So many just looking to short because they think the price is high, without considering the fundamentals.

In my mind, we're well on track for $4

Best of luck everyone

yesterday

down on Monday?

2 days ago

It’s finally broken through Minor Res! 🚀 Now, it might be eyeing 4.4, but not before pulling some wild, non-linear stunts around 3.67. Buckle up, because this ride is anything but smooth! Did y’all see this madness 👇🏻?
tradingview.com/x/Ub8g85aL

See you guys Monday. ✌🏻