USDNZD trade ideas
President Trump's unsettling reminder | FX ResearchPresident Trump is tightening the screws on trade, reaffirming that tariffs on Canada and Mexico will proceed as planned next week. Financial markets have reacted with stocks selling off, already weighed down by softer US economic data and rising inflation.
The euro has been consolidating recent gains as it awaits developments in the German coalition. Meanwhile, the Australian and New Zealand dollars have held up well despite Trump’s trade stance, supported by China’s liquidity measures and new policies aimed at reviving its property market and promoting rural reforms.
Key events on Tuesday’s calendar include German GDP, UK CBI trade data, Canada manufacturing sales, US Case-Shiller house prices, consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing, and speeches from the BoE, ECB, and Fed officials.
Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
NZD/USD Trade Setup: Long Position at Key SupportNZD/USD is currently testing trendline support around 0.572, and I’ve entered a long position with a defined risk-reward setup.
🔹 Trade Setup:
✅ Entry: Near 0.572 (Trendline Support)
🎯 Profit Target (Blue Zone): 0.5804 - 0.5814
🛑 Stop-Loss (Yellow Zone): Below 0.567
🔹 Market Outlook:
📊 Bullish Bias – As long as the trendline holds, we could see a push toward the 0.577 - 0.581 resistance area.
⚠️ Risk Management – A break below 0.567 would invalidate the setup, triggering the stop-loss.
I’m watching for bullish confirmation here. Will buyers defend this level, or will we see a breakdown? Let me know your thoughts! 👇
Falling towards overlap support?NZD/USD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.5692
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.5664
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 0.5745
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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NZD/USD 1H Timeframe SetupEntry conditions :
- DXY shows an FVG being touched on the Daily Timeframe , so I expect the market to move from internal liquidity (FVG) to External liquidity (Swing Point). So DXY is bearish.
- On NZD/USD we can see a trendline liquidity
- Order block created on Asia session , explosive order block creating FVG
Its important to understand the spacing and timing , right now DXY is moving down and the order block on NZD/USD just got touched, when DXY confirms the trend we need to see where the market is near on this pairs and waiting liquidity patterns and good Order blocks.
NZDUSD Short-term Channel Up aiming higher.The NZDUSD pair has been trading within a 20-day Channel Up and today hit its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). Last time it did (February 18), it held and initiated a rebound marginally above the 1.236 Fibonacci extension.
Given that the current pull-back is almost as strong (-1.30%) as the previous, but more importantly the 4H RSI hit its 1-month Higher Lows trend-line, we expect a rebound. Our Target is again the 1.236 Fib ext, this time at 0.57900.
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Could the Kiwi bounce from here?The price is falling towards the pivot which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 0.5693
1st Support: 0.5663
1st Resistance: 0.5744
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NZD/USD BEARISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| SHORT
Hello, Friends!
NZD/USD pair is trading in a local uptrend which we know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is green. On the 1D timeframe the pair is going up too. The pair is overbought because the price is close to the upper band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to sell the pair with the upper BB line acting as resistance. The next target is 0.555 area.
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Kiwi H1 | Heading into swing-high resistanceThe Kiwi (NZD/USD) is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 0.5736 which is a swing-high resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 0.5756 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 0.5708 which is an overlap support that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
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NZDUSD – Breakout of Rising Wedge | Sell SignalNZDUSD has broken out of a Rising Wedge pattern, signaling a potential bearish move. Rising wedges typically indicate weakening bullish momentum, and a breakout to the downside suggests that sellers are taking control.
#NZDUSD #Forex #Breakout #PriceAction #SellSignal 🚀
NZDUSD in a sequence of higher lows and highs.NZDUSD - 24h expiry
Trend line support is located at 0.5725.
RSI (relative strength indicator) is flat and reading close to 50 (mid-point) highlighting the fact that we are non- trending.
We expect a reversal in this move.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 0.5775 will confirm the bullish momentum.
We look to Buy at 0.5725 (stop at 0.5695)
Our profit targets will be 0.5800 and 0.5825
Resistance: 0.5775 / 0.5800 / 0.5825
Support: 0.5725 / 0.5700 / 0.5675
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NZDUSD INTRADAY Bullish consolidation The NZDUSD currency pair price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action appears to be a sideways consolidation towards the breakout level, previous resistance, and now a new support zone.
The key trading level is at 0.5730 level, the previous consolidation price range and also the support trendline zone. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 0.5730 level could target the upside resistance at 0.5770 followed by the 0.5800 and 0.5825 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 0.5730 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 0.5690 support level followed by 0.5635.
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New Zealand dollar steady as retail sales sparkleThe New Zealand dollar is showing little movement on Monday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5745 in the European session, up 0.07% on the day.
The week started on a high note in New Zealand, as retail sales jumped 0.9% q/q in the fourth quarter of 2024, after a revised flat reading in the third quarter and above the market estimate of 0.6%. This was the strongest gain in three years. Most sub-categories posted gains as the improvement was felt across the economy. Annually, retail sales posted a small gain of 0.2% in the fourth quarter following a 2.2% decline in Q3. This was the first gain since Q3 of 2022.
The strong impressive rebound in retail sales is a sign that lower interest rates are filtering through the economy and boosting weak growth. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has been aggressive, chopping rates by 50 basis points in October, November and February. The cash rate is down to 3.75%, its lowest level since Oct. 2022. Consumers are showing improved confidence due to lower borrowing costs and are opening up the purse strings.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand plans to continue cutting rates but in a more gradual fashion. Governor Adrian Orr signaled at last week's meeting that he expects to cut rates by 25 basis points in both April and May, provided that economic conditions evolve as projected.
In the US, the Services PMI for February surprised on the downside and contracted to 49.7, down from 52.9 in January and below the market estimate of 53.0. This marked the lowest level since January 2023. The services sector, which has been the major driver of the US economy, showed strong growth until the end of 2024 and has weakened for two straight months. The Manufacturing PMI improved to 51.6, up from 51.2 and above the market estimate of 51.5.
0.5731 is a weak support level. Below, there is support at 0.5688
0.5783 and 0.5826 are the next resistance lines
Market Analysis: NZD/USD Holds Strong—Are More Gains Ahead?Market Analysis: NZD/USD Holds Strong—Are More Gains Ahead?
NZD/USD is also rising and could aim for a move above the 0.5800 resistance.
Important Takeaways for NZD/USD Analysis Today
- NZD/USD is consolidating above the 0.5720 support.
- There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 0.5735 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of NZD/USD on FXOpen, the pair also followed AUD/USD. The New Zealand Dollar formed a base above the 0.5675 level and started a decent increase against the US Dollar.
The pair climbed above the 0.5720 resistance. It tested the 0.5775 resistance before there was a pullback. The recent low was formed at 0.5734 and the pair is again rising above the 50-hour simple moving average.
It cleared the 0.5750 resistance and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.5772 swing high to the 0.5734 low. The NZD/USD chart suggests that the RSI is back above 50 signaling a positive bias.
On the upside, the pair is facing resistance near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.5772 swing high to the 0.5734 low at 0.5762. The next major resistance is near the 0.5775 level.
A clear move above the 0.5775 level might even push the pair toward the 0.5800 level. Any more gains might clear the path for a move toward the 0.5880 resistance zone in the coming days.
On the downside, there is a support forming near the 0.5750 zone. If there is a downside break below the 0.5750 support, the pair might slide toward 0.5735. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at 0.5735. Any more losses could lead NZD/USD in a bearish zone to 0.5695.
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