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U.S. Dollar / New Zealand Dollar

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USDNZD trade ideas

NZD/USD Long 9/9/2024Last week, I took a long position on NZD/USD, anticipating a bullish outcome based on both fundamental and technical analysis. Fundamentally, the pair showed a +5 COT score on the A1 Edgefinder, indicating a bullish sentiment. On the technical side, both the daily and 1-hour charts displayed a bullish trend, with the EMAs pointing upwards. A pullback presented a favorable opportunity to enter the trade. With the U.S. labor market showing signs of weakening, I expected the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report to reflect softer numbers, potentially causing USD weakness. While the NFP data did indeed come in weaker than expected, the USD exhibited an unexpected bullish response, temporarily moving against my trade. However, I'm not overly concerned, as the overall fundamentals and technicals of the trade remain strong, and I still expect a favorable outcome.
Long
by MoneyEngineer
1
NZD/USD: Traders Eye Short Setup After Key ReboundThe NZD/USD pair saw a strong recovery from its intraday low of 0.6170 during Wednesday’s New York session. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) regained some ground as the US Dollar (USD) struggled to maintain its upward momentum, having recently corrected from a fresh two-week high. Investors are now eagerly awaiting the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, the highlight of a data-heavy week for the US economy. From a technical standpoint, the price had already rebounded from a key Supply area, and after today's short recovery, traders may find an opportunity for a potential short setup. This pullback could be seen as a chance to enter the market by setting a Sell Limit order or entering directly to take advantage of the correction. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals that retail traders are increasingly aggressive on the long side, while Smart Money appears to be reducing its positions, signaling a possible bearish trend. Additionally, seasonality data further hints at the potential for a bearish move in the near future. With several factors aligning, traders may be preparing for a potential downside in the NZD/USD pair, making this pullback an attractive opportunity for short positions. ✅ Please share your thoughts about NZD/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
Sideways No More? The Key Levels That Could Ignite NZD/USDThe outlook for NZD/USD isn't strong at the moment, and it seems likely to continue trading sideways. However, this could change with a break above the December 2023 high of 0.6365. A breach of this level would confirm a breakout from the large wedge pattern, suggesting that prices could reach 0.6738. This wedge is formed by the trendlines connecting the December 2023 high with the August 2024 high and the October 2023 and August 2024 lows. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
by ThinkMarkets
NZD/USD sets stage for next up moveThe US dollar continues to fall across the board, especially against haven currencies like the Japanese yen. But it is also weaker against the more high beta currencies too, despite the ongoing struggles in the stock markets. The NZD/USD stands ready to benefit from the weakening US dollar, especially in the event we see calm return to stocks. The NZD/USD has been in consolidation mode for the past few days, declining inside what looks like a falling wedge continuation pattern. The kiwi surged last month after a false break reversal pattern was formed around the 0.5860 level (see chart). After hitting a high of just under 0.6300, it has dropped a bit to test - and so far hold - prior resistance at 0.6170 (see red arrows on the chart). This level has now turned into support. If we can now take out the pivotal 0.6218/20 level, then more gains could be on the way, initially targeting the liquidity now resting above the most recent high at 0.6300 area.   So far this week, we have had two disappointing employment indicators from the US, namely JOLTS job openings and now ADP private sector payrolls (rising by just 99K instead of 144K expected and prior number was revised lower too). From here, a substantial further decline in the US dollar would require further bearish US economic data this week. Friday's payrolls report is key in this regard. But any data-driven upside should be limited given the Fed’s clear signal that it will cut rates. Put simply, weakness in US data is needed to keep the pressure on the US dollar, while the upside for the greenback should be limited on any data surprises because of the Fed’s strong indications that rate cuts are starting this month. This makes me bearish on the dollar and therefore bullish on major currency pairs like the NZD/USD. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
Long
by FOREXcom