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U.S. Dollar / New Zealand Dollar

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USDNZD trade ideas

long opportunitiesThis is a trade where I’m staying patient, and the COT numbers are particularly interesting. Speculators' behavior has driven prices bearish, and while the sentiment remains predominantly short, we could see a relief rally from those heavy shorts in the coming weeks, or potentially sooner. It will be very telling to see what the COT report shows by Friday. If we observe a significant reduction in shorts, I believe we could see prices push higher next week. I’ll be looking for an entry at a key support zone formed on the daily or weekly chart.
Long
by OssianH
NZDUSD A Fall Expected! SELL! My dear friends, My technical analysis for NZDUSD is below: The market is trading on 0.5888 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 0.5850 Recommended Stop Loss - 0.5909 About Used Indicators: A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
1
NZDUSD Potential Up correction from crossing of supportsNZDUSD recently showed a false breakout below its previous support and has reached a demand zone on the daily timeframe, suggesting a potential pullback. On the 4H chart, bullish divergence at the support level supports the likelihood of a retracement. The price may move higher to retest the resistance zone around 0.5880, which has been tested multiple times. This setup indicates a potential for a short-term recovery
Long
by RTED_Investing
Potential bullish bounce for the Kiwi?The price is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance. Pivot: 0.5862 1st Support: 0.5816 1st Resistance: 0.5937 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
NZDUSD Daily Analysis: Slight Bullish Bias Expected.NZDUSD Daily Analysis: Slight Bullish Bias Expected Amid Positive New Zealand Data and Weak U.S. Dollar 28/11/2024 Introduction The NZDUSD pair is likely to maintain a slight bullish bias today as strong fundamentals from New Zealand and continued pressure on the U.S. dollar support the New Zealand dollar (NZD). Improved risk sentiment and rising commodity prices further enhance the outlook for the kiwi. This article explores the key drivers influencing NZDUSD today and provides insights for traders. --- Key Drivers Influencing NZDUSD 1. Resilient New Zealand Economic Performance New Zealand’s recent economic indicators, including steady retail sales growth and robust dairy export performance, continue to support the kiwi. The nation’s economic resilience bolsters investor confidence in the NZD against the greenback. 2. U.S. Dollar Weakness The U.S. dollar (USD) remains under pressure as the Federal Reserve’s dovish tone dominates market sentiment. Weak economic data from the U.S., such as declining consumer confidence and softer inflation, reduces demand for the greenback. 3. Rising Commodity Prices As a commodity-linked currency, the NZD benefits from rising global commodity prices. Positive momentum in agricultural and dairy prices strengthens the kiwi, further supporting the pair’s bullish outlook. 4. Improved Global Risk Sentiment Global financial markets are seeing reduced volatility, and risk appetite is improving. This trend favors higher-yielding and risk-sensitive currencies like the NZD, providing additional upward momentum for NZDUSD. --- Technical Analysis Moving Averages and RSI NZDUSD is trading above its 50-day moving average, suggesting continued bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in neutral territory but trending upward, indicating room for further gains. MACD and Key Levels The MACD indicator remains positive, reinforcing the bullish outlook. Key resistance is located at 0.6390, with immediate support at 0.6300. A breakout above resistance could push the pair toward 0.6450 in the near term. --- Conclusion NZDUSD is positioned for a slight bullish bias today, supported by strong fundamentals in New Zealand, weakness in the U.S. dollar, and favorable global conditions. Traders should monitor key levels and remain attentive to potential changes in sentiment or economic data releases that could impact the pair’s trajectory. --- SEO Tags: - #NZDUSDforecast - #NZDUSDanalysis - #NZDUSDtechnicalanalysis - #ForexTradingNZDUSD - #NewZealandDollarOutlook - #USDWeakness - #NZDUSDtoday - #ForexMarketAnalysis - #NZDUSDprediction
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
NZDUSD - 4hrs ( Buy Trade Target Range 150 PIP )🟢 Pair Name :NZD/USD Time Frame : 4hrs Chart / Close Scale Type : Large Scale ------ 🟢 Key Technical / Direction ( Long ) ——————————— Bullish Reversal 0.58900 Area Reasons - Major Turn level - Visible Range Lvn - Pattern Target - Major Choch zone - Quarter low Bearish Reversal 0.60500 Area Reasons - Major Turn level - Visible range Hvn - Trend Contnuation - Fibo Golden / Choch - P / Quarter low Break
Long
by GentleGoldenEngine
10
NZDUSD Forecast for TodayBearish Outlook. NZDUSD prices are expected to decline today, driven by a strengthening US dollar and decreasing investor appetite for riskier assets. The currency pair is likely to be pressured by the ongoing economic uncertainty and declining trade balances. Technical Analysis. On the technical front, NZDUSD is trading below the 50-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also pointing to overbought conditions, suggesting a potential decline. SNR. Key support level for NZDUSD is at 0.58113, while key resistance level is at 0.59130. Trading Strategy. Based on our analysis, we recommend a short position in NZDUSD, targeting a move towards 0.58113. However, traders should be cautious of potential bounces and adjust their strategies accordingly. BEST WISHES TOM 😎
Short
by LegendaryTom
NZDUSD Daily Analysis: Slight Bullish Bias Expected Amid.NZDUSD Daily Analysis: Slight Bullish Bias Expected Amid Positive New Zealand Economic Indicators and Weak U.S. Dollar 27/11/2024 Introduction The NZDUSD pair is expected to exhibit a slight bullish bias today, driven by robust economic conditions in New Zealand and continued weakness in the U.S. dollar. Favorable commodity prices and improving global risk appetite further bolster the case for the New Zealand dollar’s strength against the greenback. This article explores the fundamental and technical factors contributing to today’s NZDUSD outlook. --- Key Drivers Influencing NZDUSD 1. Strong New Zealand Economic Data Recent economic releases from New Zealand, including steady business confidence and resilient trade figures, support the New Zealand dollar (NZD). The agricultural export sector, particularly dairy, continues to perform well, providing a solid base for the kiwi dollar. 2. Weakening U.S. Dollar The U.S. dollar (USD) faces sustained pressure as dovish Federal Reserve expectations dominate market sentiment. Soft economic data from the U.S., including declining consumer spending and slowing inflation, reduce demand for the greenback. 3. Commodity Price Momentum As a commodity-linked currency, the New Zealand dollar benefits from rising global commodity prices. Positive trends in dairy and agricultural products further enhance NZD’s attractiveness. 4. Improved Risk Sentiment Global markets are showing signs of stabilization, with diminishing concerns about geopolitical tensions and economic slowdowns. This improved risk appetite boosts demand for higher-yielding and risk-sensitive currencies like the NZD. --- Technical Analysis Moving Averages and RSI NZDUSD is trading above its 50-day moving average, reinforcing the bullish sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates upward momentum but remains below overbought territory, suggesting further room for gains. MACD and Key Levels The MACD indicator remains in positive territory, showing continued bullish momentum. Key resistance is situated at 0.6370, while support lies at 0.6280. A breakout above resistance could see the pair targeting higher levels near 0.6450. --- Conclusion The NZDUSD pair is positioned for a slight bullish bias today, supported by strong fundamentals from New Zealand, a weaker U.S. dollar, and favorable commodity price trends. Traders should watch for any shifts in global market sentiment or unexpected data releases that may influence short-term price movements. --- SEO Tags: - #NZDUSDforecast - #NZDUSDanalysis - #NZDUSDtechnicalanalysis - #ForexTradingNZDUSD - #NewZealandDollarOutlook - #USDWeakness - #NZDUSDtoday - #ForexMarketAnalysis - #NZDUSDprediction
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
NZDUSDOANDA:NZDUSD Trade Idea: Bullish Bias Summary: This setup suggests a bullish outlook for NZDUSD, driven primarily by seasonal and COT factors, while considering slightly opposing exogenous influences favoring USD. Key Points: Seasonality: NZD shows bullish momentum from Nov 25 to Dec 11, while USD has bearish seasonality from Nov 23 to Dec 6, giving an edge to NZD. Commitment of Traders (COT): Both NZD and USD are near their bottoms, with overall positioning supporting a buy bias for NZDUSD. Exogenous Factors: Balance of Payments (BOP): Both NZD and USD are positive, resulting in a neutral impact. GDP Growth Differential: The differential between NZD and USD GDP growth is improving, favoring NZD. Stocks: NZD shows negative performance in stocks, while USD is positive, a slight negative for NZDUSD. Interest Rates (IR): Declining rates negatively impact both currencies, but the effect is neutralized as both are reducing at the same pace. Conditional Scoring: Positive Factors: NZD: 9, USD: 11 Negative Factors: NZD: 4, USD: 13. (Buy bias). Technical Context: Seasonals and COT data align strongly with NZD strength, while exogenous factors slightly favor USD. Trade Bias: Buy NZDUSD as seasonal and sentiment factors strongly favor NZD despite minor exogenous opposition from USD. Risk Disclaimer: Ensure proper risk management while entering this trade.
Long
by AtifDhedhi
NZDUSD - Long SetupMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels. In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level higher. Also price swept 1W key liquidity, so the probability for some bullish move higher. But to take more statistically more probable trades we should wait for some time of lower timeframe confirmation. For me the best way to confirm higher timeframe context is structure. We can notice the break of market structure (sign of strength) on key liquidity level with GAP, so there is a higher probability to see price higher at least on opposite level (marked higher). Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
Long
by Maks_Klimenko
Shark Harmonic Pattern, often signals a potential REVERSALShark Pattern: The ratios seem accurate (e.g., AB=0.886 of XA, and CD=1.13 or 1.618 of XA). "D" falls near the completion zone, aligning with the harmonic guidelines. Support Area: A strong support level of around 0.5800 adds confidence to the potential reversal. Price reaction near this area supports bullish momentum. Buy Signal: It could confirm a reversal if the price sustains above 0.5800 and breaks higher (e.g., beyond 0.5880). Next Steps: Entry: Consider entering near the "D" point with tight risk management. Target: Aim for the previous resistance zones, e.g., 0.6000 or 0.6100. Stop Loss: Place stops below the support (e.g., 0.5780). Monitor closely for bullish confirmation candles or increasing volume to validate the trade. Let me know if you'd like further refinements!
Long
by Bitcoin_King01
Reserve Bank of New Zealand: 50 or 75?Markets and economists widely anticipate that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will reduce the Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) to 4.25% on Wednesday, a move that would push the OCR closer to neutral levels. Markets Fully Pricing in a 50 Basis Point Cut Markets are assigning a 60% chance that the RBNZ will opt for a 50 bp cut (60 bps of easing priced in), with a 40% chance that the central bank may swing for a bulkier 75 bp reduction. A 50 bp cut in the OCR would follow a 50 bp reduction in October and a surprise 25 bp cut in August. I expect the RBNZ to follow through and reduce the OCR by 50 bps this week. Inflation has cooled to 2.2% in Q3 24 and is now within the RBNZ’s target band of 1-3% for the first time since early 2021. Inflation expectations also remain pretty much anchored around the 2.0% mark. Economic activity (GDP – Gross Domestic Product) remains well and truly in the doldrums; Q2 24 data showed economic growth shrank by 0.2%, following a paltry 0.1% expansion in Q1 24. GDP per capita also contracted by 0.5% in Q2 24, coupled with a loosening jobs market. Employment growth showed a contraction of 0.5% in Q3 24, and the unemployment rate rose to its highest level since late 2020 (4.8% in Q3 24). However, on the other side of this fence, some desks – such as Goldman Sachs – highlight the possibility of a 75 bp cut given the economic downturn, increased unemployment, and the long break between now and the next meeting (mid-February next year), which could leave the central bank somewhat behind the curve. Global Risks Remain Uncertain The re-election of Donald Trump and potential tariff changes introduce a degree of unpredictability for New Zealand’s economy, particularly for tradeable inflation. Still, it is merely speculation at this point, and the implications for New Zealand's inflation are unclear. I anticipate that the November statement will reflect confidence in the progress made on inflation, and the central bank will emphasise a gradual approach to policy easing, contingent on incoming data. With that being said, considering the economic backdrop, I imagine the quarterly projections may reveal additional rate cuts next year, with CPI forecasts potentially being revised lower, with limited revisions for GDP growth metrics. NZD/USD in Focus A 75 bp cut would likely trigger enough of a ‘surprise’ and see the New Zealand dollar (NZD) sell off quite extensively, particularly against the US dollar (USD). In contrast, a 50 bp cut, which, as I noted above, is fully priced in, is unlikely to yield that much of a surprise/reaction, especially if dovish language is absent and the OCR projections are only moderately revised lower towards the end of 2025. I will be keeping a close eye on NZD/USD during the rate announcement. An outsized 75 bp cut might trigger a strong downside move in the pair, particularly as investors have pared back US rate-cut bets – markets are now just pricing in 13 bps of easing for December’s meeting – as well as the USD being bolstered by the incoming Trump administration and safe-haven demand. The monthly chart shows that price is trading at range support from N$0.5846, while the daily chart suggests scope to push for nearby support at N$0.5807. Therefore, daily and monthly support provides a ‘floor’ for potential buyers, which could hold if the RBNZ opts for a 50 bp cut. A 75 bp cut, nevertheless, could see the aforementioned support zone challenged. Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
Long
by FPMarkets