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U.S. Dollar / New Zealand Dollar

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USDNZD trade ideas

NZDUSD: Curve Analysis (2D)Technical Analysis: Mixed Indicators and Possible Trading Prospects The NZDUSD currency pair is currently experiencing a battle between bullish and bearish forces, resulting in a complex technical situation for traders. Challenging Resistance: Both the NZDUSD and AUDUSD are encountering obstacles at their respective 100-hour moving averages, impeding any potential upward momentum. The NZDUSD made an effort to surpass the crucial level at 0.58967, but encountered selling pressure, resulting in a decline in price. Conflicting Signals from Technical Indicators: A number of technical oscillators, such as RSI, Stochastic %K, and Williams %R, suggest that the NZDUSD is currently in an oversold condition. Based on the current data, it appears that the currency pair could experience a correction or a possible rebound in the near future. Downward Trend in Moving Averages: Conversely, the majority of moving averages are currently showing a downward trend , with shorter-term averages positioned below longer-term ones. There seems to be a downward trend that may persist unless there is a significant bullish reversal. Is there a bullish divergence? It is worth noting that the Hull Moving Average is suggesting a potential bullish divergence or reversal. There may be a potential shift in momentum if the price action begins to deviate from the downward trend of the moving averages. In general, the future prospects for NZDUSD appear to be uncertain with a downtrend bias. Indicators pointing towards oversold conditions indicate that there may be some attractive buying opportunities. However, it is important to exercise caution due to the prevailing bearish trend and the resistance observed at the 100-hour moving average. It would be wise to avoid overly optimistic bets in this situation.
Short
by ProfessorCEWard
My outlook on NZDUSDFundamental Analysis on NZDUSD Interest Rates: NZD Cash Rate = 5.50% NZD Inflation Rate = 4.0% NZD Interest Rate Adjusted for Inflation = 1.5% USD Cash Rate = 5.50% USD Inflation Rate = 3.3% USD Interest Rate Adjusted for Inflation = 2.2% Interest Rate Differential = 0.7 USD sees greater gains against the New Zealand Dollar due to a higher Interest Rate. Today (10/07/24) the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) confirmed that interest rates will remain at 5.50% and as a result we saw NZD fall against the USD. NZD inflation also remains high compared to USD. Chinese Economy and it's impact on NZD: According to the latest data released by Caixin, China's Services PMI fell from 54.0 in May to 51.2 in June as compared to the market forecast for a reading of 53.4. This adds to worries about a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy and acts as a headwind for commodity currencies, including the NZD. Apart from this, expectations that the RBNZ will cut rates earlier than projected further contribute to the NZDUSD rate going down. The next update on the NZD interest rate is Wednesday 14 August 2024. New Zealand Commodities Exports: China with a share of 26% (11.3 billion US$) Australia with a share of 12.8% (5.42 billion US$) USA with a share of 12% (5.08 billion US$) Japan with a share of 5.51% (2.32 billion US$) Korea with a share of 3.46% (1.46 billion US$) China makes up an estimate of 26% of New Zealands exports. A slow Chinese economy will lead to further losses for the NZD. 28% of overall exports for New Zealand are Dairy Products. The price of Milk Futures (DC1!) has a strong correlation with the price of New Zealand Dollar Futures (6N1!). If the price of Dairy products continue to increase, this can lead to NZDUSD to see short term gains. Overall, expect NZDUSD to continue going down due to a slower Chinese economy combined with volatility from Dairy Futures prices. Upcoming USD CPI data: US CPI data is set to be released tomorrow (11/07/2024). If US data can beat forecasts then we can see NZDUSD fall sharply. However, if data does not beat forecasts that we will see NZDUSD continue trading in a range. My trade plan: I will be looking to sell NZDUSD after CPI data is released this week. A break of the 0.606 level will see prices visit the 0.600 level. My longer term target for this pair is 0.587. This target is based on longer term USD strength across the board along with the slow down of the Chinese economy.
Short
by TheForexMessiah
1
Long Kiwi setup looking for a revival in risk appetiteThe New Zealand dollar is a binary bet on how investor risk appetite evolves this week. Having plunged over the past fortnight before bouncing off horizontal support, a setup is in place to look for a reversal. We just need risk assets to oblige. To reinforce how influential risk assets have been on the Kiwi, its rolling daily correlation with Nasdaq futures sits at 0.92 over the past month. With copper futures it’s an even stronger 0.95 and 0.89 with USD/JPY. It’s deeply negative with the VIX at -0.88, indicating that when volatility spikes, Kiwi usually tumbles. That suggests Microsoft’s earnings report and speculation before the Fed are likely to heavily influence NZD/USD over the next 24 hours. NZD/USD screens as decent long setup from a risk-reward perspective, oversold yet still able to bounce off .59593 at the first time of testing, an important level that has provided support in the past. While no guarantee this time will be the same, when RSI has sat at these kinds of levels over reccent years, it has often occurred around a market bottom. Those taking on the long trade could buy above .58593 with a stop below for protection. Some selling may be encountered at .5900 but there isn’t any real visible resistance levels evident until we get back towards .5985 of .60491. DS
Long
by FOREXcom
NZDUSD to continue in the downward move?NZDUSD - 24h expiry There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end. Although we remain bearish overall, a correction is possible without impacting the trend lower. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels. A move through 0.5865 will confirm the bearish momentum. The measured move target is 0.5835. We look to Sell at 0.5880 (stop at 0.5906) Our profit targets will be 0.5815 and 0.5805 Resistance: 0.5875 / 0.5880 / 0.5890 Support: 0.5860 / 0.5850 / 0.5835 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Short
by OANDA
NZDUSD Is Very Bullish! Buy! Please, check our technical outlook for NZDUSD. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 0.588. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 0.592 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1