USDNZD trade ideas
Scenario on NZDUSDHere I see a quite similar scenario as in the audusd analysis, it is quite possible that we have already established a sfp low after support where the price continues to consolidate, so from my point of view a final triangle is possible from which I would like to look for a long set up on the exit
Daily watchlist for Tuesday and potential short in play.Morning forecast for the pairs i have on watch moving forward for the day, I currently took a short on the GBPCAD at the early hours of 5am EST in anticipation for a move lower. Key pairs that i am looking at are CADCHF, GBPUSD and NZDUSD. These are all very interesting pairs on the positions on the HTF and LTF structures.
NZDUSD Short ideaCOT Report
- Non Commercials are reducing there position in NZD, showing weakness in NZD.
- Non Commercials are much neutral in USD, showing steadiness to strength in USD>
Endogenous Factors
- NZD score after all indicators moved from +4 to -2 in last three months.
- USD score remains stable and mix making it neutral.
Exogenous Factors
- NZD is looking weaker against USD in exogenous factors as shown.
NZDUSD Daily Analysis: Slight Bullish Bias as Commodity Prices NZDUSD Daily Analysis: Slight Bullish Bias as Commodity Prices and Risk Sentiment Favor the Kiwi 03/12/2024
Introduction
NZDUSD is expected to show a slight bullish bias today, driven by strengthening commodity prices, positive risk sentiment, and a weaker U.S. dollar. As the global market outlook improves and key economic factors align in favor of the New Zealand dollar (NZD), the pair is poised to continue its upward trajectory. This article outlines the fundamental and technical factors supporting the NZDUSD bullish outlook for today.
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Key Drivers Influencing NZDUSD
1. Commodity Price Strength
New Zealand is a major exporter of agricultural products, and the recent uptick in global commodity prices—especially dairy and meat—has provided substantial support for the NZD. This rise in commodity prices boosts New Zealand’s export revenues, supporting the strength of the kiwi.
2. Risk-On Market Sentiment
The broader market sentiment has shifted towards a risk-on mood, with global equities showing signs of recovery. The improved appetite for riskier assets tends to favor currencies like the NZD, which is considered a commodity-linked and higher-yielding currency.
3. U.S. Dollar Weakness
The U.S. dollar continues to face downward pressure amid expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve. Market participants have reduced their expectations for further rate hikes, making the USD less attractive relative to other currencies. As a result, the NZD is benefiting from this USD weakness, further supporting the bullish outlook for NZDUSD.
4. Positive Economic Data from New Zealand
Recent data out of New Zealand has shown resilience in key sectors like manufacturing and employment. These economic fundamentals provide additional backing for the NZD and suggest that New Zealand’s economy is on solid footing compared to its global counterparts.
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Technical Analysis
Moving Averages and RSI
NZDUSD is currently trading above its 50-day moving average, which indicates a continuation of the bullish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering in neutral territory, signaling that the pair has room to move higher without being overbought.
MACD and Key Levels
The MACD indicator shows a positive momentum shift, with the pair holding above key support levels. Immediate resistance is seen at 0.6350, and a breakout above this level could lead to further gains toward 0.6400. On the downside, support is at 0.6300, which could provide a cushion in case of any pullbacks.
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Conclusion
NZDUSD is likely to experience a slight bullish bias today, supported by rising commodity prices, favorable risk sentiment, and ongoing USD weakness. Traders should watch for further signs of upward momentum, particularly if the pair breaks through key resistance levels. However, caution is warranted as market sentiment can shift quickly.
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NZD/USD Trade Plans For All Scenarios (Tech/Fund Analysis)The NZDUSD alike many other pairs has fallen continually over time, mostly off the back of a stronger USD and some Risk off on geopolitical tensions.
The increased concoction of USD strength is dragging the NZDUSD lower. However, it can only really fall for so long without any kickback. Profits, at some point, have to be taken. It is also likely minor sentiment shifts within these moves will occur, giving way to rebounds.
The earliest noted resistance is such area we may arrive at if sentiment is still sustaining the downside momentum.
If on the other hand, sentiment drastically changes and we see a weaker USD and/or a stronger NZD, we may be taken back to local highs within the sideways movement we have observed over the last year as many economies globally match the US in their easing cycle.
Catalysts for US weakness can come from various factors, but namely FED movements/decisions/rhetoric.
Awaiting further sentiment inflows. Further falls are more than possible so any new longs can be held off.
NZD/USD Insight: High-Probability Targets for the Week AheadAnalysis:
From the HTF Weekly Chart, NZD/USD highlights critical price action after a long-term sell-side liquidity raid at the equal lows. A recent bullish candle close above the last down candle and the swept lows suggests potential upward momentum, confirming a likely retracement or continuation higher.
Key Levels to Watch:
Immediate Target:
- Buyside liquidity at 0.60364 (minimum target).
Potential Reversal Zones:
- Bearish breaker at 0.61600, reinforced by a Fair Value Gap (FVG) at 0.61077, making this
breaker a high-probability resistance zone.
Downside Potential:
- If price reacts at the bearish breaker, anticipate a move lower targeting sell-side liquidity at
0.57720, which aligns with the higher timeframe structure.
Price dynamics will heavily depend on how price reacts to intermediate levels, particularly the bearish breaker and its confluence with the FVG.
Conclusion:
- Short-term: Expect price to reach 0.60364.
- Medium-term: A reaction at 0.61600 could lead to a reversal targeting 0.57720.
- Always trade with confirmation at these key zones.
NZDUSD Short - 27 NovPrice took out Previous Day High. Indicating taking up of liquidity.
Overall Trend is bearish.
Price Bounced back immediately after taking out previous day high, indicating that it is a Liquidity Sweep.
Signaling continuation of price heading downwards.
Price is also in Supply Zone when it bounced out.
1:3RR Trade towards the downside.
NZDUSD D1 | Falling from 50% Fibo?Based on the D1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 0.5938, which is a pullback resistance and a 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit will be at 0.5849, a swing low support level.
The stop loss will be at 0.6027, an overlap resistance level.
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Extremely Bearish on NZD/USD PairZoom out on the weekly chart, we can see the market of NZD/USD is extremely bearish.
1. There are two bearish pennant in the chart, indicating bearishness.
2. Sto-RSI shows oversold in 4hr. Perfect timing for enter the trade
Entry $0.58806
SL $0.594
TP1 $0.55 Zone
TP2 $0.49 Zone
Feel Free to drop the comment if you have different opinion.
NZDUSD to find sellers at current resistance?NZDUSD - 24h expiry
The medium term bias remains bearish.
The rally has posted a correction count on the daily chart.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Bespoke resistance is located at 0.5900.
We look to Sell at 0.5905 (stop at 0.5929)
Our profit targets will be 0.5845 and 0.5830
Resistance: 0.5890 / 0.5920 / 0.5940
Support: 0.5840 / 0.5820 / 0.5800
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