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U.S. Dollar / New Zealand Dollar

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USDNZD trade ideas

NZDUSD Expected Growth! BUY! My dear subscribers, This is my opinion on the NZDUSD next move: The instrument tests an important psychological level 0.6087 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 0.6116 My Stop Loss - 0.6069 About Used Indicators: On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
NZD/USD: Ready for a Bullish Continuation or Bearish Pullback?On this chart, we can see a recent spike in price action, pushing the pair above the 21 EMA (yellow) and the 8 EMA (red), indicating a short-term bullish momentum. The price is currently consolidating around the 0.61100 level, which acts as a temporary support. Key levels to watch are the resistance at 0.61300 and the support at 0.61036. A breakout above the 0.61300 resistance, especially with a strong close above the 21 EMA, could signal a continuation of the bullish move. Conversely, a break below the 0.61036 support could indicate a bearish pullback. Given the current market structure, my bias is slightly bullish, but I will be monitoring the key levels closely for potential breakout or pullback opportunities.
Long
by SheenaL
NZDUSD H4 | Bearish reversalBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 0.6106, which is a pullback resistance and a 50% Fibonacci retracement. Our take profit will be at 0.6059, a swing-low support level. The stop loss will be at 0.6155, an overlap resistance level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
Heading into 50% Fibonacci resistance?NZD/USD is rising the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit. Entry: 0.6104 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 0.6128 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Take profit: 0.6070 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
Bullish rise?The Kiwi (NZD/USD) has bounce of the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance which acts as an overlap resistance. Pivot: 0.6071 1st Support: 0.6050 1st Resistance: 0.6107 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
New Zealand dollar takes a tumble after RBNZ’s dovish toneThe New Zealand dollar is sharply lower on Wednesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6081 in the European session, down 0.72% on the day at the time of writing. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the cash rate at 5.50% at today’s meeting, the eight consecutive time it has maintained rates. No surprise there, but the rate statement was very dovish, which was completely unexpected. At the previous RBNZ meeting in May, policy makers projected that the Bank would not lower interest rates until the third quarter of 2025. Today’s meeting appears to signal a significant shift away from that hawkish stance. The heading of the policy statement was “Inflation Approaching Target Range”, in sharp contrast to the “Official Cash Rate to Remain Restrictive” in May. The statement noted that restrictive monetary policy had “significantly reduced consumer price inflation”, language which was more dovish than in the May statement. In the statement, the central bank acknowledged that policy would remain restrictive but added that this could change if, as expected, inflationary pressures eased. The markets viewed the statement as a signal that the RBNZ might lower rates much sooner than expected, perhaps as early as the August meeting. This has triggered sharp losses for the New Zealand dollar as lower interest rates makes the New Zealand currency less attractive to investors. The money markets have raised the possibility of an August rate cut to 60%, sharply higher than 33% prior to the rate decision. The inflation report for the second quarter, which will be released next Wednesday, will be a critical factor in the RBNZ rate decision in August. NZD/USD has pushed below support at 0.6114 and is testing support at 0.6079. Below, there is support at 0.6013 0.6180 and 0.6215 are the next lines of resistance
by OANDA
Dovish Narrative from RBNZ Triggers NZD SelloffOvernight, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 5.50% for an eighth consecutive meeting, which was widely expected by markets and economists. What did surprise at today’s meeting, however, was the central bank's shift to a more dovish stance, indicating that a rate reduction may be closer than previously anticipated. You may recall that May’s central bank meeting surprised markets and echoed a hawkish tone. This, in turn, delivered strong upside across the board for the New Zealand dollar (NZD). The RBNZ were expected to lower their forecasts, particularly for inflation and the OCR, yet the opposite materialised: an increase in both inflation and OCR forecasts. Additionally, at the previous meeting, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr emphasised this at the press conference, where there was a ‘real consideration’ among policymakers regarding possibly increasing the OCR. Nevertheless, although today’s Summary Record of the Meeting stated that the ‘Committee agreed that monetary policy will need to remain restrictive’, the addition of the following sentence: ‘The extent of this restraint will be tempered over time consistent with the expected decline in inflation pressures’ was a crucial point and represents a deviation from May’s hawkish vibe. Adding to the dovish narrative in today’s release, you may also note that the Summary Record communicated that ‘restrictive monetary policy has significantly reduced consumer price inflation’, though, in May’s statement, it stated that ‘restrictive monetary policy has reduced capacity pressures in the New Zealand economy and lowered consumer price inflation’. The Summary Record also largely repeated that headline inflation is expected to reach the RBNZ’s inflation target range of between 1.0% and 3.0% in the second half of this year. Rate Cut This Year? Several desks believe that the dovish shift is unlikely sufficient to trigger a rate reduction at August’s policy meeting despite the central bank having more data to work with at that point. The only tier-1 data the central bank had before today’s rate decision was GDP growth numbers, which revealed New Zealand’s economy had exited from another technical recession after growth rose +0.2% in Q1 this year, which was in line with the central bank’s forecasts. Ahead of the next policy meeting in August, the central bank will have additional data to assess, such as quarterly CPI inflation and job numbers. Therefore, while a rate cut in August is still questionable – the sizeable dovish repricing in rate expectations shows investors are currently pricing in a 57% chance of a rate cut – this meeting may provide a platform for the central bank to voice its case for a rate reduction in the latter half of the year. September’s meeting is now fully priced for a 25-basis point cut (-33 basis points). NZD Hammered Lower on Dovish Shift Following the announcement, the NZD experienced a sizeable depreciation versus all its G10 peers. There was a notable move to the upside in the AUD/NZD cross in the first hour following the release, adding +0.8% and reaching a high of NZ$1.1092 (testing levels not seen since late 2022). The NZD/USD dropped -0.8% in the first hour to a low of $0.6075, with the major currency pair now trading flat on the month. The downside move in NZD/USD completed a head and shoulders top pattern (head at $0.6154) after rupturing the pattern’s neckline, drawn from the low of $0.6098. As seen from the H4 chart below, technical studies show the pair still demonstrates scope for further downside towards the pattern’s profit objective at $0.6067, closely shadowed by another layer of support between $0.6052 and $0.6062.
Short
by FPMarkets
USD/NZD: Capitalizing on Diverging Central Bank Monetary PolicyThe USD/NZD currency pair presents a strategic opportunity for investors due to the divergent monetary policy stances adopted by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Federal Reserve Adopts Cautious Approach: The U.S. dollar is finding support from the Fed's measured approach towards rate cuts. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a data-dependent strategy, highlighting the need for "greater confidence" regarding inflation reaching the 2% target before considering a policy shift. This cautious stance is further reflected in the stability of the dollar index, despite earlier weakness due to softer payroll data. RBNZ Signals Dovish Shift: In contrast, the RBNZ has exhibited a dovish tilt, hinting at the possibility of rate cuts in the near future. This shift stems from their increased confidence in curbing inflation and bringing it within the 1-3% target range this year. The dovish policy statement triggered a depreciation of the NZD, pushing it 0.51% lower. Analysts anticipate a potential rate cut by the RBNZ before year-end, as evidenced by market expectations pricing in a 30 basis point easing by October. Market Response: The divergence in central bank policies is evident in the contrasting performance of the USD and NZD. The USD remains firm due to the Fed's cautious optimism, while the NZD faces pressure from the RBNZ's dovish signals. This dynamic is further amplified by the recent appreciation of the Australian dollar against the NZD. Investment Implications: Importance of Central Bank Communication and Economic Data: Investors should closely monitor central bank pronouncements and upcoming economic data releases, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report in the U.S. and the June quarter inflation report in New Zealand. These reports will significantly influence market expectations and shape the future trajectory of the USD/NZD pair. Navigating the Market Environment: The Fed's monetary policy stance and upcoming inflation data will be crucial factors determining the direction of the USD. Conversely, the RBNZ's inflation outlook and potential rate cuts will be key drivers for the NZD. Conclusion: The USD/NZD currency pair presents a compelling opportunity for investors seeking to capitalize on the contrasting monetary policies of the Fed and RBNZ. By staying informed about upcoming data releases and adapting to evolving economic conditions, investors can strategically navigate this dynamic market environment.
Long
by signalmastermind
The "kiwi" sharply fell after the central bank's decisionAnalysis of NZD/USD: The "kiwi" sharply fell after the central bank's decision The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the interest rate unchanged at 5.5% on Wednesday. The decision to maintain the interest rate was anticipated. However, market participants noted a shift in the tone of the RBNZ's official statements. In May, the bank indicated that the tight policy would continue as long as necessary, but now it is open to easing the restrictive monetary policy if inflation slows down. As a result, market participants are now considering the possibility of a nearer-term rate cut, which led to a decline in the New Zealand dollar relative to other currencies. Specifically, against the US dollar, the "kiwi" fell by approximately 0.75%. Will the decline continue as the situation develops? According to the technical analysis of the NZD/USD chart today: → In 2024, the exchange rate dynamics are significantly influenced by interactions with the levels: 0.62150 (resistance), 0.58850 (support), and 0.60500 (which acts as a pivot between support and resistance, as indicated by the black arrows). → Bullish sentiment prevailed in the market since May, resulting in the formation of an upward blue channel on the chart. However, the bulls were unable to break through the 0.62150 resistance, and now the median of the blue channel serves as resistance (indicated by the blue arrow). Considering the prospect of further NZD/USD price decline, it is important to note obstacles in the path of the bears in the form of supports: → from the lower boundary of the blue channel; → from the 0.60500 level, around which the price has fluctuated since the beginning of the year; → from the psychological level of 0.6. Therefore, technically, it is possible that the downward momentum created today due to the RBNZ decision may weaken when attempting to break through these supports. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
NZDUSD H4 | Bearish reversalBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 0.6147, which is a multi-swing high resistance and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Our take profit will be at 0.6106, an overlap support level close to 50% Fibo retracement. The stop loss will be at 0.6193, an overlap resistance level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
RBNZ: Hawkish hold likely but NZD risks are skewed lowerToday’s RBNZ rate decision could be an nothing-burger or a very big deal. I doubt we’ll see anything in between. There are no updated forecasts, nor a press conference from RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr. Just a statement. The last time that occurred it was one of the shortest updates in history. Risks for NZD/USD appear skewed to the downside considering the RBNZ surprised hawkish just six weeks ago. With little top-tier data since, and the important Q2 New Zealand inflation report not due until this time next week, a repeat performance comes across as likely. With two-year Kiwi interest rate swaps sitting at multi-month lows, it may encourage the bank to retain a hawkish tone given it flows through to most New Zealand mortgages, and therefore important for monetary policy transmission. But everyone can see the deterioration in the New Zealand economy. It may not be in recession but it might as well be given the data flow outside of GDP. The only thing standing between the RBNZ and a rate cut is sticky domestic inflation. With only a one-in-three chance given to a rate cut when the RBNZ next meets in August, should the RBNZ surprise with a conditional easing bias in the final paragraph of today’s statement, it could lead to an abrupt decline for NZD/USD. That’s why risks appear skewed in that direction. It has a track record for delivering unexpected surprises. When it last met in May, the RBNZ simply said policy “needs to remain restrictive”. For NZD/USD, support is located at .6105, the 200-day moving average at .6073 and at .6050. On the topside, .6150 and .6218 are the initial levels to watch. Should we see a big deviation following the statement, I expect it to be faded considering the far more important data releases for markets this week is yet to arrive, US CPI on Thursday. DS
by FOREXcom
NZDUSD: Profit taking into RBNZ decisionNZDUSD – technical overview Overall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action. R2 0.6222 – 12 June high – Strong R1 0.6200 – Figure – Medium S1 0.6048 – 2 July low – Medium S2 0.6031 – 15 May low – Strong NZDUSD – fundamental overview There is no change expected from the RBNZ today, though we have seen profit taking into the event risk. We've also seen some Kiwi selling on the New Zealand Treasury's reporting of weaker sales, with consumers experiencing hardship. Absence of first tier data on Wednesday’s calendar will leave the focus on another round of Fed Chair testimony and some Fed speak. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets