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U.S. Dollar / New Zealand Dollar

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USDNZD trade ideas

NZD/USD Trend for Upcoming US FOMC MeetingNZD/USD news: 🔆The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered a widely expected 50 basis point rate cut, reducing the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.75%, in line with both previous expectations and the central bank’s previous guidance. However, the most notable dovish change came from the updated OCR guidance, which indicates a faster approach to the median 3% by year-end, now projected at 3.1% rather than the previous forecast of 3.6% in November. The revised trajectory suggests a further 50 basis point cut in the second quarter, likely split into two 25 basis point cuts in April and May, followed by a 25 basis point cut in the third quarter and a potenti 🔆Inflation forecasts point to a divergence between tradable and non-tradable goods. The RBNZ has revised its tradable goods inflation forecast upward, citing the depreciation of the NZD, rising oil prices and trade uncertainty. Meanwhile, non-tradable inflation is expected to continue to decline due to weak domestic demand and a cooling labour market. Growth forecasts remain subdued, with the output gap widening further into negative territory. The RBNZ believes the market reaction has been measured, as early easing has been priced in. 🔆While maintaining their final rate forecast at 3% for the end of the year, they revised their forecast to account for a further 25 basis point cut in Q2, bringing their Q2 end forecast to 3.25%, down from their previous estimate of 3.50%. Their Q3 forecast remains unchanged at a 25 basis point cut, taking the OCR to 3.00%, down from their previous forecast of 3.25%, with a possible pause until the end of the year. The risk remains that the RBNZ could accelerate the pace of easing if growth weakens further or slow the trajectory if inflation becomes more persistent. Personal opinion: 🔆The USD is expected to strengthen after the FOMC meeting tonight, the NZD is currently being sold off after the Official Cash Rate announcement and is expected to continue to decline in the short term. Technical analysis: 🔆Based on important resistance - support zones and trend lines combined with published basic economic information Plan: 🔆 Price Zone Setup: 👉Sell NZD/USD 0.5700 – 0.5720 ❌SL: 0.5760 | ✅TP: 0.5660 – 0.5610 – 0.5570 FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Short
by FM-ForexMastermind
1
NZD/USD - Bullish Engulfing at Support for Long Entry📈 Trade Idea: Long NZD/USD Analysis: Price formed a bullish engulfing candle at the 0.5700 key support level, signaling strong buying pressure. This level previously acted as resistance and has now turned into support, confirming a potential continuation of the uptrend. Trade Plan (Based on Chart Setup): 🔹 Entry: 0.5714 (bullish engulfing confirmation) 🔹 Stop Loss: 0.5694 (below structure, invalidates setup) 🔹 Take Profit: 0.5775 (next resistance zone) Why this trade? ✔️ Bullish engulfing pattern at key support ✔️ Break-and-retest confirmation of previous resistance as support ✔️ Strong uptrend continuation setup 📌 Looking for price to stay above 0.5700 to maintain bullish bias.
Long
by riojulianprt62512
RBNZ lowers rates by 50 bps, NZ dollar gains groundThe New Zealand dollar has posted gains on Wednesday.  NZD/USD is trading at 0.5721 in the European session, up 0.31% on the day. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand slashed the cash rate by 50 basis points, bringing the cash rate to 3.75%.  The markets had priced in the cut at 90% so there was no surprise at the jumbo cut.  This lowered the cash rate to its lowest level since Nov. 2022.  The RBNZ demonstrated again that it can be aggressive, as it has cut rates by 175 basis points since the easing cycle started last August. The New Zealand dollar is stronger on Wednesday, which is somewhat surprising, given the jumbo rate cut and the RBNZ's signal that further rate cuts are on the way in the coming months. The rate statement noted that the members were confident lowering rates as CPI remained near the midpoint of the 1%-3% target band.  At the same time, members expressed concern that economic activity in New Zealand and abroad were "subdued" which posed a risk to economic growth. The statement also made a brief mention of "trade restrictions" which could dampen economic growth.  No mention was made of US President Trump's tariff threats but policymakers are clearly concerned that US tariffs, even if not aimed directly at New Zealand, could chill the global economy and hurt the country's key export sector. In a follow-up press conference, Governor Adrian Orr said that the Bank expected to lower the cash rate to 3% by the end of the year.  This forecast was lower than the November projection of 3.2% by year's end.  The central bank is expected to deliver smaller rate cuts of 25-bps in the coming months. NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.5713.  Above, there is resistance at 0.5731 0.5686 and 0.5668 and the next support levels
by OANDA
1
Lingrid | NZDUSD Trend Continuation Trade. LongFX:NZDUSD market continues to establish higher highs and higher lows, showing bullish momentum. It broke and closed above the key level of 0.570000. Overall, the market is forming an ABCD move. The price pulled back towards the support level, then bounced off it, taking out the liquidity below. Furthermore, on the daily timeframe, the price made a fake breakout of the previous day's low. Considering this fake breakout, it could signal a trend continuation, completing the ABCD move. I expect the price moving higher, potentially retesting the November low. My goal is resistance one around 0.57800 Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
Long
by Lingrid
5
NZD/USD Strength Persists: Dips Remain Buying OpportunitiesOver the past two weeks, I have drawn attention to major USD pairs, suggesting that a reversal could be imminent and that an upside correction might follow the downtrend from the last quarter of 2024. NZD/USD is no exception. After finding strong support around the 0.5550 zone, the pair began to reverse to the upside. Following last week’s higher low, it broke resistance on Friday. After an initial correction and confirmation, bulls have regained control. I expect NZD strength to continue, and as long as 0.5650 holds, there is a high probability of a move toward 0.58 or higher. In conclusion, buying dips remains a favorable strategy, aiming for a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
NZD/USD - 1H Analysis & Prediction📉 NZD/USD - 1H Analysis & Prediction 🔹 Key Levels & Market Structure: ✅ 0.5754 - 0.57588: First supply zone, potential rejection. ✅ 0.57817 - 0.57937: Major resistance, watch for liquidity grab. ✅ 0.5706 - 0.5708: Key support, possible bullish reaction. ✅ 0.56713: Critical downside target if supply zones hold. 🚀 Bearish Scenario: 🔹 If price rejects 0.5754 - 0.57588, a drop toward 0.5706 - 0.5708 is likely. 🔹 A deeper rejection from 0.57817 - 0.57937 could accelerate the downside move. 💡 Trading Plan: ✅ Look for bearish confirmations near resistance for short entries. ✅ Watch Fibonacci retracement zones for potential reversals. ✅ Break below 0.5706 confirms strong downside momentum. #fxforever #NZDUSD #SmartMoney #PriceAction #ForexTrading #LiquidityHunt #Fibonacci
Short
by FXFOREVER_87
NZDUSD: Brace for Another Bearish MovementNZDUSD: Brace for Another Bearish Movement The NZDUSD pair has recently broken down from a minor bearish pattern near the 0.5750 level. With the US market reopening after a long weekend, the USD is expected to strengthen, increasing the likelihood of a downward movement for the NZDUSD, as illustrated in the chart. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is anticipated to cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 3.75% from the current 4.25% on February 19, 2025. This rate cut could further support the bearish trend. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️ Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by KlejdiCuni
7
NZD/USD: Flipping the Script at .5700?NZD/USD struggled above .5700 recently, but now that it’s pushed through, maybe the opposite will hold true. Price action around today’s RBNZ decision—where the bank delivered a third straight 50bp cut and flagged at least two more, possibly three—suggests it might. The post-decision dip below .5700 was snapped up quickly, casting doubt on the bearish signal from the three-candle evening star pattern completed Tuesday. If the rebound holds, minor resistance sits at .5723 (Jan 24 high), with a tougher test at .5750, where last week’s rally ran out of steam. A break there puts .5800 and .5888 in play. It’s too early to say whether the rising wedge pattern the Kiwi is trading in will be respected, but that’s another thing for longs to watch. The price has run a long way just while writing this, but dips towards and below .5700 look like solid long entry points, improving risk-reward while offering nearby levels for stops, like the 50DMA.Momentum indicators are flashing bullish, favouring dip-buying and bullish breaks in the near term. If NZD/USD were to close beneath the 50DMA, the bullish bias would be nixed. Good luck! DS
Long
by FOREXcom
Bullish continuation?The Kiwi (NZD/USD) has bounced off the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could rise to the pullback resistance. Pivot: 0.5691 1st Support: 0.5665 1st Resistance: 0.5753 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
Bullish bounce?NZD/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 0.5664 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 0.5606 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Take profit: 0.5745 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
NZDUSD OUTLOOKOn the monthly charts, we have a bearish outlook with signs of bullish correction. On the same monthly chart, we have a fresh order block indicating there is downside pressure. Lately, the Kiwi has come under a lot of pressure since China cut their interest rates. Presently we are anticipating a further weakening of the kiwi across the board caused by weakening economic data from China. On the daily charts, the Kiwi is set to form new lows confirming the medium term bearish trend as we wind down the year.
by morrisgitau
New Zealand dollar slips ahead of expected RBNZ cutThe New Zealand dollar is sharply lower on Tuesday.  NZD/USD is trading at 0.5700 in the North American session, down 0.62% on the day. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Wednesday for the first time this year.  The RBNZ lowered rates by a half-point at the last meeting on Nov. 27 and the markets have priced in another half-point cut on Wednesday at 90%, which would bring the cash rate down to 3.75%.  The central bank held rates for over a year but has aggressively cut rates by 125 basis points in the current easing cycle. The RBNZ has telegraphed its plan to cut rates by a half-point on Wednesday and we could see a limited response from the New Zealand dollar, since the decision has been priced in. Still, the US/New Zealand rate differential will widen and that could spell headwinds in the near term for the New Zealand dollar, which plunged 13% in the fourth quarter 2024 but has gained 1.9% since Jan 1. What can we expect from the RBNZ after tomorrow's anticipated rate cut? The RBNZ's updated forecasts are expected to show the cash rate declining towards 3 percent, but in smaller increments of quarter-point cuts. This will depend on the strength of the economy and the direction of inflation. Another factor which could affect the rate path is the new US administration which has already started imposing tariffs. New Zealand is vulnerable to US tariffs as the US is its second-largest trading partner, accounting for about 12% of New Zealand exports. Even if the US does not target New Zealand with tariffs, the trade war between the US and China has clouded the inflation outlook and is will likely hamper global growth. NZD/USD is putting pressure on support at 0.5691.  Below, there is support at 0.5643 0.5781 and 0.5829 and the next resistance lines
by OANDA