U.S. Dollar / New Zealand Dollar forum
NZDUSD tradingview.com/x/y5Pr2rpY H4 I posted my insight about The next draw of Liquidity check it out
NZDUSD Idea:Next draw of liquidity: NzdUsd0.58083 is a weekly POI that has been respected before. I'm anticipating the price to retest that zone again this week, hence anticipating the news (Existing Home Sales) by 10:00 New York times to push price to my point of interest and rejection kicks in.
Therefore this weekly candle might close with a rejection of that zone and next week would be bearish till we clear this week low 0.56779
I'm anticipating the price to also clear the previous week's low (the monthly low) 0.55164 by next month.
Kindly boost if you find this insightful 🫴
tradingview.com/x/LBNWZrVs
NZDUSD Trump says there might be a possibility for trade deal with china and the proxy pairs just go up. No concrete response or update, just a casual ‘might’ from the might trump. This is not a great time to trade on fx. The guy can say something on a post or on television and boom goes the market!! Amazing. Fundamentally NZD should be weaker and the BofNZ also prefers the same but market thinks trump triumphs otherwise
NZDUSD What do you think about FM's plan?
tradingview.com/chart/NZDUSD/mCbuYqEx-NZD-USD-Trend-for-Upcoming-US-FOMC-Meeting/
NZDUSD 🔥 NZD/USD Short – The Smart Money Play ExplainedThe Fundamentals – Why NZD is Weak & USD is Strong?
🔹 RBNZ Just Went Dovish: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) hinted at future rate cuts, signaling that they’re backing off from their previous hawkish stance. This weakens the NZD because lower interest rates = less demand for the currency.
🔹 USD Remains King: While the Fed is playing it safe on rate cuts, the U.S. economy is still strong. High inflation, solid labor market data, and stable growth make the USD fundamentally stronger than the NZD.
🔹 The Rate Differential Matters: Traders will always favor currencies from stronger economies with higher rates. Since the Fed isn’t cutting anytime soon, money flows out of NZD and into USD.
🚀 Fundamental Bias? Bearish NZD/USD. The smart money is short.
📌 2️⃣ Sentiment – Where’s the Retail Money?
🔹 Retail Traders are Trapped Long: Sentiment data from MyFXBook shows that over 70% of retail traders are buying NZD/USD.
🔹 Why is this a big deal? Because retail is almost always wrong—smart money moves against them.
🔹 What Happens Next? The market will likely engineer a move to trap more buyers, then dump lower—exactly what we positioned for.
🚀 Sentiment Bias? Bearish. This confirms our short setup.
📌 3️⃣ The Technicals – This is Not Random
📌 H4 Structure:
✅ Price grabbed liquidity at the supply zone before reversing.
✅ Break of Structure (BOS) confirmed lower lows = Downtrend intact.
✅ FVG (Fair Value Gap) acted as resistance, rejecting price lower.
📌 M15 Refinement:
✅ Strong imbalance around 0.5730, trapping late buyers.
✅ CHoCH (Change of Character) confirmed Smart Money shift bearish.
✅ Our entry was at the last unmitigated supply zone—textbook Smart Money play.
🚀 Technical Bias? Clean, high-probability short with smart money confirmation.
📌 Entry: 0.5730 (Perfect supply zone rejection)
📌 Stop-Loss: 0.5745 (Above liquidity trap)
📌 Take-Profit 1: 0.5700 (First demand reaction)
📌 Take-Profit 2: 0.5665 (Deeper liquidity sweep)
📌 Risk-to-Reward: 1:2.5+ 🚀
📌 🔥 Why This Trade is High-Probability?
🚨 This isn’t just a random short—everything lines up perfectly:
✅ Fundamentals confirm NZD weakness + USD strength
✅ Retail traders are trapped long = Smart Money will push lower
✅ Technicals show a clean liquidity grab, BOS, and unmitigated supply
NZDUSD OCR projection was further downgraded by 50bps to 3%. This pair should be going down but for some reason is sticking up. It is aptly called proxy pair for China.NZDUSD manipulated at best! 50bps cut and more cuts in the next two quarters but still going up…
NZDUSD Short opportunity with little downside.
NZDUSD sigh the chart just flip ? i have yet to take the profit yet
NZDUSD Have'nt traded this pair in a while but i caught a nice "V" shaped buy from the daily bull fvg created last week. $400 before bedtime and im out. all tp's hit