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U.S. Dollar / Polish Zloty

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USDPLN trade ideas

4.25$ SupportDollar once again hit 4.25$ level which was resistance from 2016 to february 2022 when price went above and this way created support which was tested in may/june 2022, january/february 2023 and right now. It seems solid so I would expect 5$ level retest in the near future and that way creating double bottom on current support. But if price will go below 4.25 and the volumen will be significant it can fall down. On 12th April US CPI level is going to be published and on 14th April PL CPI. Having up-to-date information, I do not plan to open a position earlier than next week.
by ven0x0
Time to short the Polish ZlotyThe idea is very simple... Despite it having a significantly higher interest rate than the US, capital isn't flowing in the country. Poland is in a very tough place right now, as it has a relatively small economy and doesn't have a currency that is widely used. Europe overall is a big mess, and the PLN is affected by the EUR too. The ECB still has rates at -0.5% and Poland has rates at 6%, yet EURPLN is near its ATHs. In the charts below you can see how bad EURUSD looks, which I think will go below 1.03 to sweep the lows and then maybe bounce for a while, and how EURPLN might have formed a massive top. Therefore it might be a better idea to short EURUSD than going long USDPLN (short PLNUSD), as it will have a lower carry. Yet the structure of USDPLN is much cleaner, and a breakout could be massive. I definitely expect to see the USDPLN highs swept, then a pullback and then continuation higher. This consolidation looks very bullish, and a breakout would potentially lead to a major expansion over time. The main fundamentals behind this is that Poland can't sustain such high rates with such high energy prices as the economy will collapse, and at the same time it does look like Poland would be one of the next countries that Russia will attack. Unfortunately it feels like a matter of time until Russia fully conquers Ukraine, something that will hurt Poland very badly due to its ties with Ukraine, and then it feels like a matter of time until they begin their next war.
Long
by BitcoinMacro
2
USDPLN - still going uphi, best regards from Poland, from my work I see that USDPLN can hit 5.4 zl or even 5.6 zl I think that we are on the beginning of creating one of the shoulders - waiting for a head, even one head or even two heads... Situation is still dramatic - FED officially said that it is fighting with inflation. Still. It is major and the most important factor and risk in this game. Then we got war, still, without any conclusion how it will end... many scenarios are being plays. I do not believe in atomic attack. I think that this war will be to last drop of blood. Like Armenia and Azerbaijan conflict. Major issue - still Europe is without gas, oil, no working pipelines for German, Poland. France and Italy or Spain are going very good. I wish you good luck in this hard game, But remember the most important and cycles. We got economical cycles and we see that there is one being played on USDPLN - Long. Look on the chart in long term - compare 2000 highs, then lows and see where goes arrows.
Long
by WinterManOnTheSky
USDPLN - 2 YEAR POSITION LONGUSA BUDGET REVENUES - 2.45 T Poland - 88.3 B (28 Times less than USA) USA is outperforming Poland in these metrics: Exports, GDP (See link for variations) , Gross National Income, Human Development Index, Purchasing Power Parity, Inbound Tourism Income, balance of payments, central government debts, foreign direct investment, economic freedom, companies listed domestic, market capitalization of listed companies, total reserves, high technology exports, gross domestic savings, consumption by sector, GNI, innovation, electricity consumption per capita, welfare, patents granted, natural gas production, steel production, overall productivity ppp Link where data was pulled: www.nationmaster.com Inflation is at 25 year high at 15.6% for Poland. I do not think NBP will be able to handle a potential collapse of the euro, and the negative implications that it would cause for the Polish Zloty. As the dollar demand increases throughout the world, we might even see a liquidity crisis if enough bail outs are needed when dollar starts jumping on safe haven premium. A while back I called USDTRY buys at 5.78 which would have been face melting positions if I would've held for over 1 year. That same pair is now 18+ So imagine just how bad USDPLN can get when it is ONLY 4.9, I'm expecting at least 10-15 USDPLN for the future... Data for CPI = www.nbp.pl Stay safe, WAGMI
Editors' picks
Long
by AlmightyPips
18