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U.S. Dollar / Polish Zloty

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USDPLN trade ideas

Time to short the Polish ZlotyThe idea is very simple... Despite it having a significantly higher interest rate than the US, capital isn't flowing in the country. Poland is in a very tough place right now, as it has a relatively small economy and doesn't have a currency that is widely used. Europe overall is a big mess, and the PLN is affected by the EUR too. The ECB still has rates at -0.5% and Poland has rates at 6%, yet EURPLN is near its ATHs. In the charts below you can see how bad EURUSD looks, which I think will go below 1.03 to sweep the lows and then maybe bounce for a while, and how EURPLN might have formed a massive top. Therefore it might be a better idea to short EURUSD than going long USDPLN (short PLNUSD), as it will have a lower carry. Yet the structure of USDPLN is much cleaner, and a breakout could be massive. I definitely expect to see the USDPLN highs swept, then a pullback and then continuation higher. This consolidation looks very bullish, and a breakout would potentially lead to a major expansion over time. The main fundamentals behind this is that Poland can't sustain such high rates with such high energy prices as the economy will collapse, and at the same time it does look like Poland would be one of the next countries that Russia will attack. Unfortunately it feels like a matter of time until Russia fully conquers Ukraine, something that will hurt Poland very badly due to its ties with Ukraine, and then it feels like a matter of time until they begin their next war.
Long
by BitcoinMacro
2
USDPLN - still going uphi, best regards from Poland, from my work I see that USDPLN can hit 5.4 zl or even 5.6 zl I think that we are on the beginning of creating one of the shoulders - waiting for a head, even one head or even two heads... Situation is still dramatic - FED officially said that it is fighting with inflation. Still. It is major and the most important factor and risk in this game. Then we got war, still, without any conclusion how it will end... many scenarios are being plays. I do not believe in atomic attack. I think that this war will be to last drop of blood. Like Armenia and Azerbaijan conflict. Major issue - still Europe is without gas, oil, no working pipelines for German, Poland. France and Italy or Spain are going very good. I wish you good luck in this hard game, But remember the most important and cycles. We got economical cycles and we see that there is one being played on USDPLN - Long. Look on the chart in long term - compare 2000 highs, then lows and see where goes arrows.
Long
by WinterManOnTheSky
USDPLN - 2 YEAR POSITION LONGUSA BUDGET REVENUES - 2.45 T Poland - 88.3 B (28 Times less than USA) USA is outperforming Poland in these metrics: Exports, GDP (See link for variations) , Gross National Income, Human Development Index, Purchasing Power Parity, Inbound Tourism Income, balance of payments, central government debts, foreign direct investment, economic freedom, companies listed domestic, market capitalization of listed companies, total reserves, high technology exports, gross domestic savings, consumption by sector, GNI, innovation, electricity consumption per capita, welfare, patents granted, natural gas production, steel production, overall productivity ppp Link where data was pulled: www.nationmaster.com Inflation is at 25 year high at 15.6% for Poland. I do not think NBP will be able to handle a potential collapse of the euro, and the negative implications that it would cause for the Polish Zloty. As the dollar demand increases throughout the world, we might even see a liquidity crisis if enough bail outs are needed when dollar starts jumping on safe haven premium. A while back I called USDTRY buys at 5.78 which would have been face melting positions if I would've held for over 1 year. That same pair is now 18+ So imagine just how bad USDPLN can get when it is ONLY 4.9, I'm expecting at least 10-15 USDPLN for the future... Data for CPI = www.nbp.pl Stay safe, WAGMI
Long
by AlmightyPips
17
Review of the USDPLN chart on the 1D intervalHi everyone, Let's take a look at the USDPLN chart in the 1-day range. As you can see, we moved in an uptrend channel marked with yellow lines for a while, then entered a downtrend marked with blue lines, and then exited from the top. It is worth setting the first support zone from PLN 4.63 to PLN 4.57, and then we have a strong support zone from PLN 4.47 to PLN 4.37. Looking further, we see another support at the level of PLN 4.24 Now let's move on to the resistance that the USD valuation has on the way and we can see that the first resistance is a strong zone from 4.72 to 4.78 PLN and another resistance at 4.86 PLN. Let's take a look at the Chop indicator, which shows that we are getting energized after the last increase, and the MACD indicator shows a local downtrend.
Long
by cryptodailyuk
Review of the USD / PLN chart on the 1D intervalHi everyone, Let's take a look at the USDPLN chart on the 1-day interval. As you can see, for some time we were moving in the uptrend channel marked by yellow lines, but now we are moving in the local downward trend. It is worth setting the first support line at 4.54 PLN, and then we have a strong support zone from 4.47 PLN to 4.37 PLN. Looking further, we see another support at the level of PLN 4.24 Now let's move on to the resistance that the USD valuation has on its way and we see that the first resistance appears at 4.64PLN, the next one at 4.68PLN, then we have a strong resistance zone from 4.72PLN to 4.78PLN and the next resistance at 4.86PLN. Let's look at the Chop indicator which shows that we still have a lot of energy and the MACD indicator shows a local downward trend, but the blue line bends strongly and is close to the intersection of the red line from the bottom, which would confirm the upward trend change.
by cryptodailyuk
8