USDRUB longLongterm trade idea.
We see the Russian economy in shambles.
Add buys on every pullback.
Trust the process
USDRUB_TDB trade ideas
USDRUB - 240 - Continues to drift higherQuick idea.
USDRUB had broken two downside lines - a short-term one and a medium-term one. Now, the pair continues to drift further north. Certainly, at some we may get a bit of a correction, but for now, we will continue targeting the long-term downside resistance line taken from the highest point of December 2018.
Please see the chart for details.
Don't forget your stop-loss.
USDRUB Buy and sell planPattern: Channel Down on 1M.
Signal: Bullish and bearish reversal once the MACD shifts to bearish. Ideally near the red resistance zone.
Target: 61.000.
USD/RUB Short IdeaPrice overall still has bearish sentiment. The 200 MA on the daily has been serving as dynamic resistance since October 2019. Price is currently rejecting the 61.8% fib level. Unless price breaches the trendline as noted, watch for drop to next level as noted.
USD/RUB - MOVING TO 61.8Here price just have bounced from 0.618 FIBO and crossed the support line. Thats why I am waiting for the next support level near 61.8 RUB.
ridethepig | RUB Spot Commentary 2020.01.20Now bull's reserves have been activated and exhausted, the diagonal swing towards the new lows at the key 60 handle is the aim. This momentum play is a characteristic impulsive swing. The moves constitute a great example of the lust to exploit the brilliant effect of technical analysis, because of the accuracy that is endowed with incredible resilience.
The first compelling chart shows the highs being set in this monthly swing; the total removal of its lows opened up the same flows in EURRUB:
The swings we have just glimpsed at are quite typical and although it will likely not feel necessary here, the importance of in checking the 60 handle for headlines and masses. Mostly only one player benefits from this entire flow, but that is quite sufficient.
I expect sellers to show some strength over the coming days and weeks. A lot of talk of few large hands in Oil buying dividends. In any case looking for the infamous 60 target.
Thanks as usual for all the support with likes, comments, charts and etc. Jump into the conversation with any questions.
Situation USDRUBChart USDRUB W. Global outlook for 2020. An interesting point on the chart. It seems that the ruble is completing its strengthening. By the end of the year I expect the ruble per dollar in the region of 74-76 rub.
TOP 5. Issue 24 from 19.01.2020Weekly update with the outlook on my 5 favorite trading instruments where I place around 90% of the deals.
These include: SPX , Gold , Crude Oil , EURUSD pair and the Emerging markets via USDRUB .
If you like what you see, please fell free to hit the Like bottom and leave your comments.
Disclaimer:
By viewing this video you fully accept and agree that it offers general advice only and that trading the financial markets is a high risk activity and that you understand that past performance does not indicate future performance and that the value of investments and income from them may go up as well as down, and are not guaranteed.
The US & China, Russian reforms and an oil situationAfter the United States and China completed the first phase of negotiations, the result of which was not as rosy as many expected, the markets decided to take a break and continued to develop existing trends.
Note that the current optimism has exhausted itself. But the negative on the horizon more than enough. Only the first step has been taken. Now the parties need to move on and begin the negotiation process on phase number 2. Given that the first phase was an extremely painful process, we are waiting for a problem on the way to the second.
Do not forget also that the first phase still needs to be performed. For example, China must buy hundreds of billions of dollars of agricultural products from the United States. Not the fact that he will do it.
Therefore, you should not expect a happy ending in the foreseeable future. Accordingly, we continue to look for points for the purchase of safe-haven assets both within the day and in the medium-term - gold and the Japanese yen.
The growing pressure on the oil market is largely due to market concerns. Trade wars have shown themselves to be extremely destructive. Their continuation is further damage to the global economy, which in turn will lead to a decrease in oil demand.
Nevertheless, we consider current oil prices favorable for intraday purchases (with small stops). The situation in Iran is very unstable; in Iraq, too, not everything is calm. That is, problems with the supply of oil on the market can arise at any time.
In the news plan, the most interesting continued to happen around Russia and the Russian ruble. A more detailed analysis of the situation and our recommendation to sell the Russian ruble we will do in a separate review. In the meantime, we note that many experts perceive the dissolution of the Government and Putin's initiative to amend the Constitution as the next qualitatively new level of the usurpation of power. Which in itself is bad, because it deprives at least some hope of a change in the course and manner of behavior of the Russian Federation in the international arena with all the ensuing in the form of sanctions and the role of the rogue state.
As for macroeconomic statistics on Thursday, the main event of the day was the publication of data on retail sales in the United States. The data came out exactly as part of the forecasts.
Today, in the news plan, it is interesting with data on China's GDP (released as part of forecasts), as well as retail sales in the UK, inflation in the Eurozone and industrial production in the United States. In general, the day promises to be eventful, which means movements in the foreign exchange market and, accordingly, the possibility of earning.
The end of the positive, pressure on the pound & BoEThe US and China have signed documents for the first phase of the trade deal. It would seem that this has been expected for a very long time and this is an excellent occasion for a mass exodus from safe-haven assets and another injection of capital into risky assets. But it was not there. Gold yesterday was more than comfortable, and the Japanese yen in the foreign exchange market stopped pouring.
The reason for this market behavior is that most US tariffs on Chinese goods will continue until the second phase of the agreement is signed. So, we can again recall the slowdown in the global economy as a result of trade wars, and the ghost of a global recession has become more tangible.
In general, we continue to recommend the purchase of safe-haven assets. The inability of gold and Japanese yen sellers to use their main reason to intensify the decline in prices for safe-haven assets very clearly signals their weakness.
Another pretty important event yesterday was the publication of inflation data from the UK. Unexpectedly, for most experts, inflation slowed to a three-year low (annual consumer price inflation in the UK fell to 1.3% in December from 1.5% in November). Considering that the issue of lowering interest rates by the Bank of England has recently been actively accelerated among analysts, now there are many more reasons for this. Actually, many are waiting for a rate reduction this month.
Formally, the pound is a strong bearish signal. But we will not rush to sell it anyway. Recent events show that Brexit has been and remains the main driver of the pound's dynamics. It is news from these fronts that can provoke the formation of directional movement in pound pairs.
And since Brexit is going according to plan so far, we see no reason to revise our recommendation for pound purchases intraday and medium-term. Recall that with favorable developments, the growth potential of the pound paired with the dollar is about 1000 points.
From yesterday's data, it is worth noting also the weak data on industrial production in the Eurozone: -1.5% with a forecast of -1.0%. In this light, recall that the EUR/JPY pair is still at excellent points of sale.
Today, all financial markets are focusing on US retail sales data. We will prepare for weak data, and accordingly, we will look for points for its sales in the foreign exchange market. The best candidate for this role is the USD/JPY pair.
We consider the dissolution of the Government in Russia and the plan to redistribute the system of power in the country as an excellent opportunity to sell expensive Russian rubles. The usurpation of power from the point of view of modern history has rarely led to something good for the country's economy.
TOP 5. Issue 23 from 12.01.2020Weekly update with the outlook on my 5 favorite trading instruments where I place around 90% of the deals.
These include: SPX , Gold , Crude Oil , EURUSD pair and the Emerging markets via USDRUB .
If you like what you see, please fell free to hit the Like bottom and leave your comments.
Disclaimer:
By viewing this video you fully accept and agree that it offers general advice only and that trading the financial markets is a high risk activity and that you understand that past performance does not indicate future performance and that the value of investments and income from them may go up as well as down, and are not guaranteed.
Selling ain't over for USDRUBI read somewhere there is a co-relation between high oil prices and the ruble currency. But rather than heading into that area, let us focus on the charts instead.
The recent Iran matter that drives the oil prices up will further deteriorate the USDRUB. But please note that there is strong support at price level from 60.80 to 61.58. So, if it plays out as planned, there is about 1500 pips to go down.
For those who wants to short, wait for the sell signal by going to lower time frame, say 4H and check the price action. Trade cautiously.
