The Russia Risk It is hardly surprising to see USD/RUB creeping through its 2020-2022 resistance line given the increasing tensions between Russia and the Ukraine. That gives us the fundamental reason, but how can the chart to help with our trading strategy when something is hard quantify from a fundamental perspective?
Will Russia invade the Ukraine? Who knows, I was chatting about this with my friend yesterday who is convinced they will not, due to the risk of sanctions, but I have to say I am not so convinced and there is a real risk here and I am not convinced that the markets are fully pricing in that risk premium….and here’s where some basic chart knowledge really comes into its own. Charts help to take out some of the emotion out of decision making and it has some basic rules. For example, the definition of an up move is for higher reaction highs and higher reaction lows. For USD/RUB the last reaction low and the 55-day moving average coincide well in the 74.36/25 region, so placing a stop below there is logical. Too far away? Look at an hourly chart and follow the same principle.
Need a target zone, or somewhere you need to aim for? The 2016-2022 resistance line at 81.40 is a good place to start. What do you do when it starts to reach your target zone? There is a decision to be made... do you lock in profits and exit or hold on? You need to take a closer look at the chart at this point– is the RSI overbought? Is the market running out of steam, struggling to get through this level? At the very least you should be looking to tighten your stops.
By the way resistance lines that only connect 2 points are not as good as down trends (these connect 3 points) and with USD/RUB bouncing off its 2014-2022 uptrend at the end of last year all the risks are on the topside. Above 81.40, we have the 82.86 March 2020 high and the 85.98 January 2016 high.
Disclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
