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U.S. Dollar / Russian Ruble TOM

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USDRUB_TOM trade ideas

USDRUB updateUR has reached strong fibo level. It seems like it will continue to rise(big bullish candle). But I wouldn't be surprise if it start to revers now. Why? Firstly it has touched strong resistance level that was holding price almost for 6 years. So its a strong level even though it was broken in February 2022. Secondly. If you look at dollar index (green line) which represents strength of a dollar you will see that it's strongly bearish. As you can see from correlation UR and DI has positive correlation (if dollar falls ruble falls also) but with some delays. For example DI started to rise in May 2021 when UR had made big pish up only in November 2021. I still see UR in sell zone. But April will be deciding month for Russian ruble (and most currencies). If price will continue to rise next key levels are 87-89 and 90 rubles per 1 dollar. First target as I have mentioned in my previous analysis is 50 rub/dollar and max target is 30 rubles per dollar. Let see how it'll go. Good luck:)
Short
by margarita_morozova
4
Ascending triangle on the USD/RUB pair. What to expect next?Hello. On the USD/RUB pair, a technical analysis pattern of an ascending triangle is forming. We have two potential scenarios. The first scenario is that if the ascending trend line is broken and the price consolidates below it we can expect further price decline to the Fibonacci level of 0.618 or 66 RUB/USD. On the chart it is noticeable how the support levels correlate with Fibonacci levels. The second scenario is that the price breaks through the resistance zone around 78 RUB/USD and continues to move upward to 86 RUB/USD. This price range is a global resistance level. If you go back on the chart you can see how the asset approached this level back in 2015 and then underwent a correction. This is not financial advice. Everything you do is at your own risk.
by neverovv
USDRUB long-term view and Fibonacci levelsSince 2014, we have had four impulses that have led to the weakening of the Russian ruble. Setting the Fibonacci level shows that the USDRUB pair makes a pullback to 61.8-78.6% of the Fibonacci level after the bullish pulse. We had resistance around the 80,000 level in the previous eight years, which was broken in February this year. The last bullish impulse was to reduce the value of the Russian ruble by 98% (154,100) on March 7 from the value from the beginning of the year 74,000. The current pullback lowered the pair USDRUB to 97,500 in the zone between 61.8-78.6% Fibonacci levels. We should now see consolidation in this zone or a new bullish impulse according to this pattern. If we set up big Fibonacci with a minimum from 2014 and a maximum current in 2022, the potential support zone is between 60,000 and 80,000 levels.
by Aleksin_Aleksandar
#USDRUBEconomic pressure from developed countries was unprecedented. The Russian Federation has become the absolute record holder in terms of the number of sanctions imposed on it, bypassing countries such as North Korea and Iran. In response to the sanctions policy, the ministers limited the capital account, greatly inflated the interest rate and allowed commercial banks to introduce a commission for storing dollars and euros (about 12% per year), without the possibility of withdrawing cash (only in rubles, at the rate of the Central Bank) . Naturally, a cash currency market appeared, the spread of which at the current price is about 10 rubles. The high volatility of the national currency and the withdrawal of Western firms hit imports catastrophically, while exports continued to bring in large foreign exchange earnings due to high energy prices. Thus, we got an artificial strengthening of the ruble, for which we created all the necessary macroeconomic conditions - a huge positive trade balance. The state budget also remained in surplus for a long time. After the onset of 2023, all past "pros" for the ruble were not viable. The Central Bank lowered the key interest rate to 7.5%, the trade balance has ceased to be published since March 2022. Thus, we observe 2 important factors: 1) The state budget deficit, which in January already received 65% of the entire projected deficit for 2023. 2) QE, which was launched by the Central Bank to finance budget gaps through REPO. Of course, the government has a special fund to cover the budget deficit, but its liquid part is 6.5 trillion rubles, while the budget deficit, only in January, amounted to 1.76 trillion. In this case, the government has already begun sequestering the budget, with the exception of military and power items. However, this is not enough in the face of the loss of major sales markets and declining energy prices. Gas prices in Europe fell below $600, and URALS oil fell below $60, although back in November they were $83. Under these conditions, the government is left with few options: 1. Significantly reduce military spending and neutralize the budget deficit. 2. Significantly weaken the ruble to restore lost income. 3. Strengthen the hidden QE program. 4. Spend the entire stabilization fund. I would like the reader to understand that there is a social contract in the Russian Federation - although social security is insignificant, and payments are minimal, they must be carried out impeccably, since violation of this contract entails political risks. All 4 options, with the exception of the 1st, look the most realistic, with a possible combination. Under these conditions, I do not see other scenarios, except for the continuation of the trend for the weakening of the Russian currency. Even in the event of an end to the conflict, a reduction in government spending on military needs and a partial lifting of sanctions, Europe is unlikely to allow the restoration of the former sales markets for Russian energy resources and Europe's trend towards diversifying supplies is unlikely to change, it remains only to look for new ones. However, Russia has already lost part of the most solvent market. Strengthening is possible, but this requires a strong position on the part of the Central Bank, which must again raise the interest rate and hold it for a long time, but in the current macroeconomic conditions this looks unlikely, although such a development cannot be ruled out. Technical picture: After a false breakdown of the main resistance 79.6 - 86.1, the price returned under it and now it acts as the main reference point for market participants. In the same area, the previous price pattern passes, which now acts as a resistance line. Last year, a new price model was formed to reduce the value of the US currency. Also, we have a dollar support level at 51.4 - 48.7. Therefore, I recommend to closely monitor the area of the past resistance level, at the moment the picture tells us, at a minimum, about trading in a range and or a possible further strengthening of the ruble. However, it is the fundamental picture that tells us about reverse.
Long
by VOKCAPITAL
4
BTC resistanceGenesis goes bankrupt and the price soars. The price is coming up to the golden pocket and I think it'll get a pull back around the 23k mark. The measured move off the descending wedge is 30k Short term short, mid term long, long term short... still have "TA hope" that till drop down to that 9.8k to fill the open CME gap. This is caution zone for new entries... some missed the boat. Compare when 3 arrows capitol filed bankruptcy.. short push up and then drop again. Compare this to 2019 when BTC dipped and had the breakout running from 3k up to 14k, then dropped back down to 3k. Major adoption still isn't here just yet. This is the year to accumulate as much as you can before the boom
Short
by krjcrypto