Something really bad is approaching rublecould be a combination of market collapse + oil going into deep correction + sanctions
USDRUB_TOM trade ideas
USDRUB | LONGAll speculators welcome. Correction WXY almost done. USD/RUB USD/MXN USD/ZAR are the most volatile currency pairs
USDRUBThe Central Bank of Russia is buying up a very large amount of rubles from the market, which is why the ruble appreciation is quite strongly connected. The Russian Ministry of Finance will gradually lower its key rate, and now the market is buying up high-yield Russian bonds at an accelerated pace, but it will soon be reduced. On July 1, a referendum on the constitution is planned in Russia. The Russian government, which has rather low popularity, may have had a hand in this, and the strengthening of the ruble for them is a very strong factor in this referendum. The oil market is also likely to be a correction soon.
Long positions look very good. If you look globally, then up to 100. The local trade is indicated on the chart.
USDRUB drop to 70?Friends, hello everyone. Today I want to do a review on a pair of USDRUB. This pair is trading in a double channel and a descending wedge is drawn, which signals a possible fall of the ruble to the level of 70 for 1 dollar. Just as we know, we have bad news on fundamental analysis - money continues to be printed. I associate this strengthening of the ruble with rising oil prices. And who thinks about this?
USDRUBUSDRUB Analysis : price is currently around support zone price 71.4775
we are expecting price to come from where it broke sopport zone price 71.4775
and go down to support zone price 60.8875 this is a descending triangle pattern,
D1 timeframe.
US Dollar / Russian Ruble (Retracement)In case of a serious fall below main uptrend line into high demand zone colored green, the partial accumulation with periodical strategic fractional reserving is the right way of handling the situation.
Eq is around 70
Stable PL of current set is the range (69; 72)
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Short-term update of the whole scheme:
Ruble. Heading to 69USD weakens agains Ruble. A decending triangle was broken to the downside. Now price came back to retest the triangles border. This provides a low risk opportunity for sell. Note the gartley inside the triangle. Comment if you can see it:)
The Russian ruble had a great run last monthThe Russian ruble had a great run last month against the US dollar despite the massive economic hurdles faced by Russia. Bearish investors are hoping that June could be positive for them as well. Looking at last month’s rally, data from the Moscow Stock Exchange shows that the Russian ruble strengthened by more than 6% against the US dollar. The allowed the 50-day moving average to curve and has revived the hopes of bearish investors to force it even lower towards the 200-day moving average. Looking at Russia’s economy, it appears that’s it’s entering a deeper economic slump than expected. However, investors remain hopeful as it’s not as deep as other hard struck countries like Brazil, Spain, and Italy. The Russian gross domestic product is expected to drop by about 5% this 2020 thanks to the pandemic. Experts believe that the pandemic will cut off about 3.3% of Moscow’s growth rate which is already lackluster.
USD-RUBUSD has been in a bear trend against ruble since March, it formed a topping pattern as a descending triangle and started a bear trend. since then it made another defending triangle as a bearish continuation pattern and broke down from it the target of that large triangle is around 68$. its currently completing another small descending triangle with a target around 69$. this chart is a beauty , triangle inception :D.
the next technical support area on this chart is around 67.5$, also there is a gap around 68.5 which matches the target of the triangles.
these technical setups together increase the chance of the price to hit those price targets so this setup can provide good risk to reward high probability trade.
you can manage your risk around 71.5 and go short if we confirm a candle below the small triangle.
After a consolidation the trend will be continuing?A three-wave correction is near its end around the .618 Fibonacci retracement. If the falling red channel middle zone will be a support and it will be broken upward then the rising trend revives and in the next impulse wave, the USDRUB could reach the psychological level at 100. It sounds bad for Rubel, but it is a valid view while the price is above 64.40 -61 zone.
usd/rubthe price is isentering into gold ratio zone and has formed bullish pennant with divergences on macd. long
USDRUB broke a huge triangle 🦐USDRUB broke a huge triangle and now lost a local price structure, according with Plancton's strategy we can set a nice short
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Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis, please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
USD/RUB, targeting 77.174 (big move coming)Backdrop
Rapidly escalating trade war tensions between US and China and concerns on a potential second wave of covid-19 continue to linger. President Putin faces many challenges domestically, and his policies could ultimately impact the direction on the ruble.
Trouble at home
Russia is struggling to contain covid-19 at home and is on track to remain top 3 in the number of confirmed cases. While the death toll of 3,388 is significantly lower than most EU countries, I would take this figure with a grain of salt. In fact, the same view can be applied across all countries as every government classifies the deceased in a different way.
Nevertheless, over the past month, President Putin announced the gradual easing of restrictions, with local governors given the ability to decide on implementations and timelines. This is slightly uncommon given how tight Putin has run his ship, but also a strategic move on his part given that he could shift the blame on local governors should there be a rise in infections. It's noteworthy that President Putin's approval rating is already at its lowest since his inauguration in 1999. Given that Russia is heading towards its most serious recession since 1998, his base of support could decline further in the next several months. Putin's administration can take all the credit if easing plans bode well for the economy.
China - Catch 22
Russia has built strong ties with China over the past decade amid deteriorating relationships with the West. President Putin cannot afford to take the same stance as US President Trump on blaming China's alleged mishandling of covid-19 given China is its biggest strategic partner and hedge against the US and EU.
What can Russia do?
Putin could either divert attention by increasing geopolitical tensions (vis-a-vis Crimea type of move). However, such a bold strategy could do more harm than good. The only way out seems to be shifting focus towards structural and regulatory reforms, and reducing corruption. In fact, there is more incentive to diversify its economy now given the sharp drop in oil prices. However, Putin's administration has yet to deploy massive fiscal support (as seen by other countries). I suspect this will come towards the end of the year; the reluctance may have to do with timing of the referendum (his political plan is to remain as Russia's president potentially until 2036).
Rate cut implications
Last month, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) lowered its rate by 50 bps to 5.50% in line with market expectations, while signaling for more cuts to come to reduce recessionary risks. The pair retreated in response to CBR's dovishness and rate cut. At this stage, I don't see rate cuts as a big deal given every central bank is easing, so long as the CBR's word remains credible. If the latter does not hold, currency interventions may be required to stop RUB depreciation.
Technical analysis
I believe we are in favor of a move higher in the pair as we breakout from a descending triangle pattern. There are plenty of shorter time frame technical analysis on the pair - that's not the ultimate focus here, but rather to take a directional view based on fundamental analysis.
Risks / opportunities
On the contrary, RUB could be one of the most attractive EM plays if Putin's administration can weather the storm and implement comprehensive economic reforms. Currently, I am not of that bullish view, particularly on the backdrop of covid-19, while any heightened tensions between the US and China is a negative for RUB.
As such, targeting near April highs of 77.174 as an initial target with stop loss set (at 69.946) under the support zone of around 72.700.
