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U.S. Dollar / Russian Ruble TOM

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USDRUB_TOM trade ideas

USD/RUB - Regime Change IndicatorRegime Change Indicator The Russian ruble will let us know when the madness might end. The Russian ruble has halved in value over the last four months, accelerating that trend recently, coincident with economic sanctions being imposed by governments and by corporations themselves. At the start of the war, some economists noted that the Russian economy might be able to withstand sanctions given that it has made itself less reliant on foreign capital over the past decade. This is up for debate, but what is not, is the prospect of rampant consumer price inflation and increasing unemployment in Russia. Attention is turning to how long the Putin regime can last before the Russian people rise up against it. Perhaps Elliott waves can give us a clue as to when that might happen. Should the Putin regime be toppled, it will no doubt be subsequent to, or coincident with, an appreciating ruble. The chart of USD-RUB offers a compelling wave count whereby a Fibonacci 13-year advance in USD-RUB (depreciating ruble) is coming to an end. Within this count, Primary degree wave 5 (circled) will equal 1.618 times the length of waves 1 through 3 at 167.32 (a typical turning point when wave 5 is extended). This count also offers an Elliott channel target, connecting waves 2 and 4 and paralleling from wave 3, which comes in around current levels. Thus, there appears to be quite strong evidence that USD-RUB is close to a top (i.e., a low in the ruble). Of course, the ruble can appreciate without the Putin regime being toppled but given the zeitgeist, a lasting low in the ruble (top in USD-RUB) would seem to be probable only with Russia re-entering the global economy, and that would mean Putin no longer being there. If this wave count is correct, therefore, it might be a sign of hope that the madness will end soon.
Short
by ferGOD
13
USDRUB 4 years of slow rising before the next stress eventThe USDRUB pair is consolidating in recent weeks since the short-lived rebound on the June 27 (1W candle) low. The inability to break above either the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) or the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) should keep the price action rather neutral for now. As you see the long-term bullish Channel that started after the July 2008 low, is still holding as the June Low was contained just above its Higher Lows trend-line. After such a Low, the pair tends to start a Channel Up on a slow pace within the respective Fibonacci levels. This is a long-term accumulation phase before a major stress event rapidly sends the RUB depreciating against the USD. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
3
BTC Longs - Ruble BTC chartsTop left BTC longs Bottom left BTC USD chart Top right RUBLE RUBLE USD chart Bottom right RUBLE BTC chart the RUBLE BTC chart is highly correlated with the BTC chart. The liquidations were added as the Ruble price rises and it looks like they were adding margin because it doesent show liquidations, just a run up and flat, run up and flat. I believe they are at a break even point around 32k so that has to be some HEAVY resistance that BTC needs to break through to keep running up to my target of 39k
Long
by krjcrypto
GOLD AND IRON COUNTRIES WILL BUY PAPER CountriesLUXCASH LLC Global Macro Report Bangkok, Thailand: News Update from: Government Treasury Risk Analyst JULIAN MURTAGH-LUX I Date: 7/19/22 Time: 9:07 PM ICT Ticker Updates: WTI: 101.51 USD (-1.07%) Brent: 105.2 USD (-1.04%) Gold: 1,712.48 USD (.20%) Silver: 18.79 USD (.66%) USDJPY: 137.599 (-.52%) EURUSD: 1.02337 (.93%) GBPUSD: 1.20123 (.57%) BTCUSD: 22,151 (3.17%) ETHUSD: 1,538 (4.51%) *I apologize for the short post, I will try to make a 5-10 page report soon with more in depth analysis and wider scans on the markets with technical graphs and currency inflow and outflow measurements. First of all, I would like to take the time to say a prayer for the people of the world suffering from the Government Corruption, Satanism and Child Abuse. My heart is with you all and I pray for your health. We are seeing heat waves across Europe which is causing a psychological uptemp in aggression amongst these nations, we are as a result seeing a risk off tone from the USD and a deployment of capital into other fiats such as AUD, JPY, EUR and GBP. Additionally, BTC and ETH saw decent boosts with heavy booms on MATIC. This is following fundamental news that MATIC is working with DIS (Disney) for NFT’s on their blockchain. As said before, I see MATIC as a high competition factor for ETH with a long term possible overhaul against ETH. We are seeing decent boosts on ETH, but the fraction in the ETH community is quite apparent where the POS vs POW (Proof of Stake vs Work, a mining mechanism to authenticate transactions) become a major argument in the space. Personally, it seems very apparent to me that greedy miners are charging an arm and a leg for a simple ETH move and for this reason I hold 0 ETH and only trade it on leverage. I will admit I dipped my toes in the leverage markets briefly and got half burned and half soothed by the markets. I saw a very high ROI on a simple deposit, but this can compound for better or worse if risk is not properly analyzed. I still keep 97% of deposits in dark pool money wallets and do not even look at if (this is my daughters retirement fund.) On a large scale we see that Ukraine vs Russia is causing a global upheaval of seismic proportions and this is causing a flee to commodities, bonds and FX. I personally believe we saw a dead cat bounce on the Equity sector and there is more pain to come. I see the main turning point occurring in Q4 2022. We are seeing Russia meet with African leaders to export vital food resources such as grain and wheat to make sure the flow of food is consistent. At this point, we are seeing a Russia, China, India, Iran and Brazil pact forming against the West (USA and Europe.) I suspect that cross border payments are actually being done in alternative currencies from the dollar and the rise in the DXY is just an artificial long before we see a de-dollarization of the world. This to me is similar to the 2008 crisis where the LIBOR rate was manipulated by the City Of London Bankers to keep housing mortgages flowing, but as defaults rose, the rate could not be suppressed anymore. As I have said before, I see this default cycle occurring with nations and not households. I am suspecting we will see a Central Bank collapse in many countries and these Gold and Iron backed countries such as Russia and China come up and sweep up the holdings for pennies on the dollar. Additionally, I think a transition to a semi-crypto payment system will be apparent. I think that most central banks and multinational firms are actually using XRP for cross border transactions. It is also interesting to see the bifurcation in the crypto sphere where LTC is being delisted (Bitkub to mention one) due to the Mimble Wimble privacy upgrade which makes LTC compete with the likes of XMR and DASH. Lastly, Mike Saylor mentioned ADA might be a security and Hoskinson responded with a violent retort. I must admit, I take Saylor’s side, not from the definitive standpoint, since we know only the SEC knows what a security is (half-joke), but it is clear, the SEC will not touch BTC and has outright labeled it a Commodity to be ruled by the CFTC. Let us not forget, ETH had an ICO. ICO’s to me scream securities, they are basically like IPO’s. If you are caught funding or promoting unregistered securities, the SEC will hunt you down and hawk you like a bat out of hell, and that is to put it nicely. ADA also had an ICO. If you think of things through the eyes of the public, I am sorry you will never find the full truth. You must look at things through the eyes of a dark pool money hedge fund manager on the top floor of a London or Hong Kong skyscraper. Then you will understand that pump and dumps are the best way for them to move money from low to high states of energy. Last point, it looks like Voyager and Celsisus are filing for bankruptcy and stole all their clients' money. Just to give everyone a heads up, Gemini lends to Genesis who lends to Three Arrows, Three Arrows are who caused the bankruptcy of Celsius and Voyager since they were buying s*** NFT’s and leverage trading beyond reason. KEEP YOUR FUNDS ON COLD WALLETS. PLEASE STAY SAFE AND REMEMBER, MORE THAN HALF OF THESE PEOPLE DO NOT WORSHIP GOD, THEY WORSHIP SATAN AND MONEY, WHICH IS WHY THEY ACT THE WAY THEY DO. Peace and Love, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED: JULIAN MURTAGH-LUX I
Short
by UnknownUnicorn12440439
1
Will the Russian Ruble keep appreciating vs other currencies?The truth is that the most likely answer is yes, the Ruble will keep going higher. Russia is a massive commodities exporter, from oil & gas, to wheat, and therefore there is a constant bid for its currency due to the natural demand for its resources. As Russia is hit by several sanctions, it is very hard for them to buy stuff from outside of Russia, and therefore even less money is flowing out of the country. The government has also imposed capital controls, and it is hard for its citizens to sell their currency for USD, EUR etc. The Central bank also raised rates from 5% in 2021 up to 20% post invasion, and have now dropped rates to 11%. Even though that's still a pretty high number and inflation in Russia is much higher than 11%, however this rate is still much higher than what many countries are offering. A 9% cut in interest rates couldn't even bring the currency down, a major sign of strength. However in my opinion the most important aspect is that Russia has very low debt and could take the hit, while most other countries can't raise rates without breaking everything. They also have significant amounts of Gold, and what remains to be seen is what happens to their FX reserves that have been frozen. If they totally lose these reserves then the currency could suffer, but for now it is possible that they get their reserves back. Forcing 'hostile' countries to pay them in Rubles isn't as important as people think, as they could have accepted payments in Euros for example, and then used that money to buy their own currency. This was mostly a power play and a statement that energy sanctions are futile. Now in terms of TA, the Ruble got insanely oversold after having a huge breakdown (USDRUB breaking out), but when the dust settled, many people who were short were forced to cover as their brokers wouldn't allow them to trade the Ruble. Many accounts were probably blown up due to the whole sanctions, capital controls and so on, that made it very hard for traders to go long or short. As USDRUB started coming down, longs were getting crushed and everyone had to start closing their positions. The market became illiquid and unstable, and mainly damaged those betting against the Ruble. At the moment USDRUB has gotten incredibly oversold, as it broke the S3 Yearly Pivot, as well as the S3 Monthly Pivot, and broke the 2020 Covid low, as well as the 2017-2018 lows. The bounce is mostly driven by technical reasons (taking out stops & being oversold), as well as the 3rd rate cut. However in terms of TA, it looks pretty likely that it is heading for 36$. The whole reversal from 160 all the way down here is still very bearish and an indication that lower prices are coming. The rejection at the diagonal resistance is pretty bearish, and the entire 2013-2015 rally / breakout could be reversed. In the short term the market could trade between 55 & 70, but in the long term it is going to go lower.
Short
by BitcoinMacro
23
USDRUB made 7 year lows but getting close to long-term buy levelThe USDRUB pair hit this week the lowest levels since June 2015, marking a remarkable turnaround for the Ruble (drop on the pair around -65%) since the March 2022 High at the peak of the Russia - Ukraine invasion. With this massive drop, the pair is getting very close to the Higher Lows trend-line that started during the subprime mortgage crisis in the U.S. on July 2008. This chart is on the 1W time-frame (log), with the RSI also approaching its own multi-year Support Zone. With the April - May 2015 Support Zone (made during another period of huge uncertainty in Russian economy) also close around 49.00, it is obvious that the price is near the most significant long-term Support cluster. As a result, our long-term strategy on the pair has turned heavily bullish, targeting at first the Pivot trend-line (71.00) that should act as the first Resistance. The pattern is invalidated if we get a monthly candle closing below the 2008 Higher Lows trend-line. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
2