USDRUB_TOM trade ideas
RUBUSD: - a technical price correctionI made my last Ruble review before February 24th, so there was a downtrend after that. However, the goal was ultimately achieved twice (I circled).
Now I see a significant increase against the backdrop of political manipulation, however, the market is the market and after a strong increase, a correction is always implied.
Target - 0.013600
USDRUB made 7 year lows but getting close to long-term buy levelThe USDRUB pair hit this week the lowest levels since June 2015, marking a remarkable turnaround for the Ruble (drop on the pair around -65%) since the March 2022 High at the peak of the Russia - Ukraine invasion.
With this massive drop, the pair is getting very close to the Higher Lows trend-line that started during the subprime mortgage crisis in the U.S. on July 2008. This chart is on the 1W time-frame (log), with the RSI also approaching its own multi-year Support Zone. With the April - May 2015 Support Zone (made during another period of huge uncertainty in Russian economy) also close around 49.00, it is obvious that the price is near the most significant long-term Support cluster.
As a result, our long-term strategy on the pair has turned heavily bullish, targeting at first the Pivot trend-line (71.00) that should act as the first Resistance. The pattern is invalidated if we get a monthly candle closing below the 2008 Higher Lows trend-line.
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The final countdownImportant to understand two things about the Russian Ruble:
1. There is no physical limit to how high USDRUB will go in wave 5. With exports slashed down and Crude ready to crash back to 10$ we can easily see USDRUB at 200, 300, even 500, why not.
2. The move that's about to happen is the last one in the 14-year long sequence, and it will be fully retraced when the trend changes. A spectacular comeback to below 50, dipping below 39.99 should be expected in the next 2-3 years.
BTC looking at the RUBLE chart1 have 3 chart lines
top is the btc price
middle is the inverted RUBLE/USD chart
bottom is the BTC/RUBLE chart
Everybody is watching the BTC price but don't realize what has happened.
There is usually good opposite correlation between the DXY and BTC. (its like a mirror image) when DXY goes up, BTC goes down and when DXY goes down, a day later the BTC goes up... until a couple months ago. now they are not so related anymore.
When US put sanctions on Russia the price of their dollar the RUBLE dumped hard. since then the price not only recovered but it doubled.. but why
What I found is that since the start of the sanctions, the RUBLE has now been the opposite correlated currency that seems to predict the BTC movements. I think they are controlling the direction
If you see, I have INVERTED the middle chart which is the RUBLE/USD and paired it up with the bottom chart line which is BTC/RUBLE... almost identical.
While BTC has NOT broke that bullish trend to run up for a bull trap yet, the BTC/RUBLE and the RUBLE/USD inverted chart has