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USDSGD trade ideas

USDSGD-May b one more low ? for WXY and "b" of Y may be complex?Market Commentary: LEARNING ELLIOTT WAVES IS LITTLE BIT TOUGH (FOR ME IN BEGINNING) BUT I TOOK IT AS A CHALLENGE AND THAT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE ALSO... First have an look for the positional trend i shared here previous....if you are a follower of me...and sometimes i will share the counter trend trade also in 15 mins and 1hr...but that is risky ones...so if the trend is bearish or bullish, if i am expecting the correction...book the profit there and wait the correction to end and again go with the trend....DONT TRADE THE COUNTER TRADE SETUP...you will took loss too...try to identify the short term pull back and the long term pull back after that took small lots in the short term PB with strict stop and go with big lots in the trend side that is long term. I WONT TOOK ALL THE TRADE PLAN SHARED HERE... Read the market commentary inside the chart what i shared here carefully and try to learn Elliott waves...otherwise its tough to understand the market commentary and my analysis. I wont give a entry, stop loss and take profit in my chart...it is only for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE and i am sharing how i am analyzing the pair and labeling them according to the Elliott wave theory...I AM JUST SHOWING THE TREND HOW IT MAY GO AND MY VIEW(it may wrong too)..so DON'T FOLLOW BLINDLY MY CHART..take this as a reference and if it correlate to you strategy took the trade as per your strategy...DON'T ASK ABOUT YOUR RUNNING TRADES i wont comment on them and I WONT SUGGEST TO TAKE MY TRADE SETUP. I am a technical analyst based on trendline, channel, fib retracements, expansion, stochastic for divergence, EMA's and MA's are finding the pull backs and MAJOR IS ELLIOTT WAVES...those mentioned above are using as a TOOLS only. I am not a fundamental, sentimental trader...but only the fundamental will boost my technical analysis to reach my target or sometimes it will go against me and then i will manage the trade according to the Elliott waves alternate views...Each and every trade plan i am sharing here has a alternate view and i am sharing only the most probabilities(70-80%) here...sometimes the other (20-30%) may market do..then i will change the wave counts and labeling according to the price action. All labeling and wave counts done by me by manually and i will keep change according to the LIVE MARKET PRICE ACTION. So dont bias, hope on my trade plans...try to learn and make your own strategy...Following is not that much easy...I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY LOSSES IF U TOOK THE TRADE ACCORDING TO MY TRADE PLANS....THANKS LOT..CHEERS Dear friends, Don't follow me blindly...what i am sharing here, is my knowledge not signals I am sharing my view through Elliott waves from past 4 yrs....i learned tons and tons here and market taught me lot and still teaching and i am listening to the market...and i am getting a lot of PM's regarding NEGATIVE COMMENTS from my friends...i am sharing here my view for a educational purpose and i am still a learner and i am sharing not my only my view and my experience if u PURELY LISTENNED to my MARKET COMMENTARY... i am not a market mover...just i am keep changing my view according to the PRICE ACTION and i written detailly about that in market commentary...there is no short cut to earn money and cant make a fast cash...if u do that also it may go like that.... My ambition is to create an awareness to the traders, to promote the education not to do BLINDLY...If u look my past 4 yrs chart and now...i fine tuned or refined my strategy...and still looking for finetune...so if u r following my trade plans as a signal its not my fault...If you are not encouraging also not mind but dont discourage...if you are not comment also dont leave the negative comments, if you are not motivate also dont demotivate...because NAGATIVE is more powerful than POSITIVE...i wont care about such comments...because of your comments i wont stop anything in MY PRACTICE...it will take time and to digest such comments for first 2-3 days and again i rebuilt my positive activity and my view and then again i keep start my sharing...i dont need a roadblocks in my journey. If it happen also i need to cross that and i continue...but that crossing time is DELAY for my journey to reach my GOAL...so try to be a friend...just learn or leave .if you didnt like a page in your story book just turn that... Don't look that, Like that dont look my chart...just skip that...thanks lot ...here some quotes by BRUCE LEE... 1. I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but i fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times 2. A GOAL is not always meant to be reached, it often serves simply as something to AIM at 3. Those who are UNAWARE they are walking in darkness will never seek the light 4. To hell with circumstances i create the opportunities 5. I don't teach you anything. I just help you to know yourself 6. Always be yourself, express yourself, have a faith in yourself, do not go out and look for a successful personality and duplicate it. 7. Don't fear failure... in great attempts it is glorious even to fail 8. Absorb what is useful, reject what is useless, add what is specifically your own 9. Notice that stiffest tree is most easily cracked, while the bamboo or willow survives by bending with the wind 10. The successful warrior is the average man with laser-like FOUCS -
by nmkvijay
1
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: No surprise for the CAD to see the biggest net long positioning change once again among the majors after the BOC’s recent hawkish tilt. The recent comments from the BOC about the CAD’s strength are a reason for us to pay attention to current levels in USDCAD. Arguably a lot of the positives for the CAD is already reflected in the price, and the market will want to see more and more positive surprises to justify further moves lower so keep that in mind. For the AUD, the focus in the week ahead will remain on commodities, more specifically Iron Ore. China has become uncomfortable about the rise in commodity prices and is stepping in to try and curb the rise. After solid moves in recent months for Iron Ore some pullback is to be expected, but will be an important negative consideration for the AUD. For the NZD, this week we do have the upcoming RBNZ policy meeting. Going into the meeting, markets are expecting an upgrade to the economic outlook from the bank, but most are of the opinion that it’s too soon for the bank to change policy direction, at least verbally (bond purchases has been slowing recently). If the bank does bring forward rate hike expectations like that of the BOC, which is a slim possibility, that could of course create some upside volatility for the NZD. JPY, CHF & USD: US 10-Year Yields and US Real Yields remain the biggest focus for the USD and the JPY. As the growth and inflation outlook remains positive for the US, the path of least resistance for yields remains titled higher which should keep the JPY lower apart from possible short-term risk off flows of course. For the USD, as we explained last week, the focus isn’t just on nominal bond yields but also on real yields, which has continued to remain very close to cycle lows as nominal yields have moved largely rangebound while inflation expectations have trended higher. Any change in real yields will be a very important consideration for the Dollar, as well as any further comments from FED members regarding tapering deliberations. GBP: The bullish bias for Sterling remains intact. The economic data last week (Jobs, CPI, Retail Sales and PMI’s) once again confirmed the market’s expectations of a faster and better-than-expected economic rebound in the UK. The wild card to track in the week ahead is the virus situation as new cases of the Indian variant has been a concern. PM Johnson has warned that the variant could pose a challenge to their reopening plans. For now, everything seems under control, but this is a development to keep close track of. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few weeks as the Dollar has continued to lose favour and as market participants look towards a fast economic rebound once the vaccination efforts allow the EU to lift lockdown restrictions. If the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials or compare the policy response between the US and UK or compare policy normalization expectations it seems the EU is still lagging behind the US and the UK. For that reason, we are staying patient with our med-term bearish view on the EUR for now and will wait for more information on the vaccine and data front before we change our mind.
by thunderpips
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: No surprise for the CAD to see the biggest net long positioning change among the majors, moving into second place below the EUR. The fundamental outlook for the CAD remains intact after the BOC’s recent hawkish tilt. However, it seems like the BOC has taken notice of the rapid CAD appreciation and have fired a warning shot last week and given the markets an indication that USDCAD is approaching levels that could impact export competitiveness. Even though this doesn’t change the bullish outlook, it does pose a risk in the med-term. For the AUD, the focus in the week ahead will turn to jobs data but also the Iron Ore prices. After a stellar run to the upside, it seems that China has finally stepped in to try and cool down the meteoric rise by banning steelmakers in Tangshan City (14% of China’s steel production) from fabricating or spreading price-hike information. The move worked as Iron Ore prices took a tumble, but it’s worth noting that both Iron Ore and Copper saw some profit taking and overdue mean reversion earlier last week as well. With strong trends like these, seeing some pullback is to be expected, and as such they will be sensitive to potential bigger price reactions on news like this. For now, the med-term bias for the AUD remains intact, but this is something to keep in mind as a substantial correction in Iron Ore is expected to weigh on the Antipodean currency. JPY, CHF & USD: US 10-Year Yields and US Real Yields remain the biggest focus for the USD and the JPY. After the big beat in US CPI, we saw US10Y resume its med-term uptrend, and saw USDJPY push higher as well. As long as US10Y remains firm, we would expect that to put more upside downward pressure on JPY. As for the USD, a key focus point right now is real yields. A move higher in nominal 10-year yields will not be a lot of help for the reflation-battered Dollar if real yields continue to stay suppressed. GBP: The bullish bias for Sterling remains intact. Recent data has made it clear that the economic recovery is well underway, and markets are looking towards this week’s economic data to confirm that view. The wild card to track in the week ahead is the virus situation as new cases of the Indian variant has been a concern. PM Johnson warned on Friday that the variant could pose a challenge to their reopening plans. For now, everything seems under control, but this is a development to keep close track of. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few weeks as the Dollar has continued to lose favour and as market participants look towards a fast economic rebound once the vaccination efforts allow the EU to lift lockdown restrictions. If the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials or compare the policy response between the US and UK or compare policy normalization expectations it seems the EU is still lagging behind the US and the UK. For that reason, we are staying patient with our med-term bearish view on the EUR for now and will wait for more information on the vaccine and data front before we change our mind. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 11 May 2021.
by thunderpips
1
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: A solid week for the CAD in terms of price action means the biggest increase in positioning among the majors should not be a surprise. The BOC’s hawkish tilt has put the CAD in pole position for the bullish currencies among the majors, and as long as policy normalization continues, and the data stays positive and Oil prices remain buoyed that should stay intact. The jobs data was a minor set back for the CAD on Friday, but a miss was largely expected due to the impact of the virus and should not be enough to change the med-term outlook for the BOC or the CAD. In terms of incoming events, the only noticeable one for AUD is the incoming Annual Budget Release, but apart from that main focus for the high betas should be overall risk appetite. JPY, CHF & USD: What a move in the Dollar after Friday’s NFP! Not surprising though as the med-term bias remains titled to the downside for the greenback as long as the Reflation and Global Synchronized Recovery driver stays intact. The more interesting development was the downside in the Dollar despite a solid push higher in US10Y. It’s important though to remember that even though yield differentials are important drivers for currencies they are not the only drivers. For the past couple of months, the correlation to real yields (nominal yields – inflation expectations) is another important driver alongside that of Eurodollar futures. On Friday, Eurodollar futures shot up and Real Yields shot down after the NFP jobs report, all in all a strong bearish cocktail for the Dollar despite US10Y moving up. This week the attention turns to CPI on Wednesday as well as Retail Sales on Friday. In terms of the CPI event, it will be important to keep the Real Yield dynamics for the Dollar in mind, as a strong CPI print might not necessarily translate into Dollar strength if inflation expectations outpace US10Y and pushes real yields lower. GBP: The move we’ve seen lower in CFTC positioning for the GBP is mostly as a result of the downside price action we saw at the end of last week which was most probably due to some de-risking going into this past week’s BOE and elections. The fundamental bias remains unchanged and tilted to the upside for Sterling. Even though the BOE did move along with tapering, it was framed as a technical adjustment, but the bank did provide a more upbeat outlook for the economy and the recovery. With the proximity risks out of the way we would anticipate the week ahead to see a continuation of the upward trajectory barring of course any negative surprises. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few weeks as the Dollar has continued to lose favour. For now, it seems that a lot of participants are still banking on a potential or eventual EU recovery story from H2 as the vaccination roll out gain positive momentum. If the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials or compare the policy response between the US and UK or compare policy normalization expectations it seems the EU is still lagging behind the US and the UK, which is why we are staying patient with our view on the EUR for now and waiting for more information on the vaccine and data front before we change our mind. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 4 May 2021.
by thunderpips
USDSGD-V r in wave ii) of wave a) to the TP 1.3560 SL 1.3223Dear friends, Don't follow me blindly...what i am sharing here, is my knowledge not signals I am sharing my view through Elliott waves from past 4 yrs....i learned tons and tons here and market taught me lot and still teaching and i am listening to the market...and i am getting a lot of PM's regarding NEGATIVE COMMENTS from my friends...i am sharing here my view for a educational purpose and i am still a learner and i am sharing not my only my view and my experience if u PURELY LISTENNED to my MARKET COMMENTARY... i am not a market mover...just i am keep changing my view according to the PRICE ACTION and i written detailly about that in market commentary...there is no short cut to earn money and cant make a fast cash...if u do that also it may go like that.... My ambition is to create an awareness to the traders, to promote the education not to do BLINDLY...If u look my past 4 yrs chart and now...i fine tuned or refined my strategy...and still looking for finetune...so if u r following my trade plans as a signal its not my fault...If you are not encouraging also not mind but dont discourage...if you are not comment also dont leave the negative comments, if you are not motivate also dont demotivate...because NAGATIVE is more powerful than POSITIVE...i wont care about such comments...because of your comments i wont stop anything in MY PRACTICE...it will take time and to digest such comments for first 2-3 days and again i rebuilt my positive activity and my view and then again i keep start my sharing...i dont need a roadblocks in my journey. If it happen also i need to cross that and i continue...but that crossing time is DELAY for my journey to reach my GOAL...so try to be a friend...just learn or leave .if you didnt like a page in your story book just turn that... Don't look that, Like that dont look my chart...just skip that...thanks lot ...here some quotes by BRUCE LEE... 1. I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but i fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times " 2. A GOAL is not always meant to be reached, it often serves simply as something to AIM at 3. Those who are UNAWARE they are walking in darkness will never seek the light 4. To hell with circumstances i create the opportunities 5. I don't teach you anything. I just help you to know yourself 6. Always be yourself, express yourself, have a faith in yourself, do not go out and look for a successful personality and duplicate it. 7. Don't fear failure... in great attempts it is glorious even to fail 8. Absorb what is useful, reject what is useless, add what is specifically your own 9. Notice that stiffest tree is most easily cracked, while the bamboo or willow survives by bending with the wind 10. The successful warrior is the average man with laser-like FOUCS - Market Commentary: LEARNING ELLIOTT WAVES IS LITTLE BIT TOUGH (FOR ME IN BEGINNING) BUT I TOOK IT AS A CHALLENGE AND THAT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE ALSO... First have an look for the positional trend i shared here previous....if you are a follower of me...and sometimes i will share the counter trend trade also in 15 mins and 1hr...but that is risky ones...so if the trend is bearish or bullish, if i am expecting the correction...book the profit there and wait the correction to end and again go with the trend....DONT TRADE THE COUNTER TRADE SETUP...you will took loss too...try to identify the short term pull back and the long term pull back after that took small lots in the short term PB with strict stop and go with big lots in the trend side that is long term. I WONT TOOK ALL THE TRADE PLAN SHARED HERE... Read the market commentary inside the chart what i shared here carefully and try to learn Elliott waves...otherwise its tough to understand the market commentary and my analysis. I wont give a entry, stop loss and take profit in my chart...it is only for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE and i am sharing how i am analyzing the pair and labeling them according to the Elliott wave theory...I AM JUST SHOWING THE TREND HOW IT MAY GO AND MY VIEW(it may wrong too)..so DON'T FOLLOW BLINDLY MY CHART..take this as a reference and if it correlate to you strategy took the trade as per your strategy...DON'T ASK ABOUT YOUR RUNNING TRADES i wont comment on them and I WONT SUGGEST TO TAKE MY TRADE SETUP. I am a technical analyst based on trendline, channel, fib retracements, expansion, stochastic for divergence, EMA's and MA's are finding the pull backs and MAJOR IS ELLIOTT WAVES...those mentioned above are using as a TOOLS only. I am not a fundamental, sentimental trader...but only the fundamental will boost my technical analysis to reach my target or sometimes it will go against me and then i will manage the trade according to the Elliott waves alternate views...Each and every trade plan i am sharing here has a alternate view and i am sharing only the most probabilities(70-80%) here...sometimes the other (20-30%) may market do..then i will change the wave counts and labeling according to the price action. All labeling and wave counts done by me by manually and i will keep change according to the LIVE MARKET PRICE ACTION. So dont bias, hope on my trade plans...try to learn and make your own strategy...Following is not that much easy...I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY LOSSES IF U TOOK THE TRADE ACCORDING TO MY TRADE PLANS....THANKS LOT..CHEERS
by nmkvijay
$XSGD STABLE COIN - $ZIL ZRC-2 contractany smart people in the room? Q: if you are holding the Singapore Dollar via stable token $XSGD are you holding an asset that has outperformed the dollar since 1980? A: ? love to know if anyone is using the Xfers wallet and the experience. so far just 4900 active addresses, but this seems like a no brainer for people living in Singapore or ExPAts, etc... I would think stable coins would be easier to travel with and no exchange rate fees involved
Long
by GJMRealEstate
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: The latest CFTC data for the CAD was surprisingly low with the most recent update, especially after the data included the price action following the BOC’s hawkish tilt. However, what was not reflected in the data has been made up in good measure in the price action we saw this past week as the CAD’s fundamental realities kicked into high gear and pushed CAD higher. For the AUD and NZD, the week does hold some risk events to take note of such as quarterly Employment data for New Zealand as well as a press conference with Governor Orr after the release of the financial stability report. For the AUD, we also have the RBA meeting coming up on Tuesday where market participants are not expecting anything new from the bank. Furthermore, the increased volatility in equities over the past few days means that we do of course want to be mindful of any fluctuations in risk tones as they remain a key external driver for all three the high beta majors. JPY, CHF & USD: What to make of the Dollar on Friday? Firstly, technically speaking the currency was looking a bit stretched to the downside after having almost three straight weeks of selling. Secondly, the recovery in US 10-Year bond yields provided a welcome reprieve for the greenback. Thirdly, the more hawkish comments from FED’s Kaplan on Friday also spurred some upside for the Dollar by talks of tapering discussions and rates lifting off in 2022, but keep in mind that Kaplan is considered as a hawk so even though these comments are positive, they are not as positive when compared to coming from someone like Powell or Clarida for example. After a pretty impressive run higher for the JPY, the move higher in US 10-Year bond yields once again showed the strong inverse correlation between the two assets with the JPY pushing lower this week despite some risk off flows seen in equities (which is usually expected to be positive for safe havens). In the week ahead, focus for both the USD and JPY will remain firmly fixed on bond yields as well as the overall risk sentiment in the market. GBP: GBPUSD took quite the tumble on Friday as the Dollar gained some momentum, and also suffered against other major counterparts as well. The fundamental bullish outlook remains intact, and this week attention will turn to the BOE policy decision coming up on Thursday, as well as the UK’s local elections and Scottish Parliamentary elections. Between the elections and the BOE, the more important event will arguably be the BOE where there is a growing number of participants calling for a potential tapering announcement by the bank this week, but there is a few caveats to this which is important to keep in mind. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few weeks as the Dollar has continued to lose favour. Friday did of course see some overdue correction playing out for the USD which saw a sizeable push lower in the majors across the board. As the fundamental outlook remains unchanged in our view, the Dollar’s movements will be very important for the single currency this week. For now, it seems that a lot of participants are still banking on a potential or eventual EU recovery story from H2 as the vaccination roll out gain positive momentum. If the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials or compared that from a monetary policy normalization point of view, it will still be far behind that of the US and the UK, which is why we are staying patient with our view on the EUR for now, waiting for more information before we change our mind. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 27 April 2021.
by thunderpips
💡Don't miss the great buy opportunity in USDSGD Trading suggestion: ". There is a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support line (1.3246). . if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets." Technical analysis: . USDSGD is in a range bound and the beginning of uptrend is expected. . The price is above the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic support. . The RSI is at 53. Take Profits: TP1= @ 1.3276 TP2= @ 1.3307 TP3= @ 1.3330 TP4= @ 1.3350 TP5= @ 1.3377 SL= Break below S2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated!❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader? Now, It's your turn! Be sure to leave a comment let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Long
by ForecastCity
4
💡Don't miss the great buy opportunity in USDSGD Trading suggestion: ". There is a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support line (1.3246). . if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets." Technical analysis: . USDSGD is in a range bound and the beginning of uptrend is expected. . The price is above the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic support. . The RSI is at 56. Take Profits: TP1= @ 1.3276 TP2= @ 1.3307 TP3= @ 1.3330 TP4= @ 1.3350 TP5= @ 1.3377 SL= Break below S2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated!❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader? Now, It's your turn! Be sure to leave a comment let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Long
by ForecastCity_World
11
USDSGD Potential Price to level 1.319xxShort Term Short Position, Potential price to level 1.319xx with 3 path posibilities (tend around between white path and light blue path), Note : - Spot path follow gan fan line, horizontal range only for illustration - 3 ema can be function as dynamic support Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes and is not an investment recommendation or representative of professional expertise. This analysis used herein is for illustration purposes only. This personal opinion should not be considered specific investment advice. I am not responsible for any trades, and individuals are solely responsible for any live trades placed in their own personal accounts.
Short
by CRJP
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: The biggest mover among the three high beta majors was the CAD which showed a fairly big increase in net long positioning of +10K. What is even more interesting about this is that it occurred before the BOC meeting on Wednesday, which means this Friday’s data should show yet another big increase in positioning after the hawkish tilt from the BOC. In terms of the AUD, positioning is back in negative territory after a -5K position change, fairly large and most likely due to the exacerbated downside we saw the AUD two weeks ago with the risk off flush in risk assets which hit the AUD much harder than it’s high beta counterparts. This week will be fairly light on the data front for the CAD and NZD with CPI data in focus for the AUD. We would expect the CAD’s upward momentum to continue after the BOC’s meeting but as always external factors such as risk sentiment and oil will be important considerations. JPY, CHF & USD: US 10-year bond yields remains one of the key drivers for the USDJPY and a key asset to watch for the next direction of the pair. With the overall global risk outlook as well as the med-term bias for US10Y still tilted higher, we still expect USDJPY to drift higher and would keep a close eye on the price action for additional upside opportunities. As for the Dollar, not much has changed. The med-term bias remains titled to the downside, and the move lower in US10Y has certainly also helped to push the greenback lower. This week we do have the upcoming FOMC meeting as well as Q1 GDP. Even though markets are not expecting a lot from the FOMC there are a few caveats that could create some volatility in the Dollar. GBP: Sterling finally started to show more signs of life this past week, but once again did not manage to take advantage of that strength versus the EUR. The market’s continued expectations for a recovery narrative in the EU has continued to keep the EUR supported, alongside a continued push lower in the USD. The fundamental outlook for the GBP remains unchanged, and with some of the upside positioning being unwound, we would expect the GBP to resume its med-term upside momentum. However, it does seem like markets might be waiting for a catalyst in the short-term to do so. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few sessions as the Dollar has continued to lose favour. The one positive though, and one of which a lot of participants are banking on right now, is that the vaccination roll out is gaining some positive momentum, and if the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could see a faster recovery in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials, or compared that from a monetary policy normalization point of view, it will still be far behind that of the US and the UK, which is why we are staying patient with our view on the EUR for now, waiting for more information before we change our mind. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 20 April 2021.
by thunderpips
4