USDSGD trade ideas
USDSGD-V r in wave ii) of wave a) to the TP 1.3560 SL 1.3223Dear friends,
Don't follow me blindly...what i am sharing here, is my knowledge not signals
I am sharing my view through Elliott waves from past 4 yrs....i learned tons and tons here and market taught me lot and still teaching and i am listening to the market...and i am getting a lot of PM's regarding NEGATIVE COMMENTS from my friends...i am sharing here my view for a educational purpose and i am still a learner and i am sharing not my only my view and my experience if u PURELY LISTENNED to my MARKET COMMENTARY... i am not a market mover...just i am keep changing my view according to the PRICE ACTION and i written detailly about that in market commentary...there is no short cut to earn money and cant make a fast cash...if u do that also it may go like that....
My ambition is to create an awareness to the traders, to promote the education not to do BLINDLY...If u look my past 4 yrs chart and now...i fine tuned or refined my strategy...and still looking for finetune...so if u r following my trade plans as a signal its not my fault...If you are not encouraging also not mind but dont discourage...if you are not comment also dont leave the negative comments, if you are not motivate also dont demotivate...because NAGATIVE is more powerful than POSITIVE...i wont care about such comments...because of your comments i wont stop anything in MY PRACTICE...it will take time and to digest such comments for first 2-3 days and again i rebuilt my positive activity and my view and then again i keep start my sharing...i dont need a roadblocks in my journey. If it happen also i need to cross that and i continue...but that crossing time is DELAY for my journey to reach my GOAL...so try to be a friend...just learn or leave .if you didnt like a page in your story book just turn that... Don't look that, Like that dont look my chart...just skip that...thanks lot ...here some quotes by BRUCE LEE...
1. I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but i fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times "
2. A GOAL is not always meant to be reached, it often serves simply as something to AIM at
3. Those who are UNAWARE they are walking in darkness will never seek the light
4. To hell with circumstances i create the opportunities
5. I don't teach you anything. I just help you to know yourself
6. Always be yourself, express yourself, have a faith in yourself, do not go out and look for a successful personality and duplicate it.
7. Don't fear failure... in great attempts it is glorious even to fail
8. Absorb what is useful, reject what is useless, add what is specifically your own
9. Notice that stiffest tree is most easily cracked, while the bamboo or willow survives by bending with the wind
10. The successful warrior is the average man with laser-like FOUCS -
Market Commentary:
LEARNING ELLIOTT WAVES IS LITTLE BIT TOUGH (FOR ME IN BEGINNING) BUT I TOOK IT AS A CHALLENGE AND THAT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE ALSO...
First have an look for the positional trend i shared here previous....if you are a follower of me...and sometimes i will share the counter trend trade also in 15 mins and 1hr...but that is risky ones...so if the trend is bearish or bullish, if i am expecting the correction...book the profit there and wait the correction to end and again go with the trend....DONT TRADE THE COUNTER TRADE SETUP...you will took loss too...try to identify the short term pull back and the long term pull back after that took small lots in the short term PB with strict stop and go with big lots in the trend side that is long term. I WONT TOOK ALL THE TRADE PLAN SHARED HERE...
Read the market commentary inside the chart what i shared here carefully and try to learn Elliott waves...otherwise its tough to understand the market commentary and my analysis. I wont give a entry, stop loss and take profit in my chart...it is only for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE and i am sharing how i am analyzing the pair and labeling them according to the Elliott wave theory...I AM JUST SHOWING THE TREND HOW IT MAY GO AND MY VIEW(it may wrong too)..so DON'T FOLLOW BLINDLY MY CHART..take this as a reference and if it correlate to you strategy took the trade as per your strategy...DON'T ASK ABOUT YOUR RUNNING TRADES i wont comment on them and I WONT SUGGEST TO TAKE MY TRADE SETUP.
I am a technical analyst based on trendline, channel, fib retracements, expansion, stochastic for divergence, EMA's and MA's are finding the pull backs and MAJOR IS ELLIOTT WAVES...those mentioned above are using as a TOOLS only. I am not a fundamental, sentimental trader...but only the fundamental will boost my technical analysis to reach my target or sometimes it will go against me and then i will manage the trade according to the Elliott waves alternate views...Each and every trade plan i am sharing here has a alternate view and i am sharing only the most probabilities(70-80%) here...sometimes the other (20-30%) may market do..then i will change the wave counts and labeling according to the price action.
All labeling and wave counts done by me by manually and i will keep change according to the LIVE MARKET PRICE ACTION. So dont bias, hope on my trade plans...try to learn and make your own strategy...Following is not that much easy...I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY LOSSES IF U TOOK THE TRADE ACCORDING TO MY TRADE PLANS....THANKS LOT..CHEERS
$XSGD STABLE COIN - $ZIL ZRC-2 contractany smart people in the room?
Q: if you are holding the Singapore Dollar via stable token $XSGD are you holding an asset that has outperformed the dollar since 1980?
A: ?
love to know if anyone is using the Xfers wallet and the experience. so far just 4900 active addresses, but this seems like a no brainer for people living in Singapore or ExPAts, etc...
I would think stable coins would be easier to travel with and no exchange rate fees involved
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD:
The latest CFTC data for the CAD was surprisingly low with the most recent update, especially after the data included the price action following the BOC’s hawkish tilt. However, what was not reflected in the data has been made up in good measure in the price action we saw this past week as the CAD’s fundamental realities kicked into high gear and pushed CAD higher.
For the AUD and NZD, the week does hold some risk events to take note of such as quarterly Employment data for New Zealand as well as a press conference with Governor Orr after the release of the financial stability report. For the AUD, we also have the RBA meeting coming up on Tuesday where market participants are not expecting anything new from the bank.
Furthermore, the increased volatility in equities over the past few days means that we do of course want to be mindful of any fluctuations in risk tones as they remain a key external driver for all three the high beta majors.
JPY, CHF & USD:
What to make of the Dollar on Friday? Firstly, technically speaking the currency was looking a bit stretched to the downside after having almost three straight weeks of selling.
Secondly, the recovery in US 10-Year bond yields provided a welcome reprieve for the greenback. Thirdly, the more hawkish comments from FED’s Kaplan on Friday also spurred some upside for the Dollar by talks of tapering discussions and rates lifting off in 2022, but keep in mind that Kaplan is considered as a hawk so even though these comments are positive, they are not as positive when compared to coming from someone like Powell or Clarida for example.
After a pretty impressive run higher for the JPY, the move higher in US 10-Year bond yields once again showed the strong inverse correlation between the two assets with the JPY pushing lower this week despite some risk off flows seen in equities (which is usually expected to be positive for safe havens).
In the week ahead, focus for both the USD and JPY will remain firmly fixed on bond yields as well as the overall risk sentiment in the market.
GBP:
GBPUSD took quite the tumble on Friday as the Dollar gained some momentum, and also suffered against other major counterparts as well. The fundamental bullish outlook remains intact, and this week attention will turn to the BOE policy decision coming up on Thursday, as well as the UK’s local elections and Scottish Parliamentary elections.
Between the elections and the BOE, the more important event will arguably be the BOE where there is a growing number of participants calling for a potential tapering announcement by the bank this week, but there is a few caveats to this which is important to keep in mind.
EUR:
Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few weeks as the Dollar has continued to lose favour.
Friday did of course see some overdue correction playing out for the USD which saw a sizeable push lower in the majors across the board. As the fundamental outlook remains unchanged in our view, the Dollar’s movements will be very important for the single currency this week.
For now, it seems that a lot of participants are still banking on a potential or eventual EU recovery story from H2 as the vaccination roll out gain positive momentum. If the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU.
However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials or compared that from a monetary policy normalization point of view, it will still be far behind that of the US and the UK, which is why we are staying patient with our view on the EUR for now, waiting for more information before we change our mind.
*This report reflects the COT data updated until 27 April 2021.
💡Don't miss the great buy opportunity in USDSGD
Trading suggestion:
". There is a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support line (1.3246).
. if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets."
Technical analysis:
. USDSGD is in a range bound and the beginning of uptrend is expected.
. The price is above the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic support.
. The RSI is at 53.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 1.3276
TP2= @ 1.3307
TP3= @ 1.3330
TP4= @ 1.3350
TP5= @ 1.3377
SL= Break below S2
❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView
. . . . . Please show your support back,
. . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button,
. . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment!
❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated!❤️
💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader?
Now, It's your turn!
Be sure to leave a comment let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast.
Trade well, ❤️
ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
💡Don't miss the great buy opportunity in USDSGD
Trading suggestion:
". There is a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support line (1.3246).
. if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets."
Technical analysis:
. USDSGD is in a range bound and the beginning of uptrend is expected.
. The price is above the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic support.
. The RSI is at 56.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 1.3276
TP2= @ 1.3307
TP3= @ 1.3330
TP4= @ 1.3350
TP5= @ 1.3377
SL= Break below S2
❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView
. . . . . Please show your support back,
. . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button,
. . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment!
❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated!❤️
💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader?
Now, It's your turn!
Be sure to leave a comment let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast.
Trade well, ❤️
ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
USDSGD Potential Price to level 1.319xxShort Term Short Position, Potential price to level 1.319xx with 3 path posibilities (tend around between white path and light blue path),
Note :
- Spot path follow gan fan line, horizontal range only for illustration
- 3 ema can be function as dynamic support
Disclaimer:
This information is for educational purposes and is not an investment recommendation or representative of professional expertise. This analysis used herein is for illustration purposes only. This personal opinion should not be considered specific investment advice. I am not responsible for any trades, and individuals are solely responsible for any live trades placed in their own personal accounts.
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD:
The biggest mover among the three high beta majors was the CAD which showed a fairly big increase in net long positioning of +10K. What is even more interesting about this is that it occurred before the BOC meeting on Wednesday, which means this Friday’s data should show yet another big increase in positioning after the hawkish tilt from the BOC.
In terms of the AUD, positioning is back in negative territory after a -5K position change, fairly large and most likely due to the exacerbated downside we saw the AUD two weeks ago with the risk off flush in risk assets which hit the AUD much harder than it’s high beta counterparts.
This week will be fairly light on the data front for the CAD and NZD with CPI data in focus for the AUD. We would expect the CAD’s upward momentum to continue after the BOC’s meeting but as always external factors such as risk sentiment and oil will be important considerations.
JPY, CHF & USD:
US 10-year bond yields remains one of the key drivers for the USDJPY and a key asset to watch for the next direction of the pair. With the overall global risk outlook as well as the med-term bias for US10Y still tilted higher, we still expect USDJPY to drift higher and would keep a close eye on the price action for additional upside opportunities.
As for the Dollar, not much has changed. The med-term bias remains titled to the downside, and the move lower in US10Y has certainly also helped to push the greenback lower. This week we do have the upcoming FOMC meeting as well as Q1 GDP.
Even though markets are not expecting a lot from the FOMC there are a few caveats that could create some volatility in the Dollar.
GBP:
Sterling finally started to show more signs of life this past week, but once again did not manage to take advantage of that strength versus the EUR. The market’s continued expectations for a recovery narrative in the EU has continued to keep the EUR supported, alongside a continued push lower in the USD.
The fundamental outlook for the GBP remains unchanged, and with some of the upside positioning being unwound, we would expect the GBP to resume its med-term upside momentum. However, it does seem like markets might be waiting for a catalyst in the short-term to do so.
EUR:
Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few sessions as the Dollar has continued to lose favour.
The one positive though, and one of which a lot of participants are banking on right now, is that the vaccination roll out is gaining some positive momentum, and if the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could see a faster recovery in the EU.
However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials, or compared that from a monetary policy normalization point of view, it will still be far behind that of the US and the UK, which is why we are staying patient with our view on the EUR for now, waiting for more information before we change our mind.
*This report reflects the COT data updated until 20 April 2021.
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD:
Positioning data for the AUD, NZD and CAD updated until the 13th of April still shows more room to run to the upside for the three high beta commodity-sensitive FX majors, even after the recent push higher in the likes of the NZD and AUD.
For this week the majority of the attention will turn towards the Canadian Dollar where we will have the BOC's policy and rate decision. Just two weeks ago the expectations that the BOC will look to start tapering their QE program was set in stone, but recent rising virus cases and lockdown restrictions has seen some participants push back these expectations.
Apart from that, the past few sessions the overall global risk outlook has been the main external driver for the AUD & NZD and without any major surprises we would expect the two antipodeans to be largely driven by the risk outlook.
JPY & CHF & USD:
With the US10Y pressured in the past week the JPY was quite resilient among major currencies despite overall positive risk tones. As yields find some equilibrium it will be interesting to see whether the JPY takes its cue more from risk sentiment in the weeks ahead as the strong inverse correlation between US10Y & JPY has been moving lower recently.
The USD once again saw downside despite further solid econ data and largely followed US10Y's path lower. However, it was quite noticeable that the Dollar didn't fall further on Thursday despite US10Y pushing lower with quite some pace.
Friday did see US10Y finding some reprieve alongside the USD. Even though the Dollar's med-term bias remains titled to the downside, we should keep in mind that yields have not been the only driver for the Dollar over the past few weeks as the overall reflation narrative remains a big focus as well.
As the USD's slide coincides with lots of exuberance in equities and VIX treading water on key support, we do need to keep a close eye on overall risk sentiment for some potential mean reversion at some stage, and if equities do have some short-term deleveraging it could see some USD safe haven flows.
GBP:
The two favourites among the FX majors from a fundamental outlook point of view has been the CAD and the GBP, and it's both of them that has been the weakest among the majors over the past two weeks.
Whenever we see price action like this we need to ask ourselves whether anything has changed that could jeopardize the fundamental outlook, and despite some initial concerns about the AstraZeneca vaccine, the main drivers for expecting further upside in the Pound is still intact.
However, we also don't want to catch falling knives. In the coming sessions, either waiting for price action to confirm the bullish trend is back in focus or waiting for a positive catalyst to driver the Pound higher seems like the best course of action in the short-term.
EUR:
The upside in the EUR this past two weeks has gone against the overall downside bias for the single currency which has been based on the EU's slower vaccine roll out; rise in virus cases; new lockdown restrictions; growth differentials; monetary policy expectations; and fiscal stimulus.
Some have argued that the big unwind in net long positioning over the past few weeks have seen the EUR reach an equilibrium as most of the negatives mentioned above should already be reflected in the price at this point. ING has also noted that there is a possibility that "traders wanting to jump in early on the EUR recovery story – more signs of which should emerge through the quarter as, for example, vaccination programs gain pace in the likes of France and Germany".
However, in our view it's far too early to be buying the EUR en masse in the hopes of an eventual catch up in vaccines and growth, especially on the growth side with the recovery fund yet to be ratified and large parts of the EU still under lockdowns while the UK and US is opening up.
But, as we noted last week, the sensitivity of the EUR to the Dollar also explains some of the upside in the EUR, and remains a key factor to watch in the week ahead.
*This report reflects the COT data updated until 13 April 2021.
Might see some bounce upwards...then heading down again...
If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏
And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁
Thank you!
Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared.
Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
USDSGDHello Trader, Here is the market analysis for this pair, Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, The entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied.
COT CURRENCY REPORTOverall:
With the CFTC data updated until 6 April the AUD showed the biggest decrease of (-8K) and the JPY showing the biggest increase of (+1K).
AUD, NZD & CAD:
Positioning data for the AUD, NZD and CAD updated until the 6th of April still shows more room to run to the upside for the three high beta commodity-sensitive FX majors, especially after the recent push lower in the likes of the NZD and AUD.
This week's upcoming RBNZ meeting is expected to largely be a non-event and should not have much to change the med-term outlook for the bank or the NZD. Some meaningful data to watch in the week ahead will be Aussie Jobs data as well as important Chinese growth data for the AUD.
As for the CAD, Friday's stellar jobs report should have solidified the market's expectations that the BOC will move forward with tapering QE at the April meeting, and should provide upside momentum for the currency running into the policy meeting.
JPY & CHF & USD:
The JPY saw a modest come back in positioning, which was to be expected as the currency saw a 96K positioning change going from a +29K net long to a -59K net short position in 6 short weeks. That registered as more than a 4 standard deviation move two weeks ago, and is still showing a -3.3 z-score on a 1-year look back with Friday's CFTC update.
The big driver for the JPY remains the US10Y, which means this week's upcoming US bond auctions (10- year and 30-year), as well as incoming CPI data will be very important for the US10Y and thus the JPY.
With yield differentials one of the key drivers* of the Dollar in recent weeks, the incoming US data points will be the main focus point for the greenback in the week ahead, alongside overall risk appetite as the better than expected US data and a sizable unwind of the Dollar's oversubscribed short bets have arguably turned the attention for the Dollar back to the med-term bias.
GBP:
The past few trading sessions have not been kind to the GBP, as short-term concerns about the Astrazeneca vaccine has weighed on the Pound. However, arguably the biggest driver for Sterling has been cross flows as EURGBP saw a sizable squeeze in the extended bearish trend.
Even though the bias for EURGBP remains titled lower in the med-term, any extended trend is always susceptible to violent squeeze when reaching key areas of support or resistance.
The challenge with a squeeze is that we don't know how long it will last, and with moves like these it's best to either wait for a new fresh bearish catalyst to use as a trigger for new shorting opportunities, or to wait for the pair to break back below key technicals levels with some follow through.
EUR:
The upside in the EUR this past week has gone against the overall downside bias for the single currency which has been based on the EU's slower vaccine roll out; rise in virus cases; new lockdown restrictions; growth differentials; monetary policy expectations; and fiscal stimulus.
Some have argued that the big unwind in net long positioning over the past few weeks have seen the EUR reach an equilibrium as most of the negatives mentioned above should already be reflected in the price at this point. ING has also noted that there is a possibility that "traders wanting to jump in early on the EUR recovery story – more signs of which should emerge through the quarter as, for example, vaccination programs gain pace in the likes of France and Germany".
However, in our view it's far too early to be buying the EUR en masse in the hopes of an eventual catch up in vaccines and growth, especially on the growth side with the recovery fund yet to be ratified and large parts of the EU still under lockdowns while the UK and US is opening up.
But, as we noted last week, the sensitivity of the EUR to the Dollar also explains some of the upside in the EUR, and remains a key factor to watch in the week ahead.
*This report reflects the COT data updated until 6 April 2021.
Week Ahead: COT Currency ReportOverall:
With the CFTC data updated until 30 March the EUR showed the biggest decrease of (-19.5K) and the AUD showing the biggest increase of (+6K).
AUD, NZD & CAD:
Positioning still favours further upside for the three high beta FX majors. The strong push higher in global equities last week is another positive catalyst to keep in mind in the week ahead.
Even though we maintain an upside bias for the AUD, NZD and CAD, but given the BOC's recent action to discontinue some of their market functioning programs and the complete reversal of NZ10Y after it's recent push lower we would prefer the NZD and CAD above the AUD as we also
have the RBA this week which could influence the AUD.
The med-term bias for all three remains titled higher.
JPY & CHF & USD:
The big deviation in positioning we mentioned in last week's report saw some mean reversion in the JPY albeit it only minor moves. With risk appetite taking a more positive turn at the latter part of last week, and with the solid economic data points from the US, the risk on added additional pressure on the JPY, but positioning still has some possible room left to unwind which is a risk to our medterm downside bias.
The Dollar's price action at the latter part of last week was very important. Despite the best ISM Mfg PMI since 1984 and despite a solid NFP print which came in much higher than expectations, the Dollar failed to sustain any meaningful upside, and instead continued it's overdue mean reversion to the downside.
This might be the first signal that the positioning-related squeeze might be fizzling out and could potentially be the market turning it's attention back to the reflation narrative as we head into the highly anticipated Q2 of 2021.
GBP:
The bias for Sterling remains firmly titled to the upside, we maintain an upside bias in GBPUSD, especially with the Dollar's soft price
action following last week's solid data points.
The calendar will be very light for Sterling, so the overall focus will arguably fall predominantly on price action in the EUR and the USD.
EUR:
The reasons to expect downside for the EUR has been on the rise recently. Whether we consider the vaccine roll out, or recent virus numbers, or lockdown restrictions, or relative growth dynamics, or policy normalization expectations, all the above point to further downside for the EUR versus the USD and GBP, as well as the high betas.
Despite shedding a lot of net long positioning in the past two months, the EUR remains the largest net long position among the majors, which means there is quite a bit of room to run to the downside if the above concerns continue to pressure the single currency.
However, the one caveat to the EUR is it's sensitivity to the Dollar. With the Dollar pushing lower we've seen the EUR breathe a sigh of relief, and as long as the Dollar remains pressured we could see the EUR gaining some upside momentum.
This report reflects the COT data updated until 30 Mar 2021.
Bullish PotentialPrice above baselines
Baseline signals long
Indicators signals long
MA within volatility range
