USDT.D Incoming bearish reversal and a bullish market and Q4!Im loving the look of USDT.D right now, it looks so bearish with the recent HTF closes. It looks done for and in the perfect wyckoff distribution.
Following the plan to a T, rejecting off the 5.90% level as discussed in the prior analysis where this was a key resistance level from the first PSY event. Price has refused to push to the upper limit of the range, rejecting from the last supply point and PSY in the range, formed a swing high on the daily, swept that high and is now continuing to distribute lower in line with the HTF picture.
This does look like a local top here following the last points of supply and we could be putting in local bottoms in the market.
Market could start its next run higher anytime over the next couple weeks now! Be patient, we are almost there!
USDT.D trade ideas
Key Zone For The Next Pump or Dump?Bitcoin's trend for the next few days/weeks should depend on how this chart plays out at this particular level. A breakdown to the 4.61% USDT Market Dominance area should give us a pump to Bitcoin's all time highs. On the other hand, a move to the 6.39% zone should make us go back below 60k. Fingers crossed. Fun, exciting times ahead.
USDT.D Important update - Oct 14 2024In the previous analysis we were expecting #USDT dominance to reach 5.99% level and above. But after hitting 5.92% level, it has been dropping.
Crucial moments are drawing near as 5.21% - 5.31% support zone is indeed the decisive zone for the entire market.
A daily close below the mentioned zone shall result in a heavy pump in the market. (given the fact that it means the long term ascending trendline (yellow) gets broken in that case.)
If the support zone stops USDT.D from further drop, BTC and the market shall dump again.
USDT Dominance: Be Cautious!USDT dominance is once again approaching its support trendline. Since March 2024, this trendline has been holding, and for the market to turn bullish or for an altseason to begin, USDT.D must break below this support trendline.
However, we need to be cautious about a rebound. If USDT dominance rebounds from the support, BTC and other altcoins are likely to experience another bearish move.
Important Points:
~ Support Trendline: 5.30%
~ Bearish Scenario for the Market: A rebound from the support trendline.
~ Bullish Scenario for the Market: A breakdown and close below the support trendline.
Note: Always do your own research and analysis before investing.
USDT Dominance UpdateThis analysis is an update of the analysis you see in the "Related publications" section
According to the previous analysis, the pump was done and reached the yellow range and then we saw a drop.
Upon further investigation, we found that the drop may not reach the previously analyzed areas.
Therefore, we have prepared an update.
Due to the strength of the drop, the up move does not look like a triangle and we see an ABC wave, we are now in wave B.
Wave B seems to be a diametric, which we are in the final wave (wave g).
From the green range, it can make a strong retracement upwards. Watch out for the green area.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
BULL MARKET### USDT Dominance (USDT.D) Short-Term Trading Analysis and Bull Market Correlation
#### **1. Chart Pattern and Candlestick**
On the **USDT.D** chart, we can observe a **rising wedge** or **ascending channel** pattern, which indicates a potential downside breakout. This pattern often leads to a bearish move, implying that if USDT dominance decreases, more liquidity is expected to flow into risk assets like altcoins and Bitcoin, signaling a potential **bull market**.
In terms of **candlestick analysis**, the last few candles have shown weak upward momentum, suggesting that while there is still some bullish sentiment in USDT.D, it is weakening.
#### **2. Fibonacci Retracement**
Key levels from the Fibonacci retracement include:
- **61.8%** at around 5.96% — currently acting as a resistance.
- **38.2%** at 7.30% — this level was a prior strong resistance.
- A breakdown below 61.8% would likely lead to a test of the **100% level** at 3.78%, a significant long-term support.
If USDT.D fails to break above the 61.8% level, it suggests a possible reversal. A drop in USDT.D usually correlates with a **bullish run** in the broader cryptocurrency market.
#### **3. MACD and Stochastic RSI Indicators**
- **MACD**: The MACD histogram shows weakening momentum, and there's a possibility of a **bearish crossover**, which would confirm a bearish outlook for USDT dominance.
- **Stochastic RSI**: With Stochastic RSI hovering at **overbought** levels (81.99), a reversal downward seems likely. This could further push USDT.D down, boosting risk appetite for cryptocurrencies.
#### **4. Divergence**
Currently, there’s no significant **divergence** between the price movement and the momentum indicators, but the overbought signals from Stochastic RSI suggest that a short-term reversal is likely.
#### **5. Market Probability and Economic Catalysts**
- **Short-Term Outlook**: The combination of a bearish **rising wedge** pattern, overbought **Stochastic RSI**, and a potential MACD cross suggests a high probability of a short-term correction in USDT dominance, which could ignite a **bull market**.
#### **Bull Market Correlation**
A decrease in USDT dominance indicates that investors are moving capital out of stablecoins (such as USDT) and into higher-risk assets like altcoins and Bitcoin. This shift in liquidity is often a precursor to the start of a **bull market** in the cryptocurrency space.
#### **Macro-Economic Catalysts**
- **Global Market Sentiment**: If inflation decreases and central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, adopt a dovish stance (pausing or reducing interest rate hikes), it can bolster investor confidence and increase liquidity flows into cryptocurrencies.
- **Monetary Policy**: A less aggressive Fed would likely reduce the demand for safe-haven assets like USDT and boost demand for riskier assets like Bitcoin and altcoins.
- **Geopolitical Uncertainty**: In times of reduced global uncertainty, investors tend to shift from stable assets like USDT to riskier assets, further reducing USDT dominance.
In summary, technical indicators point toward a potential drop in USDT dominance, which historically correlates with a crypto bull market. Additionally, macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy shifts will play a significant role in shaping this trend.
USDT.D update - Oct 10 2024#USDT Dominance has moved according to the previous analysis so far. After reaching 5.47% level, initial reversal signs appeared on the chart and upon crossing above the trendline, the new upward move got confirmed.
USDT.D is expected to continue towards areas above 6.0% level meaning that BTC and the rest of the market will probably continue to dump to lower levels.
Is The Bull Run Still Feasible In Q4?The answer can be seen from the USDT Dominance Chart, which trades in opposite direction to to every other coin ( as it shows that the market is either buying or selling at that particular time period). From this we should be able to guess the market's next move.
From the chart, we should retest the resistance in a few days or weeks which should see Bitcoin go below $59k. If the resistance of the USDT Dominance holds, we should have our Bull Run finally, this Q4.
USDT.D planThree scenarios(Bullish Case):
1. It pumps today, we see a massive pull back to 57k
2. Pulls back from GP before pumping to make a swing failure pattern
3. Pulls back today, this was the bottom(unlikely)
Expecting Scenario No. 2. want to see some sort of pull back today, trapping longs before one more dump
Alt coin season starts with this dump
USDT.D Update - Oct 07 2024#USDT dominance got close to 5.99% level and had a slight drop to its current zone of 5.47% - 5.63% and initial signs for another rise are visible. If USDT.D manages to cross above the blue trendline and 5.63% level, it will continue to higher levels. The strength of the next move is crucial to the overall market's condition.
tether can make itshort it now and make some money by this Entry
Pricce will go down easily
you can find my other analysis in TradeWithMky more than 91% winrate live in trading view account
also there are some points that i need to mentioned in near future about this pair
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USDT.D Update (1H)First of all you should know that "USDT Dominance" is always moving inverse of BTCUSDT .
Due to the news of the war in the Middle East, selling pressure has been very strong in the crypto market for several days.
Tether's dominance has now reached the supply range.
In smaller timeframes, Tether's dominance can be rejected downwards
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
Tether (USDT) Dominance: Full Analysis (Weekly Timeframe)Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen, we have an interesting chart here.
At first, I opened USDT.D on the daily timeframe and immediately thought that it was bearish, that's the first impression that I received when looking at the chart, after a few seconds it became mixed.
I then switched to the weekly timeframe and patterns changed completely. Plotting the moving averages surely added another dimension.
Let's review this chart together and see what it has to say.
My name is Alan, and it is always my pleasure to write for you.
The Tether Dominance index chart (USDT.D) has been bullish forever, it was always growing until June 2022 when it peaked and started to move sideways with bearish tendencies. Sideways while producing lower highs.
A lower high in November 2022, another lower high in June 2023, then again in September 2023 and finally a crash. The crash ended in a major low in March 2024. The exact same date that USDT.D bottomed, Bitcoin peaked.
The level at which it bottomed, one session and on a wick, which is a signal of strength, is the same level that produced the last up-move before the June 2022 peak.
This level is super strong and worked for consolidation between January and March 2022. Now it worked as support in March 2024.
Tether Dominance moved below MA200, and this produced the climax of the crash. Slowly but surely it recovered above MA200.
The crash led almost to the test of EMA377 but prices bounced before reaching this level, a signal of strength.
After the March 2024 support was hit, a perfect ascending channel develop, truly perfect. After a peak in August and lower high in September, we saw a three weeks correction pushing the index to retest MA200 as support. It closed below MA200 but this week moved back above this level right away.
Today, USDT.D trades above MA200 within an ascending channel, perfect higher highs and higher lows with a bullish bias.
➖ If this index were to move below 5.21%, it would be easy to see it lower and extremely bearish, with plenty of room to move down. But as long as the index trades above 5.38%, on the other hand, it is super bullish and set to continue higher.
Since the bounce in March 2024, there has never been three consecutive weeks closing red until last week. Always after two weeks red, there would be some bullish action. We saw three weeks red, which means an over-extended move, and right after, a strong green candle.
This is surely an interesting and crucial point, a wait and see moment but the chart is 100% clear.
The chart has been rising for almost seven months printing a perfect rising channel. It moved below a very strong long-term support level just to quickly bounce back above it. While we can have doubts as to what will actually happen next, the chart is saying that the bulls have the upper hand and the index will continue to grow in the coming weeks.
There are two ways that these bullish signals can become invalid:
1) Short-term. The index moves and closes a full candle below 5.21%. This would break MA200 and the perfect rising channel.
2) Long-term. The index moves and closes weekly below 4.67%. This would break the rising channel irrevocably, in a way that a new one cannot be drawn and thus the rising trend is invalidated. This would be equivalent with Bitcoin moving and closing above 71K.
Thank you for reading.
Your support is appreciated.
Namaste.
Massive Bitcoin Surge Ahead? Watch for USDT Dominance Breakout
First of all you should know that "USDT Dominance" is always the inverse of BTC USDT.
USDT Dominance refers to the percentage of Tether (USDT) in the total crypto market cap. It shows how much capital flows into or out of stablecoins like USDT compared to other cryptocurrencies. When USDT dominance increases, it suggests investors are moving into stablecoins, potentially indicating fear or uncertainty in the market.
BTC correlation with USDT dominance is typically inverse. When USDT dominance increases, it often suggests that traders are moving out of Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptos into USDT, leading to a potential drop in BTC price. Conversely, when USDT dominance decreases, it may indicate that traders are moving funds from USDT into BTC, potentially driving BTC's price up.
Due to the news of the war in the Middle East, selling pressure has been very strong in the crypto market for several days.
As you can see on the chart USDT.D is moving in the ascending channel for approximately 205 days. After USDT.D breaks below from the ascending channel we could see a very bullish move in the Bitcoin price and as you know Altcoins follow it.
Everything is on the chart.
USDT.D Pulling back into Last Point of SupplyUSDT.D Update:
The markets pulling back as expected, this is as USDT.D pulls back into the range with some momentum, creating a bearish pullback in BTC and alts in conjunction with my prior BTC and USDT.D analysis
Nothing to be worried about, simply pulling back into the range forming a last point of supply in the distribution range on USDT.D and a last point of support on BTC in its range.
We still have some pain to come where i anticipate USDT.D to push higher into the areas marked up before seeing the reversal back bearish, what matters here is sticking to the plan and remaining patient.
If your not allocated in the market, this pullback will provide ample opportunity to get some exposure and risk on before the next bullish leg in the market as USDT.D breaks down out of this range. This will be one of the last chances you get to get in coins that are still priced in discounts relative to the HTF!
As price has pushed into this area im seeing an increase in volume from the latest 2 daily candles which is a good sign imo as we come into this key area and supply. However, theres no signs yet to suggest the trend on USDT.D is over and we remain bullish on the daily and 4h as we push into the range high.
As a result, im still expecting more pain in the market and red until USDT.D tops out and there is still room to the upside for it to push into as shown on the chart. I remain patient here and confident in my bias and idea still as nothing has changed at all.
There is a lot of resistance coming up on USDT.D and id be surprised to see it continue to the upside when theres a lot of levels to clear in this range as well as the prior resistance at 6.51% and the PSY at 5.90%. These areas key areas and im looking for USDT.D to reject from these areas, with high volume before breaking down from the 4h into the daily and then pro trend in line with the HTF picture as discussed here: free-analysis-channel.
Patience needed here and some confirmations from these areas over the coming week or so!
Never surprised, never worried and always composed 🫡
USDT.D Update - Oct 02 2024USDT dominance has followed previous analysis beautifully. The reaction to 5.3% zone was strong indeed and as a result the whole market dumped heavily.
The next important area ahead of USDT.D is 5.99% - 6.04% zone where a reaction can be expected but judging by the strength of the recent move, it's high possibility that USDT.D will push through the mentioned zone and will reach higher levels. So Sell strategy is advised for now.
Everything going by the plan!Hello Traders,
Based on my previous post DOM reached 5.70% with a little push after the escalated war news in the Middle East. But again BTC was on the path of free fall even before the war.
The chart has developed a small double top that should retest the monthly open the following days.
There is the possibility that DOM might try to create LH at around the 5.85 - 5.95% zone cause we are waiting for Israel to respond to yesterday's attack.
Let's see what the chart will give us next.
Bitcoin Faces Bearish Pressure: Analysis Based on USDT.DAs of October 2024, Bitcoin appears to be entering a period of heightened bearish pressure, with USDT (Tether) market cap dominance signaling significant shifts in investor sentiment and risk management across the cryptocurrency markets. The USDT.D (USDT dominance) chart reflects market behavior that points towards reduced confidence in speculative assets such as Bitcoin, with the increase in USDT dominance indicating that traders are moving funds into stable assets. Let’s explore this in further detail, combining technical analysis with fundamental and geopolitical factors.
Sentiment Shift: USDT Dominance on the Rise
The chart indicates that USDT dominance is currently trending upward, hovering at around 5.7%. With a clear upward trajectory from its lows of 3.8%, this suggests that more market participants are parking their capital in USDT. This rising USDT dominance is often interpreted as a bearish signal for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as it implies that investors are seeking safety in stablecoins, rather than taking on the risk of volatile crypto assets.
Notably, the price action of USDT dominance is testing key Bollinger Band levels. The red bands, indicating higher volatility zones, suggest that there is a heightened probability of a further spike in dominance. As USDT dominance pushes higher into the Bollinger Band range, Bitcoin and other speculative assets face selling pressure. The chart shows a growing preference for stability, which coincides with Bitcoin's decreasing speculative appeal in the current environment.
Rising ATR: Volatility Building in the Market
The Average True Range (ATR) percentage on the chart points towards increased volatility, sitting at 32.6%, and climbing to a peak of 46.9%. This heightened volatility, indicated by the widening ATR band, signals increasing uncertainty in the market. Historically, such volatility is often followed by bearish moves for risk-on assets like Bitcoin.
As volatility grows, traders and institutions typically seek refuge in less volatile assets, pushing them towards USDT or other stablecoins. The increase in ATR% suggests a continued trend of traders reducing their exposure to Bitcoin in favor of more stable investments. The consistent rise in the ATR percentage alongside the growing USDT dominance strongly suggests that the market expects a period of heightened turbulence for Bitcoin.
Fundamental Analysis: Stubborn Inflation, Central Bank Tightening, and Institutional Pullback
Bitcoin’s bearish sentiment can be linked to broader macroeconomic factors, where persistent inflation and tight monetary policies continue to hamper speculative markets. Inflationary pressures remain a concern globally, especially in regions like the United States and Europe, where central banks have adopted a more aggressive stance to tighten monetary policies.
The Federal Reserve’s ongoing interest rate hikes, aimed at curbing inflation, have made riskier investments like Bitcoin less attractive. Higher interest rates reduce the appeal of speculative assets, as borrowing costs rise and liquidity contracts. The shift to USDT reflects the broader flight to safety as investors await a clearer signal from central banks regarding future economic stability.
Institutional interest in Bitcoin has also tapered. Many firms that entered the space during the 2021 bull market are now pulling back, reducing their exposure to cryptocurrencies. Institutions are becoming more risk-averse as concerns about tightening financial conditions, higher bond yields, and slowing global growth take center stage. This reduced demand from major market players further adds downward pressure on Bitcoin.
Geopolitical Factors: Global Uncertainty
Geopolitical instability is another critical factor weighing down Bitcoin's outlook. Ongoing conflicts, notably in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, have led to considerable uncertainty in global markets. Investors are now factoring in geopolitical risk alongside economic risk, leading to a preference for safer assets.
Additionally, regulatory scrutiny on cryptocurrency markets, particularly stablecoins and decentralized finance, has escalated over the past year. US regulators, for example, are increasing oversight on Tether and other stablecoin providers, but ironically, this has not diminished the market's reliance on USDT as a safe haven. The market's trust in Tether amid rising scrutiny indicates a broader retreat from volatile assets like Bitcoin and a preference for liquid, USD-pegged stablecoins.
Moreover, China’s continued crackdown on cryptocurrency activities and Europe’s regulatory frameworks have dampened enthusiasm in the space. These geopolitical tensions contribute to the bearish outlook, as regional instability and regulatory pressures keep risk appetite low.
Bitcoin's Path Forward
Considering these factors, Bitcoin faces significant headwinds in the near term. The chart analysis, with rising USDT dominance and escalating volatility, presents a clear bearish picture. Coupled with the current macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop, Bitcoin is likely to experience downward pressure as market participants continue to seek safety in USDT.
The combination of central bank tightening, heightened global risk, and regulatory challenges makes it difficult for Bitcoin to regain the speculative momentum it enjoyed during previous bull markets. While Bitcoin has historically shown resilience, its ability to recover in the current environment looks increasingly uncertain.
In conclusion, the growing dominance of USDT in the crypto market reflects a broader shift away from risk assets like Bitcoin. With rising volatility and macroeconomic challenges, the bearish pressure on Bitcoin is likely to persist in the coming months, barring any major shifts in the global financial or regulatory landscape. Investors should remain cautious and consider hedging strategies as the cryptocurrency market enters a more uncertain phase.
Tether's Dominance Analysis (1D)First of all you should know that "USDT Dominance" is always moving inverse of BTCUSDT .
One of the indexes that helps our risk management is Tether Dominance.
As you can see, this index can go up to the yellow circle and then it will not be rejected.
For risk management, until Tether's dominance reaches the yellow circle, we enter the symbols we analyzed with small volumes or we do not enter.
When this index reaches the range of the yellow circle, we will look for buy/long positions on Bitcoin and some altcoins.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
BTC Rally TargetsMy Potential Targets for a Local Top on BTC/Crypto is the 20W SMA for USDT.D and the zone between 4.71 - 4.81.
Confluence with 1D RSI (it should be in bottom zone by 1st, if not 2nd Target.
The zone and MA has acted as Support 3 times previously in 2024:
July 29th, 2024
July 22nd, 2024
June 17th, 2024
I will be watching those areas for a bounce in USDT.D which would correlated with a local top in Crypto/BTC