BTCUSDT Analysis – Pivot 103k/106k, strategy and key zones__________________________________________________________________________________
Technical Overview – Summary Points
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Momentum : Bullish structure on 1D/12H (MTFTI “Up”), but short-term consolidation (1H-2H “Down”). Momentum exhaustion observed.
Key Supports/Resistances : Resistances: 105287.8 / 106743.9 / 109952.8 / 111949. Supports: 103033.3 / 100333.3 / 93337.4. Repeated rejections below 105-106k, active testing of 103-100k supports.
Volume : Normal or slightly elevated on all timeframes. No capitulation or euphoric extremes detected.
Multi-TF Behaviour : Strong sector leadership (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator = “Strong Buy” across all frames; growth stocks > market). No behavioural anomalies on ISPD DIV. High-cycle consolidation below resistance.
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Strategic Summary
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Overall Bias : Neutral/bullish as long as 103k/100k holds. Bullish momentum intact, but short-term caution warranted.
Opportunities : Defensive buys/technical pullbacks above 103k; scalp/range trading 103-106k.
Risk Zones : Confirmed breakdown below 100k or acceleration in LTH distribution.
Macro Catalysts : Next FOMC June 17-18; no major short-term events identified (recent neutral macro, FOMC is key for swings).
Action Plan : Prioritize strict stops (≥3%) near pivots, consistent monitoring of behaviour/volume. Avoid overexposure pre-FOMC.
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Multi-Timeframe Analysis
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1D : Structuring range below 109952.8-111949 resistances. Bullish HTF trend, but momentum pausing. Average volume. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator “Strong Buy”. No extreme ISPD signals (neutral).
12H – 6H : Consolidation; supports holding, no euphoric confirmation (normal volumes, ISPD DIV neutral). Sector leadership unchanged.
4H : Compression below 105287.8. Moderate volume. Defensive resumption on supports. MTFTI bullish. Dynamic risk: monitor for sell-side capitulation.
2H – 1H : Technical correction, active retest of 105k (range 103-105k). Absorption volume. MTFTI “Down”.
30min – 15min : Short-term positive bias above 103k. Risk of false break if volume remains low. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator “Buy”/“Strong Buy”.
Cross-Indicators : Market leadership confirmed: Risk On / Risk Off Indicator = Strong Buy on all frames >15min. No excess behaviour or significant divergences detected. Key ranges: 103k-105k. On-chain: heavy LTH profit-taking but no panic.
Summary : BTC market in post-cycle-high congestion phase, structurally robust, but momentum recalibrating with fewer “easy trades.”
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Cross insights & on-chain summary
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On-chain (Glassnode) : Top at $111.8k, correction to $103.2k by LTH profit-taking. Spot accumulation on $103.7k/$95.6k. Upside limited unless fresh buying flows return.
Macro events : Awaiting FOMC; no recent surprises. Price action and levels dominate short-term strategy.
Stops/invalidation : Swing long defended at 103k/100k (stop <100k H4). Partial short/sell below 106743.9/109952.8. Dynamic targets: 106-109.9k; extension: 111.8k if breakout on volume.
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Conclusion & Actionable Plan
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Market condition:
- High consolidation, ranging below major resistances.
- Long-term bullish, short-term momentum fading.
- Neutral/bullish if 100-103k holds.
- “No macro — only levels” until FOMC or volatility catalyst.
Tactical decision:
- Trade technically, stops ≥3% under supports.
- Defended buys at 103k (stop <100k), partial profit 106-109k.
- Continuous monitoring of volume/on-chain zone reaction.
- Aggressive exit/hedge below support, target 96k/83k.
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100% analysis based on TradingView multi-TF, Glassnode on-chain, macro calendar and risk management.
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