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itcoin Intraday Highlights (Thesis Prediction)Market Position: Current Price: $104,492.92, down -1.56% in the last 24 hours. Resistance: $106,394 | Support: $103,700. Trend: Short-term bearish but within consolidation as price stays inside Bollinger Bands. Key Technical Indicators: RSI (14): 45.38, approaching neutral, easing selling pressure. MACD (30-min): Bearish signal, with histogram at -141.18. Bollinger Bands: Price near the lower band, suggesting potential support or further downside. On-Chain Insights: Exchange Balances: Binance BTC holdings at 1.81M BTC, signaling reduced selling pressure. Funding Rates (Binance): Neutral (0.00100%), indicating no strong directional bias. Market Sentiment: Fear & Greed Index: 84 (Extreme Greed) despite recent decline. Trading Volume: Dropped -31.89% to $112.68B, signaling reduced activity or consolidation. Scenarios: Bullish (35%): Rebound from $103,700 support; test of $106,000+. Bearish (50%): Break below $103,700; potential drop to $100,000. Sideways (15%): Range-bound trading between $103,700–$106,394 until a catalyst appears. Note: Watch for breakout or breakdown signals and manage risk due to Bitcoin's high volatility.
by titankarma
Will BTC Soar or Sink? H4 Price Action Secrets UnveiledMarket Structure Overview The BTC/USDT chart on the H4 timeframe showcases a market transitioning from an uptrend into a potential consolidation or early trend reversal phase. Key observations include: Higher Highs (HH): January 18–20 showed a consistent upward push, with a peak HH near $108,000. Higher Lows (HL): A steady rise in HLs, with support forming near $100,000, followed by another HL around $102,000. Resistance: The price appears capped around $108,000, with a slight bearish reaction indicating sellers stepping in. Support: The most recent support zone is around $102,000. This structure suggests we are in a potential trading range between $102,000 (support) and $108,000 (resistance) after an aggressive upward move. 🐂 Bullish Scenario: The market is still producing HLs, indicating buyers are willing to step in. Price remains above the moving average (pink line), which acts as dynamic support. The consolidation could be a Bull Flag, a continuation pattern. If $108,000 breaks, a Measured Move target around $112,000-$114,000 is possible (based on the range from $102,000 to $108,000). Bullish Plan: Entry: Go long above $106,000 on a strong breakout candle. Stop-Loss: Below $104,000 (just under recent HL). Profit Target: $112,000-$114,000 (measured move target). Probability: 60%, given the recent trend and buyer strength. 🐻 Bearish Scenario: The double top at $108,000 hints at resistance, with sellers defending this level. Bearish candles breaking below $104,000 could suggest a short-term reversal. If the price falls below $102,000, it would form a Lower Low (LL), initiating a bearish trend. Possible exhaustion of buyers after the last HH spike. Bearish Plan: Entry: Short below $104,000, confirming a breakout of support. Stop-Loss: Above $106,000 (above consolidation high). Profit Target: $100,000 and potentially $98,000. Probability: 40%, as the structure currently favors bulls. Educational Patterns for New Traders Inside Bars: Watch for smaller candles forming within the previous candle's range. They often precede breakouts. Measured Moves (MM): The distance of the previous range (e.g., $102,000–$108,000) can be projected upward or downward after a breakout. Exhaustion Gaps: Be cautious of sharp moves upward (like near $108,000); they may signal buyer exhaustion. Higher Highs and Higher Lows: These are critical in identifying trends. Bulls need a HH break for confirmation, while bears look for LLs to gain control. Trader’s Equation Summary Bullish Plan: Risk = $2,000 (from $106,000 to $104,000); Reward = $6,000-$8,000 ($112,000-$114,000). Reward-to-Risk = 3:1 to 4:1. Bearish Plan: Risk = $2,000 (from $104,000 to $106,000); Reward = $4,000-$6,000 ($100,000-$98,000). Reward-to-Risk = 2:1 to 3:1. Final thoughts: The bias leans slightly bullish, but the trading range breakout will confirm the next dominant move. Stay flexible! What do you think will happen next? Will BTC bulls dominate, or will bears take control? Share your thoughts below, and let’s discuss potential setups!
by PriceActionHero
BTC IS GOING TO ALL TIME HIGH LADIES AND GENTLEMEN ! BTC ended up in a complex WXY correction. Initially what may have seemed like a FLAT ended up being WXY. No matter how much the MM plays with the market and no matter what news hits the screen, algos always run their course guys. We are in the early formation of wave 3, which will make history. True we may retrace a bit more to tap the lower levels but this will sling shot BTC to the ATH ! Remember the deeper the retracement of wave 2, the higher will be wave 3, a slingshot - - get it ;). Mega hidden bullish divergence on the weekly also playing out well. Invalidation of this idea is at the low of Wave Y. WorD of advice guys, avoid over leverage and practice risk management fells. DCA is the name of the game. When Bitcoin hits ATH, all ALTS will pop like fireworks hence DCA and Spot Buy is the name of the game, especially for all the young bucks and inspiring traders out there. Disclaimer: Not financial advice.
Long
by Pakcryptonomics
BTC/USDT Analysis: Bitcoin Riding the Waves of Optimism As we dive into this BTC/USDT chart, it’s clear that Bitcoin is not just a cryptocurrency—it’s an art form. The chart showcases a detailed Elliott Wave analysis, complete with corrective W-X-Y patterns and impulsive waves screaming, “I’m going places!” Let’s break it down step by step. The Elliott Wave Breakdown Bitcoin has been playing out its Elliott Wave structure with the precision of a virtuoso pianist. Here’s what we’re looking at: 1. Wave (1) to Wave (5): A Symphony of Higher Highs. 2. Wave (1) was the opening act, starting the bullish rally. 3. Wave (2) provided a dramatic correction, retracing as deep as a poet’s feelings on a rainy day. 4. Wave (3) emerged as the headliner, the longest and strongest wave, with Bitcoin shouting, “Catch me if you can!” 5. Wave (4), our consolidation buddy, is taking a breather, making sure BTC doesn’t exhaust itself before the final sprint. 6. Wave (5) looks ready to take the stage and hit the projected target of $128,647.56. The bulls seem to be prepping their rockets for this one. 2. The W-X-Y Correction Before the current rally, BTC went through a complex W-X-Y correction. Think of it as Bitcoin saying, “Let me stretch a bit before the next marathon.” This correction has set the stage for the bullish impulses we’re seeing now. Indicators: The Whispering Bulls 1. Williams %R and Stoch RSI: Hidden Bullish Divergences Both indicators are practically screaming “hidden bullish divergences” like fans at a rock concert. These signals suggest that the bulls are working behind the scenes, setting the stage for the next big move. 2. RSI: Staying Strong The RSI remains comfortably above 50, signaling that the bullish momentum is intact. It’s like Bitcoin is cruising down the highway, windows down, music blasting, and no signs of slowing. The Price Target: To $128,000 and Beyond! Bitcoin has been known to defy expectations. While $128K might feel like aiming for the moon, let’s not forget—this is Bitcoin, and the moon is just the first stop. Key Levels to Watch 1. Support Zones The $80,000 level is a key psychological support. If Bitcoin revisits this area, it could serve as a launchpad for the next leg up. 2. Resistance Levels The $100,000 mark will likely be a battle zone. Expect bears to put up a fight here, but with the momentum we’re seeing, the bulls might just plow through. In Conclusion: Strap In, Bulls Bitcoin is looking bullish on all fronts. The Elliott Wave structure, hidden bullish divergences, and strong RSI readings all point to higher prices in the near future. However, as always, remember that markets love surprises, and it’s always good to keep your risk in check. For now, though, it looks like Bitcoin is preparing for a grand finale. Let’s hope the bulls keep the momentum going because $128,647 is calling, and Bitcoin seems eager to answer. 🚀 Disclaimer: NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE!
Long
by Pakcryptonomics
BTC Set for Bigger Shakes Over Time? Break 90K & Over 120K?BINANCE:BTCUSDT has been quite volatile lately since Dec., as it's moving within a broadening triangle pattern. This pattern is characterized by its expanding price range, meaning the price swings get larger and more dramatic over time. Right now, Bitcoin has the potential to climb above $120K, but BTC could also drop sharply to $90,900. That’s a massive $30K range—and it’s only expected to grow wider. If we see one or two quick drops to the bottom of the broadening triangle, the market sentiment could turn bearish. General investors might start panic-selling, which allows major players to collect coins at lower prices. But here’s the key: even a sudden $30K drop within this pattern doesn’t affect Bitcoin’s long-term bullish outlook. It’s just noise within the structure. Are you ready to navigate this increasingly wild market? Every coin has multiple potential scenarios. This is just one of them, and I’ll share more scripts in the future. Follow me for updates! 😃
by Harold_123
DIAMOND HANDS THE VOLATILITYYou should be calm and patient during this volatility. The $TRUMP and $MELANIA tokens were just short-term liquidity black holes, and they onboarded hundreds of thousands of people into crypto. This means that many people sold their existing tokens, including CRYPTOCAP:BTC , to rush and buy them. However, as the hype dies down, the money will go back into altcoins, and they will bounce, similar to what happened with PSX:SNAI today (+90%). Trump hasn't announced a CRYPTOCAP:BTC Strategic Reserve yet, but he did buy GETTEX:47M worth of CRYPTOCAP:BTC today, so this is still very bullish. He will likely announce the reserve once he is positioned well. Just stay patient and DIAMOND HANDS.
Long
by CryptoJayTrades
FOMO and Hope for a Price Reversal: Two Psychological Traps❓ Have you ever entered a trade out of fear of missing out (FOMO) or held on to a losing position, hoping the market would turn in your favor? Psychological mistakes are a huge factor in whether a trader succeeds or fails. One of the most common and damaging mistakes is FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), followed by holding onto trades because of an unrealistic hope that the market will reverse despite all evidence pointing to the opposite. These behaviors are far too common, even among experienced traders. Understanding and avoiding them is essential to improve your trading results. 🧵 💡In this article, we’ll break down the psychological mistakes every trader faces, how to identify them, and practical strategies to prevent them from affecting your trades. The Psychological Side of Trading 🧠 In trading, emotions can be our worst enemy. Here are two common psychological traps that many traders fall into: 🔮 FOMO (Fear of Missing Out): What It Is: FOMO is when you enter a trade impulsively, simply because you see others making profits or you fear missing the "big move." Why It Happens: The market seems to be moving in one direction, and you don't want to miss out on potential profits. This often happens when you're watching others on social media or in trading groups. Impact: This leads to impulsive decisions, often entering trades late in the trend or at inappropriate levels. Tip: To combat FOMO, stick to your pre-defined trading plan and only take trades based on your specific criteria. Remember, there will always be new opportunities. 🔎 Unrealistic Hope in Price Reversals: What It Is: This is when you hold onto a losing position, hoping that the market will reverse in your favor, despite clear signs to the contrary. Why It Happens: It’s often rooted in the belief that “the market can’t keep going against me,” or the hope that the trend will change. Impact: This often results in larger losses because the trader doesn't cut their losses early and ends up holding onto a position until it’s too late. Tip: When you see signs that the market is continuing against you, cut your losses quickly. Trading is about being patient and disciplined, not about hoping for a reversal. 🛠 Strategies and Tools for Managing Emotions 📈 Trading is all about control—control over risk, strategy, and most importantly, over your emotions. Here are some tools and strategies to keep your psychology in check: 1. Position Sizing & Risk Management Position Sizing: One of the most effective ways to reduce emotional stress and maintain control over your trades is by managing your position size. A general rule of thumb is to risk 1-2% of your total account balance on each trade. However, this percentage can vary based on your risk tolerance, experience, and self-awareness. As you gain more experience and better understand your risk profile, you may adjust this amount accordingly, but always ensure you're comfortable with the risk you're taking. 2. Stick to Your Strategy Trading Plan: Make sure you have a solid trading plan and stick to it. Your plan should include: Entry signals Exit signals Risk management rules (e.g., stop-loss, take-profit levels) Don't Chase the Market: If you missed the breakout, don’t chase it. There will always be new opportunities, and chasing the market often leads to poor entry points and higher risks. 3. Psychological Self-Awareness Track Your Emotions: Keep a trading journal to track not only your trades but also your emotional state. Understanding your psychological triggers (e.g., fear, greed) can help you avoid emotional mistakes. Set Realistic Expectations: Remember, trading is a marathon, not a sprint. Accept that you will have losses, and focus on your long-term profitability rather than on every single trade. Successfully navigating trading isn’t just about technical indicators or chart patterns—it’s also about controlling your emotions. FOMO and holding on to unrealistic hopes can seriously damage your trading performance. The key is to develop a strong psychological mindset: stick to your strategy, manage your risk, and always make decisions based on data, not emotions. 💌Now, it’s your turn! Which psychological mistakes have you encountered in your trading journey? Share your experiences in the comments below and let’s learn from each other! I’m Skeptic , here to simplify trading and help you achieve mastery step by step. Let’s keep growing together! 🤍
Education
by SkepticWise
1
20/01/25 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $106,467.97 Last weeks low: $89,292.15 Midpoint: $97,880.06 The Trump era begins... January 20th 2025 is the date in which America sees its new Republican administration take office. An administration that has promised to embrace crypto instead of demonise it, one that wants the future of crypto to be built in the US, so far Trumps picks for SEC chairman and other important related roles have reflected that pro-crypto belief. However, launching a $TRUMP memecoin and the subsequent $MELANIA memecoins just moments before inauguration in my opinion is a very bad start. Not only did the launch of TRUMP draw out liquidity from the altcoin market, it also damages the broader market just from an optics point of view. The general publics perception of crypto is it's full of scams, pump and dumps etc so to try and change the general publics mind the answer is to... Launch a memecoin... Now I'm fully aware Donald Trump himself probably has very little to do with this, just like most celebrity memecoins but I just don't see how this is a positive start for the administration in proving their pro-crypto stance. Bitcoin did have its highest weekly close of all time @ $106,500, which was $2000 higher than the previous ATH. +20% move from weekly low to high in anticipation for the potential Bitcoin strategic reserve announcement. Avoiding a SFP similar to that of week commencing January 6th will be a priority for BTC, we are in a rangebound environment so a SFP can have the potential to drop back down and undo a lot of the previous weeks progress. Until BTC breaks the rangebound environment and begins a trending move I will treat it as such. For this week I'm keeping a close eye on the Liberty Financial portfolio (ETH,AAVE,LINK,ONDO,ENS) & US based majors (SOL,SUI,AVAX, ADA, STX,INJ) etc. The play is definitely coins that will be directly influenced by this new US administration, at least for now I cannot see any liquidity go towards any other coins for the time being.
by ProR35
BTC Short Term Roadmap 3 possible outcomes based on trend and resistance supports, demand zones, and market volume increases based on sec insight data from current oversight committee as being pro crypto (very good for crypto future). having a strong bounce from our current demand zone will give the best outcome for a new high above 111-112k. Rejection of the dynamic resistance we could see some sideways movement like the past few months where we saw swings between 48k and 73k forming a large flag pattern. Seeing the same setup could be likely to gain more support around the 95k range to make a higher high. breaking that 87k-89k range would mean previous falling back to 67k-73k support. Next new high would be somewhere around the high teens low 120ks.
by Crypto-RyGuy
BTC Price & Market Overview 1. Price & Market Overview BTC Price: Trading between $108,550 and $108,600, up +3.5% in the past 24 hours. Intraday high: ~$109,588, reflecting strong upward momentum from ~$100k earlier this week. Market Sentiment: Fear & Greed Index: 76 (still in "Greed," slightly down by -1.3% from the previous day). Bitcoin Dominance: 57.54% (+0.05%), maintaining a strong position in the crypto market. Macro Context: Gold Futures: +0.29% ($2709.31), indicating slight risk-hedge interest. USD Index (DXY): -0.28% (108.900), a weaker USD favors risk-on assets like BTC. 2. On-Chain & Spot Flows Exchange Balances: ~1.81M BTC on exchanges, down -0.06%, consistent with long-term outflows but no dramatic changes. Spot Flows: Moderate net outflows over the last 8–12 hours suggest potential accumulation off-exchange. Implication: Reduced exchange balances decrease immediate selling pressure, supporting price increases if demand holds steady. 3. Derivatives Overview Open Interest (OI): $153.81B (+2.14%), indicating strong trader interest as prices climb. Futures Volume (24h): $550.56B (+77.71%), a sharp increase, often linked to significant price movements like short squeezes. 24h Liquidations: $1.05B (+83.93%), reflecting a wave of short liquidations above $105k–$107k. Funding Rates: Generally positive (e.g., Binance BTC/USDT ~0.0308%), reflecting a net-long bias. Extremely high funding could signal an overheated market and precede a correction. CME Futures: OI: $20.79B (+3.82%), highlighting institutional trader interest. Watch for weekend-related gaps causing volatility upon reopening. 4. Technical Indicators Price Action: BTC broke above $105k resistance, surging toward ~$109k. Consolidating near $108.5k, with next key resistance at $110k. MACD: Bullish crossover with a positive histogram (~706.79 on 1h), signaling strong upward momentum. RSI: In the 66–68 range, nearing overbought levels but not extreme. Bollinger Bands: Price near the upper band, suggesting a possible short-term pullback or consolidation after rapid gains. 5. Notable Events & Highlights Short Squeeze: Massive liquidations of short positions (10x–25x leverage) above $105k–$107k fueled the rally. CME Futures Risk: Weekend gaps may lead to volatility when traditional markets reopen on Monday. Regulatory News: No immediate developments, but speculation around favorable policies or interventions continues to influence sentiment. 6. Likely Scenarios (Next ~12–24 Hours) Continuation to $110k+ (~40% Probability): Sustained bullish momentum and high volume could drive BTC to test or break $110k. Sideways Consolidation (~35% Probability): BTC consolidates between $106k and $109k, digesting recent gains. Pullback/Correction (~25% Probability): Profit-taking or market cooling pushes BTC toward $105k or $103k. Watch for negative funding or large exchange inflows as warning signs. 7. Overall Confidence Level Market Bias: Moderately Bullish (~60% confidence). Upside Drivers: Positive funding rates, high volume, and continued short liquidations. Risks: Overbought RSI, CME gap risk, potential profit-taking near $110k. Final Note Monitor $110k resistance closely for a breakout or rejection. Pay attention to liquidation clusters, funding rate spikes, and any significant exchange inflows. A decisive move above $110k could trigger another wave of liquidations, while a failure could lead to a pullback. Maintain disciplined risk management practices.
by titankarma
iS BITCOIN SETTING A BULL TRAP ?Bitcoin Technical Analysis Video Description In this video, I analyze Bitcoin's recent surge to its all-time highs, focusing on the implications for traders. Utilizing the weekly chart, I delve into various technical analysis tools that aid in identifying potential reversal points in the market. A key feature of my analysis is a custom equidistance channel tool, which highlights potential reversals at extreme positions within the channel. When the price aggressively approaches the upper boundary, it often signals an impending reversal, while a deep push into the lower boundary suggests a similar outcome. I also integrate pivot points and harmonic patterns into my analysis, enhancing my ability to predict critical reversal zones. Based on my comprehensive evaluation of price action in conjunction with these tools, I caution that Bitcoin's current bullish trajectory could lead to a bull trap. This scenario may catch many traders off guard, potentially resulting in significant losses for those attempting to capitalize on this rally.
Short
by fx_Chief_007
1