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BTC: Imminent Breakout with Final Swing Trade OpportunityA breakout for BTC is on the horizon. We’ve seen a small breach of the upward trendline, and with momentum building, we’re now watching closely for a decisive break of the upper trendline. If this happens, Wave 4 will be complete, leaving only Wave 5 of 5 of 5 remaining. Once a full open and close above the trendline is confirmed, I’ll be going long, planning to ride it until Wave 5 completes. This could be the final swing trade of the season before a lengthy corrective phase sets in—a potential year-long winter of correction. If you’re looking for a last big trade before the market cools, now’s the time to prepare.
Long
by cryptechcapital
1
Market overviewWHAT HAPPENED? Last week, as expected, we broke through the sloping line and started a downward movement. Only the strong volume zone of $66,000-$65,100 (volume reaction), which we noted, could stop it. After receiving a reaction from the buyer, bitcoin was trading sideways for the rest of the week. WHAT WILL HAPPEN: OR NOT? At the moment, we’re above the formed zone of maximum volumes of $67,500-$66,800. There is a high probability of testing the levels formed above. The cumulative delta is also on the side of the "bulls", the same pattern of absorption of market sells by limit orders is noticed. We consider changing the scenario to a downward one only with a true breakdown of the local minimum of $65,250. Buy zones: $67,500-$66,800 (maximum volume of the sideways range), $63,100-$62,500 (mirrored volume zone), $60,000-$59,000 (buyer activity), $55,000-$53,800 (volume zone), $57,000-$56,400 (volume zone). Sell zones: $70,000 level (seller market activity), $72,000 level (seller market activity). IMPORTANT DATES • Tuesday, October 29, 14:00 (UTC) — publication of the US consumer confidence index for October and the number of open vacancies in the US JOLTS labor market for September; • Wednesday, October 30, 9:00 (UTC) — German GDP publication; • Wednesday, October 30, 9:30 (UTC) — press conference of the Swiss National Bank; • Wednesday, October 30, 10:00 (UTC) — the UK autumn budget forecast; • Wednesday, October 30, 12:15 (UTC) — publication of changes in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector from the US ADP for October; • Wednesday, October 30, 12:30 (UTC) — publication of US GDP for the 3rd quarter; • Wednesday, October 30, 13:00 (UTC) — publication of the German consumer price index for October; • Thursday, October 31, 1:30 (UTC) — publication of the index of business activity in the Chinese manufacturing sector for October; • Thursday, October 31, 3:00 (UTC) — announcement of Japan's interest rate decision; • Thursday, October 31, 10:00 (UTC) — publication of the consumer price index in the Eurozone for 2024; • Thursday, October 31, 12:30 (UTC) — publication of the basic price index of US personal consumption expenditures for September and 2024, as well as the number of initial applications for US unemployment benefits; • Friday, November 1, 12:30 (UTC) — publication of average hourly wages, changes in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector and the US unemployment rate for October; • Friday, November 1, 14:00 (UTC) — publication of the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from the US ISM for October; • Friday, November 1, 14:45 (UTC) — publication of the index of business activity in the US manufacturing sector for October. *This post is not a financial recommendation. Make decisions based on your own experience.
by Crypto_robotics
RAG-GPT-4o run-time > 10.000 data The current market conditions for Bitcoin (BTC) present a complex scenario. With no open positions currently, we have the flexibility to capitalize on short-term price movements over the next 8 hours. The bullish sentiment driven by political factors and options market predictions suggests potential upward momentum. However, technical indicators across multiple timeframes indicate overbought conditions, which could lead to a pullback or consolidation. Data Analysis Open Interest: Moderate increase, suggesting growing trader engagement. Weighted Funding Rate: Positive, indicating a slight bullish bias. Liquidation Data: Recent spike in long liquidations, signaling caution for new long entries. Binance Data Trading Volume: Consistently high with significant buy-side pressure. Expert Predictions: Potential continuation of the bullish trend but with caution due to overbought technical indicators. Analysts: CryptoCapo and RektCapital suggest waiting for a pullback before entering new long positions. CoinMarketCap Data 24-Hour Trading Volume: $45 billion. Circulating Supply: 18.7 million BTC. Market Cap: $1.28 trillion. Analysis: Volume spikes in the 1m and 8h intervals indicate active trading, supporting short-term scalping opportunities. Sentiment Analysis Market Sentiment: Predominantly bullish. Top Sentiments: "Bullish" and "FOMO". Implication: Aligns with market optimism but suggests potential volatility if sentiment shifts. Technical Analysis RSI: Overbought conditions across most timeframes, particularly on the 1h and 4h charts. MACD: Shows bullish momentum. Close to a potential bearish crossover on the daily chart. ADX: Indicates a strong trend on shorter timeframes, supporting the bullish outlook. Bollinger Bands: Price proximity to the upper band on the daily chart warns of a possible pullback. Key Levels: Support: Around $67,500. Resistance: At $69,000. Recommendation: Focus on short-term scalping opportunities while being prepared for potential reversals. Avoid entering long positions at resistance levels and consider shorting if bearish signals strengthen. Summary Given the mixed signals from technical indicators and bullish market sentiment, a cautious approach is warranted. The strategy should capitalize on short-term opportunities while remaining vigilant for signs of a reversal. Monitoring key technical indicators and market sentiment closely will be crucial for successful trades. Trade Recommendation Outcome: OPEN_SHORT Confidence Level: 78% (65%-90%) Current Price: $68,637.99 Stop Loss: $69,200 Take Profit: $67,800 Exit Point: $67,900
Short
by titankarma
BITCOIN is the KING and upward movement is highly expected!Technical analysis and trade plan by Blaž Fabjan Support and Resistance Levels: Resistance Levels: 72,198.87 USDT 68,556.87 USDT 64,591.15 USDT Support Levels: 66,333.98 USDT 61,758.48 USDT 60,301.68 USDT 56,902.49 USDT The key levels indicate potential areas where price action could face resistance or find support, which might serve as entry or exit points. Indicators: Wave Cipher Divergences: Wave Cipher shows divergences suggesting a possible upward momentum. Positive divergences with green dots could imply bullish continuation. Relative Strength Index (RSI): RSI currently reads 55.19, indicating a neutral zone, leaning slightly bullish if it moves towards 60. This suggests Bitcoin isn't overbought or oversold and could continue a gradual trend. Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic shows a value around 70.52, close to the overbought region (above 80). If it breaks further upward, it may signal an overbought state, potentially leading to a correction. Hull Moving Average (HMA): HMA appears to trend slightly downwards, showing a bearish trend in the short term. The value of -6.58 indicates a bearish momentum, which may warn of a potential short-term pullback before any significant uptrend resumes. Price Action: The chart shows a potential breakout attempt around the 66,333.98 USDT level, where price action previously tested and retraced. A consolidation near this level could suggest that bulls are preparing for an upward push, especially if price breaks above 68,556.87 USDT. Volume Analysis: Volume shows a steady, moderate increase, supporting the upward trend. This moderate volume increase without large spikes could imply gradual accumulation rather than distribution. Trading Plan Long Position (Bullish Scenario) Entry: Consider entering a long position if the price breaks and holds above the 68,556.87 USDT resistance level with volume confirmation. Stop Loss: Set a stop loss slightly below the 66,333.98 USDT support level to mitigate risk in case of a false breakout. Targets: Target 1: 72,198.87 USDT — aligns with a strong resistance level and provides a conservative target. Target 2: 75,553.67 USDT — the next significant resistance level, offering a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. Short Position (Bearish Scenario) Entry: Consider shorting if the price fails to hold above 66,333.98 USDT and shows bearish confirmation, such as a breakdown with high volume. Stop Loss: Set a stop loss above 68,556.87 USDT to avoid risks from potential false breakdowns. Targets: Target 1: 61,758.48 USDT — a nearby support level that provides a logical take-profit point. Target 2: 60,301.68 USDT — serves as a secondary target if the bearish trend strengthens. Risk Management: Given the proximity to resistance and support levels, using a risk/reward ratio of 1:2 or higher is advisable to maintain favorable trade setups. Monitor Divergences: Keep an eye on divergences in the Wave Cipher, RSI, and Stochastic Oscillator for potential trend reversals or continuations. News and Market Sentiment: Be mindful of broader market sentiment and news events, as these can influence Bitcoin's price behavior, particularly near key levels. This trading plan provides a structured approach to capitalize on potential breakouts or breakdowns, balancing both bullish and bearish scenarios.
Long
by elfabiiani
1
10.28 Whale Indicator (predicted USD 1200 rise, congratulations)Hello, I'm Whale Signal Through the last point of view, you were able to predict a 1,200-dollar rise and a 1,900-dollar rise We will continue to do our best to analyze trends so that you don't miss useful information that can generate profits despite market volatility First, let's look back on the last analysis In the last analysis, we said that the support line of the white whale indicator would be an important defense point, but it continued to rise with a press at the hour mark There was a very slight departure from the first candle, but the opportunity to buy the retest was again offered within the range of the hand's end, and I told you to keep an eye on the 68.5-69K range if the uptrend continues We explained that this is because this is a section where there is a possibility of disappointing sales if the head-and-shoulder pattern and Dow theory fail to break through the high point As a result, Bitcoin has seen a sharp decline, leaving a tail around 68.7K Those of you who have referenced my analysis have the opportunity to expect a return of about $1,200, and if it has helped you with the sale, I would like to congratulate you from the bottom of my heart Subsequently, a downward break from the support of the white whale indicator at the one-hour bar after receiving resistance led to a drop of about $1,900 in the next candle retest segment In a previous article, I mentioned a strategy of maintaining a loss line in the event of a departure from the white whale indicator, implementing some blade and main liquidation, and continuing to hold the remaining volume For those who have sold under this strategy, it is believed that it would have been possible to liquidate the partial day and the main account However, if further guidance had been made on the support section below, it would have been more profitable There were some regrets due to the long bottom tail, but as a result, I think we shared a good trading strategy Let's move on to today's analysis ⚠️Btcusdt - 1H Bitcoin has been seen going sideways over the weekend in a breathtaking segment Now, a week before the U.S. presidential election, there is a possibility that there will be a move to confirm the direction in the market Currently, Bitcoin appears to be forming a convergence pattern If this convergence is correct that it is progressing, we need to look closely at whether it breaks through the previous high or if it deviates from the previous low or if it can support it without In particular, if the upper resistance trendline and previous high breakthrough are confirmed, more attention will be paid to the important "core interval" in the whale indicator This is because we believe that the key section can be an important gateway to open up new market trends in the future In addition, we will carefully watch for the breakaway from the low, as trading volume has been on the defensive lately, whether it is triangular convergence or not If the trend continues to break lows in Dow theory, we need to focus on the sell-off segments below The whale surface area plans to respond flexibly based on specific trend lines in this situation (I've shared important sales tables that I must check today, so please check them out when you have time.) *I don't share a point of view. It's a personal opinion, and the whale indicator simply points to support and resistance. I hope you guys take a RBI single through the whale indicator in your analysis* *For more detailed analysis and real-time updates, please check the real-time chart sharing guide link below* <> 1. The whale indicator simply points to support and resistance 2. Please refer to the whale index to find a trading RBI suitable for your analysis 3. The shape of the rod finish is important for whale indicators, so checking the closing rod helps with a stable trading strategy 4. Whale surface intensity is in the order of purple > orange > white, with purple surface indicating the strongest support and resistance
by Whale_signal
BTC/USDT.P UpdateNew week, new start. Here we are closing the week without any new bullish momentum which makes me suspect we are gonna need to seek out more liquidity before breaking above this trend line level. I've in this daily tf chart marked potential levels of where it could retrace to. It would be a swing trade or you can see this as potentially building your position before the bull rally starts to finally break that ATH into price discovery. I still think you need to trade with risk management regardless, because there are a lot of potential event volatilities coming up in the near future. I'll be scalping more in streams and swing in these market updates. Trade safely!
Short
by Nate36989
Review for 10/24/2024, how market manipulator take their profit. This article is for reviewing 10/24/2024 short position and stop loss. Unfortunately, it seems that the price has hit my stop-loss line and dropped. However, I have no regrets. Today, I want to talk about the reasons behind my short stop-loss and how market manipulators (often referred to as 'whales') take advantage of traders like us. Let’s start by discussing the Blue wedge pattern. This time, the wedge pattern, Elliott Wave counting, and the support/resistance aspects were solid. There are generally two ways to trade based on the wedge pattern: (Number 1) entering at the top line or (Number 2) entering after the price breaks below the lower line. In the first method, the stop-loss is tight but the profit potential is high, while the second method offers a higher win rate but with a larger stop-loss. In this case, it would have been better to enter using the second approach. this time I entered position at top of the line (red dot 68150) After I entered short position chart move crazy. This is a classic example of market manipulation by whales. (Number 3) The price slightly breaks above the upper wedge line and then drops sharply. Retail traders who entered short positions at the line see the price break above, they close their positions. At this moment, whales fill their own positions and then the price drops immediately. This particular wedge pattern was even more extreme. The price broke above the upper wedge line, dropped back down, it showed a candle that seemed to suggest a move upwards again. (Number 4) Then, it re-entered the wedge pattern, making even more traders open short positions. As more people entered shorts, the whales pushed the price upwards, causing those shorts to hit their stop-losses. The whales then filled their orders with the liquidity from those stop-losses. With this manipulation, they likely made a hefty profit. It's a simple principle but one that manipulators use often to fill their positions. In my case, I noticed the signs of manipulation when the price first dropped and then quickly shot back up, which is when I decided to cut my losses. I stopped out at point Blue spot. In hindsight, I should have exited at breakeven had I been more attentive to the chart. When I sense the presence of manipulators in the market, I prefer to exit because, first, it's impossible to predict which direction the price will go, and second, they often create small candle patterns which can cause immense stress and lead to poor decision-making about the direction.
by hcinteractivegames
100k after election or 6-12-months-Bart Simpson and Bull Flag. Our Current Situation Trading in a consolidating range can be really dangerous, especially if your emotions get the better of you (we have all been there). Hopefully, you have been careful with the risk. Trading a market in consolidation is rarely recommended; however, confidence in our trades should always be the most important factor before entering a position. So if you think it's right—go ahead. But the benefit of high probability is usually a strong challenge for most traders in a consolidating range, which is why it's not recommended by many traders. Continuing on the sub-topic of probabilities, I have learned from both failure and success that having patience is a necessity for good probability trades. This is why I want to zoom out to discuss my thoughts on how to trade the breakout from the current consolidation range. Before we delve into that, I will provide a broader view of the chart. Bull Market (GREEN ARROW) One could argue that we have been in a bull market since November 2022. We have experienced lower lows and higher highs. From October 2023 until March 2024, we’ve had a strong uptrend. However, from March 2024 until today (October 2024), we have been in a consolidating range. As a result, you might ask: Is this range going to break out as a Bart Simpson or bull flag pattern? Bart Simpson Scenario (Bear Target): The market structure in the Bart Simpson pattern is generally characterized by unpredictability and low-liquidity environments, which are often amplified by market manipulation. Unpredictability (Yes): The market sentiment on Twitter and mainstream news seems to be very bullish due to the halving event (which reduces supply and increases scarcity) and the fact that Trump is very pro-Bitcoin (wanting to incorporate BTC as a strategic national reserve)—he is currently leading in the presidential polls. Additionally, geopolitical tensions between nations (Israel and Iran, Russia and Ukraine) are creating discussions about a potential world war. Another topic is inflation. It seems that the market is unsure about which direction to take, confirming some unpredictability in the current range (March 2024 to October 2024). Low Liquidity and Market Manipulation (Yes): The Bart Simpson pattern thrives in low-liquidity environments, where prices can be more easily manipulated. Currently, factors like geopolitical tensions (Israel-Iran, Russia-Ukraine), inflation concerns, and uncertain macro conditions are deterring institutional investors, reducing overall market liquidity. With mostly retail participation and speculation surrounding the Bitcoin halving and Trump’s potential Bitcoin policies, the market is primed for sharp, unpredictable moves. In this environment, “whales” can manipulate prices more easily, prompting a potential sudden reversal. What if we end up creating the Bart Simpson? Price Target, $22,826: Look for shorts from major resistance all the way down to potentially the "Point of Control" (POC) for the current bull run. I will be watching for good swings. Does this mean that the bull market is over? I don’t think so. Touching the Point of Control (POC) is usually a healthy move before a trend continuation. Hence, the bull market will still be in play. The market sentiment may, however, be very dry, but when we get a sharp, strong swing up, FOMO will build, and this is when we will see the price skyrocket to over 100k. Bull Flag Pattern Scenario (Bull Target): A bull flag pattern is typically a continuation pattern in an uptrend. It begins with a strong upward movement (the flagpole), then consolidates or retraces slightly in a downward channel (the flag). After this period of consolidation, it often breaks out to the upside, continuing the trend. All the points above describe the current situation when looking at the chart. We have a pole and a downward channel that retraces slightly downward. There are billions of dollars of liquidity at the LH zones—the area of major resistance—which means we might hit it soon or use it as fuel after reaching the POC (Bart Simpson scenario). Price Target - 100k: If I were to trade the bull flag pattern, I would wait for the higher high (HH) to be broken. This way, I can hold until 100k, depending on how the market dynamics change. PS: Major support could be a good entry price if the dynamics in this hypothesis changes. In other words, the bart simpson pattern does not play out.
Long
by Mrketwizard
Eyes on BTC since Jan 2023 BTC has been up, It’s trading near all-time highs and not showing any weakness. I’m expecting seek-and-destroy (S&D) formation by market makers. Where buyers and sellers are taken out, you’ll notice millions being liquidated in the crypto world. This can occur after the US election. Once S&D is over makers will push prices accordingly. At the moment most BTC holders are in profit after engineering lows makers can buy it at a discount why I’m expecting S&D? when the price is near ATHs or ATLs and a big news event is nearby market makers tend to create an S&D situation where at some point normal retailers believe the price will continue further and at some point they will expect a reversal. In a way, retailers are taken out resulting in the market maker’s favor. So the last bearish leg can be their best buying opportunity if market makers want it to pump further
Long
by zanymmxm