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BTCUSD Swing Short | Fading Supply Spike- 4H Liquidity BreakdownBTC retraced into the 4H liquidity breakdown zone at 96,111.6. Bulls failed to absorb supply here, confirming structural weakness. Price spiked into this zone but rejected, setting up a swing short opportunity. This rejection lacked conviction, driven by late longs chasing into thin liquidity. The setup isn’t about momentum—it’s about exploiting the structural fragility where stretched positions collapse. "Entry Price: 95,300.0 – Fading the Supply Spike (Limit Order Pre-Loaded)" "SL: 96,150.0 – Supply Absorption Invalidation (8,500 Ticks Risk @ 0.01 Tick Size)" "TP: 92,000.0 – Structure Rebuild Zone (33,000 Ticks Reward @ 0.01 Tick Size)" "RRR: 3.88R Skewed Outcome (Pre-Fee)" "Net RRR After Fees: 3.56R" Expected stop loss is 850.0 USD range on price, translating to 1.70 USDT risk on my 0.002 BTC size. Expected take profit is 3,300.0 USD range on price, yielding 6.60 USDT reward. Total fees estimated at 0.07492 USDT if TP hits, 0.13427 USDT if SL hits. Net reward after fees is 6.52508 USDT, net loss after fees is 1.83427 USDT, yielding a final net reward-to-risk ratio of 3.56R. Contextual layers: "Liquidity Breakdown: 96,111.6 – Bulls Failed to Absorb Supply, Breakdown Confirmed" "POC: 94,500.0 – Microstructure Breakdown Trigger" "Bull/Bear Inflection: 91,911.8 – Critical for Macro Sentiment" "London Open: 91,828.5 – Support Impulse Level" Conviction weighting: ADX rising above 22 confirms trend strength weakening into resistance. RSI divergence highlights momentum exhaustion with price making higher highs, but RSI printing lower highs. Open interest rising into supply suggests late long positioning, primed for failure as structure collapses. This is a structural exploitation setup. Monitoring price behavior for confirmation or invalidation as liquidity thins.
Short
by Kyle_Booth
Looking to Short Bitcoin if Key Support FailsFrom a short-term perspective, the instrument is in a well-defined uptrend, so shorting at current levels doesn’t make much sense. It’s better to wait for signs of weakness — specifically, when price starts to move lower and breaks below the initial local lows. In this case, the key zone to watch is the narrow range between 91,911 and 91,631. If price begins to break below that range, a short setup becomes valid, with the first target at 82,953–82,753. The final target is 74,565–74,456. For now, though, price is still moving upward and could continue higher. Wait for confirmation before taking any position.
Short
by nlt_group
BTC - Halving Cycle | Historical Patterns & 2025-2026 Projection In this chart, we dive deep into the cyclical nature of Bitcoin price action post-halving and draw parallels between past and current movements, with a specific focus on how the market has historically reacted at various intervals following each halving event. This analysis incorporates both structural and temporal elements, providing a potential roadmap based on previous behavior. --- Historical Context: Previous Cycles 3rd Halving – May 11, 2020 Following the 3rd Bitcoin halving, we observed a parabolic run-up over the next several months: - 11 months after halving (April 2021): BTC reached a major peak, hitting nearly $65,000. - This was followed by a significant correction. - 19 months after halving (December 2021): Bitcoin printed a second top close to the previous all-time high, forming a classic double top pattern. This structure often signals market exhaustion and precedes deeper corrections. Cycle Completion – Price Reversion By 30 months after the 3rd halving (around November 2022), BTC had retraced much of its gains and returned to prices nearly equivalent to the halving level (~$8,000–$10,000 zone in log-adjusted terms). This marked the end of the cycle, confirming a full reversion to the mean after the double-top distribution phase. --- Current Cycle: 4th Halving – April 19, 2024 We're now entering the 4th post-halving cycle , and so far, the structure appears to be rhyming closely with the previous cycle : - Pre-halving rally took BTC to ~ FWB:73K (March 2024), indicating strong bullish momentum leading into the event. - If this cycle follows a similar path, we may expect: - A first major top around 9 months after the halving , potentially at or above $100K. - A second top forming around 17 months after the halving (projected for September 2025), possibly signaling the beginning of a broader correction phase. --- Projection: October 2026 (30 Months After Halving) Using the same temporal framework: - By October 2026 (30 months post-halving), the chart suggests a return to a much lower level , possibly around $50K. - This projection mimics the post-double-top decline of the previous cycle, reinforcing the idea of cyclical mean reversion . - It’s important to note: this isn’t necessarily bearish, but it highlights the cyclical and psychological nature of markets —boom, euphoria, distribution, and reversion. --- The Macro View: Halving Cycles Are Rhythmic - Every halving has historically set off a new bull run, but the timing of tops and bottoms is shockingly consistent : - Peaks often occur 9–18 months post-halving . - Full cycle completion is around 30 months post-halving. - These cycles are heavily influenced by supply shocks , market psychology , and macro liquidity cycles . --- Final Thoughts This chart isn’t a guarantee—it’s a probability model based on cyclical symmetry. If history repeats or rhymes, we may be witnessing another textbook cycle play out, where a euphoric run in 2025 gives way to a deep correction by late 2026. Stay alert for the double top pattern and macro divergences. Just as in 2021, timing the exit after the first peak can be the difference between profit and pain . What do you think? Will Bitcoin follow the same 30-month post-halving trajectory?
by Louigi_24
68
$BTC: Last 2 months pump before the bear market starts.On the chart, you can clearly see the similarities between the last cycle and the current one. First, this cycle is already longer, so I don’t expect another top in 2026, as some are suggesting. Based on my analysis, we are currently in the equivalent stage of the last cycle where two strong monthly candles appeared before the market dropped into a bear phase. Why is this happening? We are resetting the weekly MACD — it's at the bottom and needs to push into overbought territory before it can turn down alongside the monthly MACD. As shown in the chart, the monthly MACD is close to turning bearish. If the weekly MACD also flips bearish, that could mark the end of the bull market. Additionally, volume is dropping, and the RSI supports this scenario. It looks like we’re setting up for one last pump, just like last time — likely followed by a rejection in 2 months. 📊 Check the chart — I’ve laid it out as clearly as possible. 💬 If you agree or disagree, let’s discuss in the comments! 🧠 DYOR — Do Your Own Research! #Bitcoin #CryptoAnalysis #MACD #RSI #CryptoCycle #BullMarket #BearMarket #BTC #CryptoTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #DYOR #Altcoins #MarketUpdate #CryptoCommunity #Cryptocurrency
by CryptoNikkoid
7
#BTC Complex consolidation phase📊#BTC Complex consolidation phase📊 🧠Currently in the resistance zone, but the trend direction is bullish. We are doing narrow fluctuations in the range of 91800-95000. There are some contradictions between the long and short positions here. If we want to participate in new transactions, we must wait until the absolute support and resistance levels. ➡️If it falls below the first support zone near 91800, then we need to pay attention to the second support zone of 88000-89000 ➡️We need to wait for the structure to become clearer before looking for new trading opportunities. 🤜If you like my analysis, please like💖 and share💬 BITGET:BTCUSDT.P
Short
by wolf_king888
#BTC #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #BITCOIN #Wyckoff #Analysis #Eddy#BTC #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #BITCOIN #Wyckoff #Analysis #Eddy This analysis is based on the analytical style of the Wyckoff Distribution Structure of Schematics 1 and 2. I have outlined for you the important parts of the Wyckoff style on the one-hour timeframe. Currently, we are in Phase C of the Wyckoff Distribution Structure. We have to wait for the completion of this phase and the start of Phase D of the Wyckoff Distribution Structure. When will this structure be fully confirmed? When the Bitcoin price falls to the 91800 support and gathers the final spring when this support is broken for the fall, we will enter a short position by getting the necessary confirmations based on our style and strategy. 💬 Note: It is not exactly clear whether the market maker will act based on Schematic 1 or 2, so the best entry point for short positions will be the 91800 support break. If, based on the schematic 1, the Bitcoin price UTAD and test formed, high-risk traders who are willing to trade in the opposite direction can enter a short position by getting confirmation in the time frames below 15 minutes. Where will the targets be? The first target is 62000 and the second target can be 46000 dollars. When can you safely close the position and enter a reverse trade, that is, long or buy? When a Wyckoff accumulation structure is formed at one of the targets. The responsibility for the trade is yours and I have no responsibility for your failure to comply with the risk and capital management. Good luck and be profitable. I also invite you to review and view my latest analysis on Bitcoin via the link below: For altcoins, follow my analysis on the Total 3 chart. My analysis of the Total 3 chart:
Short
by Eddy_Trade_
#BTC reaches weekly resistance zone, cautiously bullish📊#BTC reaches weekly resistance zone, cautiously bullish⚠️ 🧠From a structural point of view, after we broke through the resistance zone at the daily level, the resistance zone turned into a support zone, so after the price fell back to this support zone, I participated in some long trades. The interim target is around 90,000, so I chose to close all positions after reaching here. ➡️In general, my mind is still in the shock trading, so I don’t look forward to the goal too far. Because we haven’t built a long structure at the daily level, we still need to be vigilant. ➡️Currently we have reached the resistance zone at the weekly level, don’t chase the rise here. We can look for some short signals in this area to participate. ⚠️Note that the large level belongs to the long trend, the correction at the daily level is over, and it is possible to start the upward trend at the daily level. Try to focus on long trades. Let’s take a look👀 🤜If you like my analysis, please like💖 and share💬 BITGET:BTCUSDT.P
Short
by wolf_king888
Supply Chain Breakdown Reloaded: Fading the BTC Spike at RejectiBTCUSDT 15m — Short Thesis anchored in supply exhaustion and structural inefficiency. Price surged into the Rejection Liquidity (RL) Zone between 94,716.4–94,722.9, where repeated rejection wicks and elevated sell-side volume confirmed supply reloading. Bulls failed to absorb overhead liquidity, signaling vulnerability for a structural fade. This is a pre-loaded limit short, positioned for One Shot, One Kill, targeting asymmetric downside with strictly defined risk parameters. Trade Details: Entry Price: 94,750.0 Pre-set limit beneath RL zone, fading the supply spike at exhaustion. Stop-Loss (OG SL): 95,100.0 Supply absorption invalidation. Tick distance: 350 ticks (risk exposure: 0.70 USDT). Take-Profit (OG TP): 91,700.0 Targeting the Structure Rebuild Zone where demand could reassert control. Tick distance: 3,050 ticks (reward potential: 6.10 USDT). Risk-Reward Ratio: 8.71 : 1 Engineered for extreme asymmetry, capturing downside inefficiency while minimizing capital at risk. Position Details: Pair: BTCUSDT Perpetuals Direction: Short Leverage: 100x Isolated Position size: 0.002 BTC Margin used: 189.50 USDT Execution time: 2025-04-25 23:57:01 Fee structure: Entry fee: 0.0379 USDT (≈2% of margin) Exit fee (estimated): ~0.04 USDT Expected Outcomes: If stop-loss hits: ~0.74 USDT total loss (risk + fees). If take-profit hits: ~6.02 USDT net gain (post fees). Structural Context: Rejection Liquidity (RL) Zone: 94,716.4–94,722.9 Supply apex. Bulls must reclaim or face breakdown. Point of Control (POC) – Critical Pivot Point (PP): 94,400.0 Breakdown trigger. A move below confirms bearish continuation. Bull/Bear S/R Flip (Macro Inflection): 91,631.5 Wider structural pivot. If tested, it validates extended downside momentum. Risk Management Note: Trade positions are tightly managed with low capital exposure for the purpose of stress testing system robustness under 100x leverage on lower timeframes (LTF). The focus is on validating mechanical execution and structural thesis under high-leverage conditions, ensuring precision risk control and adaptability in volatile environments. Narrative: BTC’s parabolic drive into supply stalls at RL, confirming exhaustion via sell-side volume. This setup fades that weakness, targeting structural inefficiency unwind while enforcing strict risk protocols. Defined risk. Asymmetric reward. No ambiguity. One shot. One kill.
Short
by Kyle_Booth
BTC TO THE MOON! or no?)I am closely analyzing Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent price action following its decisive break above the critical $88,700 resistance level. This breakout has shifted market dynamics, and several scenarios now appear plausible based on current structure and momentum: Pullback and Continuation: BTC may experience a corrective move back to the $88,000–$89,000 zone, likely retesting the breakout level as support. For this bullish scenario to remain valid, BTC must reclaim and close above the prior monthly high (PMH) by the end of the current monthly candle, signaling strong buyer commitment and paving the way for further upside. Immediate Advance with Later Correction: Alternatively, BTC could continue its ascent toward the PMH, potentially encountering resistance at this key level. A rejection here might trigger a retracement to the $88,000–$89,000 range, where buyers could step in to defend the newly established support. Bearish Breakdown: Should BTC fail to hold above $88,000, a breakdown below this level could accelerate selling pressure, targeting the $83,000 region. Such a move would likely liquidate a significant number of leveraged long positions, amplifying volatility and potentially resetting the market for a deeper correction. At the time of this analysis, BTC is trading at approximately $91,234, with a 24-hour high of $91,898 and a low of $90,123 as of April 24, 2025, reflecting heightened volatility post-breakout. Traders should monitor price action around the aforementioned levels, particularly the $88,000–$89,000 zone and the PMH, as these will be critical in determining the next directional move. Risk management remains paramount in this high-probability setup.
Long
by Almenio
BTC- crash is coming? Most likely no)In its best traditions, bitcoin in one impulse reached the monthly target 95000, which I wrote about The probability of a correction to set a higher low in the equilibrium area of the range is increasing. Probably in May the crypto market will have to pass the last stability test, in case of success we will get excellent opportunities for spot and speculative positions before the next cyclical growth spiral. For now have to wait for weekly open but there are 2 options: pump till PWH and then move on correction slow bleeding till 0.5 or mb till 83k in worst case and then pump to ATH
Long
by Almenio
BITCOIN SHORT SETUP ALL trading ideas have entry point + stop loss + take profit + Risk level. hello Traders, here is the full analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied. Please also refer to the Important Risk Notice linked below. Disclaimer BTC SHORT SETUP ENTRY : 96400 PROFIT : 88174.9 STOP : 98812.8
Short
by bullstraders7