USDTHB trade ideas
Can Anyone Help Me???If you have experience with Elliott Wave Theory I would really love your insight and feedback. Does this look right? I ran Fib Retracement and then Fib Extention. Is this a good projection or should I go back further and start over with a new count?
USD/THB 1H Chart: Bearish momentumThe US Dollar has been depreciating against the Thai Baht in a short-term descending channel after the exchange rate reversed from the upper boundary of a long-term descending channel at 33.05.
As apparent on the chart, the currency pair has breached the support level formed by a combination of the 100– and 200-period SMAs (4H). Given this fact, it is likely that the downside momentum still prevails in the nearest time. The most probable downside target during the following trading sessions is the Fibonacci 50.00% retracement at 32.31.
In the unlikely event that some bullish pressure still prevails in the market, the US Dollar should not exceed the Fibonacci 23.60% retracement at 32.94.
USDTHB = Up onlyCome on, for a country that lives off tourist and foreigner investment, THB is stronger than JPY and CHF against USD?????? This is a no brainner, up it is, targer 33.8-34.2 to be inline with the rest of the world.
Target hit. Now reversing on a Channel Down. Short.TP = 33.600 hit as the previous 1D Channel Up aggressively broke to the upside (as indicated by the 4H consolidation mentioned on the previous post) and peaked at 34.650. Now a new 1D Channel Down has emerged (RSI = 30.614, MACD = -0.139, Highs/Lows = -0.2244, B/BP = -0.4740) aiming at a Lower Low near the 31.850 support. We are short with TP = 32.000.
USD/THB 1H Chart: Potential reversalThe Thai Baht has been appreciating against the US Dollar since the end of August. This movement is bounded by a descending channel.
Currently, the currency pair is trading near the lower channel line at 32.43. From the theoretical point of view, the pair could reverse from the lower boundary of given channel and aim for the resistance cluster formed by a combination of the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs in the 32.60/32.73 range. An important resistance level to look out for is the Fibonacci 38.20% retracement at 32.59.
Technical indicators for the 1W time-frame also support bullish scenario.
USDTHB Dailysell limit;
tp1=33.0000 RR=1;
tp2=32.7500 RR=2;
notice:
1:Risk free after tp1;
2:all lines and orders have a few tolerance!!;
Bearish Engulfing confirm USD/THB Daily Chart go down.USD/THB confirm break down after price below 33.18 and you can increase follow short again if price break down 32.58
USD/THB 1H Chart: Reveal of dominant patternThe previous review of the USD/THB currency exchange rate concentrated on the newly formed less steep bullish pattern. On Tuesday, the pattern was still in force, as the currency exchange rate was declining in the borders of it.
However, something else attracted the attention of Dukascopy Analytics. Namely, a long term, large scale channel up pattern was spotted on the larger time frame charts. It might be possible that in the near future the bounce off from this trend line forces the rate lower and gives it enough strength to break the medium scale ascending pattern.
However, in the short term watch the support of the 55-hour simple moving average, which clearly provided support on Tuesday.
BUY LIMIT AT STRONG DEPARTURE DZ AFTER BROKE TRENDLINE
BUY LIMIT AT STRONG DEPARTURE DZ AFTER BROKE TRENDLINE
Consolidation before Channel Up continuation. Long.USDTHB should enter a consolidation phase on 4H (as seen on the Rectangle with high volatility, ATR = 0.0861) in order to bring down the overbought values on the most recent bullish run on the 1D Channel Up (RSI = 72.893, Williams = -12.000). The suggested course of action is to buy on every dip within the Rectangle, TP = 33.600.
Possible sell opportunity coming up on USDTHBIf the price drops a sell signal (bearish reversal candle) at the upcoming resistance level then expect prices to go down
USDTHB. Triangular consolidation is possible.This pair broke above the long term resistance (yellow) last month.
EM currencies suffer a lot these days amid strong dollar and rising yields.
USDTHB could finish triangular consolidation soon.
The target for the further rise of USDTHB is set within the orange box at the 0.382-0.618 Fibonacci.
Wait if price could break above the triangle's upside.
USD/THB 1H Chart: Bears expected to prevailThe US Dollar has been trading in an ascending channel against the Thai Baht for the last two months. This has guided the pair from its 2014/2018 low of 31.10 towards the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement at 32.20.
From theoretical point of view, the pair has failed to form a new high this week which might be an early indication of a new wave down. In case the senior channel and the 200-hour SMA are breached at 31.97, the Greenback is likely to depreciate even further down to the 38.20% Fibo.
Given that these retracement lines have worked effectively at reversing the pair during the last week, it is likely that the pair continues respecting this junior channel and therefore reverses back to the upside. The general direction should nevertheless remain south.
Meanwhile, there is still some upside potential in the market that could result in a test of the monthly R3 at 32.30 within the remaining part of this week.
USDTHB Reversal-14 Week Common turn
-Weekly Bollinger band squeeze
-Daily 30EMA resistance fail
-Could take time to play out
20 basis points of risk planned
Am a buyer on daily break and close of upper boundary
USD/THB Breaks long term SMAsThere is something about the USD/THB pair that you can observe only by changing the time frames of the charts while having set up them to show the 200-period simple moving average.
Namely, the most important is the fact that the currency exchange rate has passed the 200-day SMA, which has kept the pair lower since the start of 2017. In addition, the four hour time frame 200-period simple moving average has recently been broken.
As a result of these moves in a combination with the passing of the weekly R1, the rate began a surge. The surge is set to be paused by a monthly pivot point at 31.30. However, above that there is almost nothing until 31.40.
USD/THB: Recovery coming...The near term chart shows all signs of a bullish breakout. Clearing 31.303 triggers a new (intraday) uptrend towards 31.54, 31.81 and perhaps a tat higher. Such a rally is nevertheless classified as a counter trend rally within the longer term down trend. moreover, it will be the first noteworthy recovery since the down trend commenced in Q4-2016<>Q1-2017. Weekly resistance levels come in at 31.58, 31.91 up to 32.30.
So despite the significant upside potential the overall trend remains negative for the USD. Buying is justifiable but with elevated risk; no certainty that the projections will me reached and trading against the main trend. So much needs to be done to change the long term trend that we won't go into that now.
Near term trend: neutral (positive > 31.303
Long term trend: negative
Outlook: recovery likely
Strategy: exit-short and/or trading-buy
Support: 31.107 / 30.858*
Resistance: 31.303 / 31.54 / 31.58 / 31.91 / 32.30+
Outlook cancelled/neutralized: below 31.107
