USDTRY-SELL strategyNo change in view.
We should see lower short-term back to 14.00, but medium-term we should drift higher 15.50-16.50.
The long-term is SELL strategy for a move to 10.50-9.00 after we have seen 15.50-16.50 first.
USDTRY trade ideas
USDTRY- 18Mar2022USDTRY- 18Mar2022
USDTRY bounced back once again, confirming above the 3MAs on all the time frame. Price action also broke above parallel channel on the H1.
With reference to daily, price is more likely to bounce higher to 1st Resistance at 15.18 after it can clear H4 78.6% Fib at 14.880 today.
This is for personal record purposes only, not financial advise or solicitation of trade.
USDTRY-SELL strategySlowly we are moving back to 14.00 as expected.
The overall view is not changed. Short-term we likely will go south 14.00 and then expect upwards again tackling 15.50-16.00.
For medium-term players (and long-term) we are SHORT still and we add further SELL @ 15.50-16.50. The monthly chart is very overbought and still has not corrected. This means we have potential to go back 10.50-9.00 again. I suspect this may take 3-6 months.
USDTRY- 17Mar2022USDTRY- 17Mar2022
Price have confirmed below the MAs in both H1 and H4 to drop lower to daily support around 14.28. If the price can bounce back to H4 1st Resistance at 14.700, we could expect price to face bearish pressure at this level.
This is for personal record purposes only, not financial advise or solicitation of trade.
USD/TRY: Turkish economy continues to suffer lossesCurrent trend
The USD/TRY pair is declining amid the aggravation of the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe, currently trading at 14.6460.
Although Turkey is taking active steps towards a possible settlement of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, acting as a mediator in the negotiation process, the country's economy continues to suffer losses. Yesterday, the head of the Turkish Association of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, Simone Kaslowski, said that since the beginning of the conflict, the national economy has already lost more than $40B due to various restrictions. Recent macroeconomic data indirectly confirm it. Thus, the volume of retail sales decreased by 1.5%, and in annual terms, the growth of the indicator slowed down to 7.9% from 13.0% in the previous period. According to the official, inflation in the country will not fall below 60% by the end of the year.
The USD Index is holding at the same levels, around 98.800, amid expectations of the US Federal Reserve meeting, the results of which will be known today. Judging by the numerous statements by regulator officials, the interest rate will be increased by at least 25 basis points. It will not immediately impact inflation, which could act as a deterrent for the dollar. Investors will also be watching today for retail sales data, which is expected to rise 0.4% in February, which is rather subdued given January's 3.8% rise.
Support and resistance
The asset is growing within a global upward wave. Technical indicators keep a strong buy signal: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator remains wide and directed upwards, while the histogram of the AO oscillator remains high in the buy zone, despite the formation of local down bars.
Resistance levels: 14.9800, 16.5800.
Support levels: 14.0800, 12.7300.
USDTRY-SELL strategyShort-term still overbought, and there is a likely chance of moving back to 14.00 short-term.
The OIL price does places pressure on the TRY and it is possible after the short-term decline, that we may try higher levels once again. We may see 15.50-16.50 again, and these are medium-term sell levels for a move back to 10.50-9.00.
Short USDTRYPrice to find its way back to the EMA. Watching my FIB level 0.5 / 0.618 for price action and entry.
USDTRY- 15Mar2022USDTRY- 15Mar2022
On the H1, USDTRY have broke out of a triangle with upside target of around 15.1700. We could expect price to bounce higher to that level in the next few days.
This is for personal record purposes only, not financial advise or solicitation of trade.
USDTRY-SELL strategyThe market does not show much movement for USDTRY, but looking at the market condition, it is more likely we see lower levels to come short-term. The market is slightly overbought for short-term time frame.
Strategy SELL current @ 14.80-14.85 for a move back to 13.98.
The mdium-term picture suggest higher and we may see 15.50-16.50. I would be rather SELL in rally, and would be short overall for a medium-term move to 10.50-9.00.
USDTRY-MIXED down sideWe are starting to look topping out and I feel a SELL at current 14.75-15.00 makes sense for short-term.
For the medium-term we may see higher at first, likely 15.50-16.50 and that would be good SELL entry for a move towards 10.50 - 9.00. we are established above the cloud but has support 13.98 somewhere.
USDTRY- 14Mar2022USDTRY- 14Mar2022
On the weekly, USDTRY have been on an uptrend since closing above previous pivot at 13.90. The next resistance will be at 15.1700.
On the H4, price pulled back unexpectedly after Stochastic hit resistance last Friday. Overall price is expected to bounce higher to 1st Resistance at 15.1700.
This is for personal record purposes only, not financial advise or solicitation of trade.
USDTRY-SELL strategyWe are building up upwards momentum a bit, and one could expect 15-50-16.50 to be reached in the near term, is my personal view. I am not a supporter of going long, because of costs factors associated with longs.
The daily chart is overbought, and we should see a move back towards 14.00 once again.
The weekly chart is kind-of neutral to upside, and not extremely overbought as yet.
The monthly chart is way overdone, but history shows we had more severe levels.
Summing up strategy: short-term SELL current 14.850-15.00 and take profit 14.00.
medium-term to long term SELL 14.85 and 15.50 plus 16.50 for a move back towards 10.50 - 9.00 (even possible I think).
Fundamentally the larger move down will take time due to the ongoing situation.
USDTRY 12H (can stable at upward zone above 14.40)USD vs Turkish-lira can make an upward zone above the resistance zone so the direction still now is upward
USDTRY LONGH4 CHART - PARALLEL CHANNEL UPTREND
If you think my analyzes are successful and meaningful, please contribute by commenting and liking.
USDTRY- 10Mar2022USDTRY- 10Mar2022
On the daily, price closed above previous highs at 14.60. We could expect to price to bounce higher to resistance at 15.83
On the H4, price closed above previous pivot at 14.60 and is now bouncing up higher. We could expect price to continue bouncing to 1st Resistance at 14.86 and face bearish pressure at this level.
This is for personal record purposes only, not financial advise or solicitation of trade.
USDTRY-SELL strategyShort-term we are overbought again, and yes, it will kind of reflect weakness in RUB and other currencies in the area.
I feel, we may see correction back 14.00, so SELL current levels and take back at 14.00.
medium-term ADD 14.75 and higher levels 15.50-16.50 for a medium term return 10.50-9.00.
USDTRY-NEUTRAL upside biasNo real change in view.
Fundamentally weakness of TRY may set in for good reasons. The OIL price increase may put upward pressure on USDTRY and is dragged by other weakening currencies due to the ongoing crisis. However, this is the short-term view, and may pose an opportunity for medium-term players to go SHORT at higher levels.
in terms of the market conditions, we may see 14.75 > 15.50-16.00 and those are the SELL strategy levels I would be after for the medium term decline towards 10.50 - 9.00. this is not agreed upon by quite some connections, but as stated for the last one month, the OVERBOUGHT STATE is very high and this requires correction. That is why I see it as a reasonable technical view personally.
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USDTRY- 08Mar2022USDTRY- 08Mar2022
On the H4, price is nearing 1st Resistance at 14.600. We will have to wait and see how price react at this level.
This is for personal record purposes only, not financial advise or solicitation of trade.
