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U.S. Dollar / Turkish Lira

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USDTRY trade ideas

USDTRY - PLEASE SELL ONLY ON BOUNCEIt was a bloodbath day yesterday. Reaching high 13.08 and then a low 11.2800. The overall view still the same, we will continue to gravitate lower, but with violent up and downs. I expect some correction to 12.3500, however, sell between 11.80 - 12.35 for the move towards 10.05. The weekly RSI near 90.0 and the daily has come off a bit, but still not enough to neutralize the indicator. I feel we may even see 9.0000 medium-term as a possibility. just be careful and sell in small increments. Do lift some positions at around 11.25 for re-selling purposes and to improve averages.
Short
by peterbokma
USD TRY analizI discovered that each time %50 retracement happened. This is an extended impulse wave 5 and instead of 161.80 increase it went up to 261.80% compared to wave 3 length. Or 361.80% compared to wave 4 length. In my opinion 5th wave can not extend more than this. (if it does, it would target 14.70, fundementally it looks not possible now but long term it is possible)This is why it stopped exactly at that fib level. Yes, TRY devalued so much but it still did this with EW rules. I expect correction to at least 11, then 10. From 10 I would expect reversal upside long term. I live in Istanbul so I feel destroyed and no hope left. Economy destroyed by one man. I am very frustrated
by baris3
3
USDTRY- SELL and SELLI know it's scary, and the reasons are clear. The Turkish Central Bank actions under high inflation and the response by the leadership has placed the financial market community in a rage and fear mode. However, herd mentality does not always pay, and as shrewd investors, we should take a logical approach to the market. Use technique and a dose of common sense. The USDTRY no doubt has declined in value 40% and during the month 20%. No doubt due to the fundamental state and the show stage. The reality is, we have RSI 96.5 Daily chart, and way above the BB. The weekly chart same, RSI almost 92.0 and also way above the BB. The steepness of the move up is to sharp and steep, and no commodity, currency or anything that is traded, can remain being that way, unless the authorities change the currency and replace it with something else. However, this does not happen often, and in doing so, there will be an exchange of value to replace. Anyway, this is not what we should expect, and I feel the central bank may change course completely, and increase interest rates suddenly in large scale. During the time of the EMS the French central bank defended the Franc by raising interest rates to 1000%. That is why, be careful in shorting the TRY as it can correct swiftly in the same magnitude as it has lost its value. The true value is not current 12.65, and rather 10.05 is where it should go to and then the market can re-access the direction. Strategy is simply, sell anywhere 12.00 - 13.00 in small increments and the average will pay-off big time. Remember, interest rates are still high and can increase without warning. Inflation is near 20% and having a real interest rate below inflation rate is uncommon. The devaluation will help Turkey also to bring in tourist money as this is extremely cheap place to go on holiday now.
Short
by peterbokma
4
USDTRYon monthly frame with Fibonacci level we will find that 13.01 represent strong resistance , last two month the government let the currency fail without any intervene , am sure the Turkish national bank will start offer new government bonds to contain the situation , its a good time in my opinion to short this pair while retail start getting heavy long position , this is risky but am willing to short it ,especially that i know the government control the national bank and its gonna try to put the crisis into bed before any further political damage with election in sight
Short
by Adel_Tunisi
USDTRY - PLEASE SELL SELL ONLYI know what you think... a 9.8% move just one day. As said before, small increments selling USDTRY, but I fully understand the rocket move we are facing. The Daily RSI 97.0 now (unheard of) and Weekly almost 91.0. The last time this happened, the correction was 2.5 points, so the 10.13 objective is still valid. The same happen with USDITL and DEMITL long time ago. Capital outflows due to capita restrictions rumors etc were causing the market scare with similar RSI and price movements. I do not change view and see this as opportunity albeit a small position only as its scary movements no doubt.
Short
by peterbokma
2