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U.S. Dollar / Turkish Lira

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USDTRY trade ideas

full analysisThis analysis may be right or wrong. I always hope for the best and the best for the Turkish people, but my analysis is based on data only and not on wishes and the rules of Elliott science. This time frame is three months, which means a large frame and its implementation needs many years. The currency rose in one large extended wave and made wave two, and it is expected to end in the next wave three, and it will be yellower than wave one at approximately 50% Fibonacci at the shaded area
by KhaldHegazy
6
USDTRY-Long-term SELLFor sure some comments coming my way. I remain from a technical perspective to be SHORT @ anywhere 18.00-21.00 for a move below 15.00. The election is coming soon, and any major change may bring the pair much lower. Further, RSI extreme, and MACD is actually negative for the monthly chart. I understand previous comments that it is not good for the country to have lower exchange rate, but all am saying we need to relieve the pressure long-term to trade in the 11.00 - 15.00 range before we move beyond 20.00 confidently.
Short
by peterbokma
2
USDTRY- SELL Long-TermIt is very nice to receive so many comments on this pair. Some are kind of less polite, but that's no issue since all we are trying to do is to create technical analysis. The pair has been climbing artificially (manipulated) for many months now. The RSI is way beyond the technical dreams on the monthly chart, and this suggest highly a correction back to 15.00 > 10.00 area. The May 14 elections will be the catalyst, and any major change in the current state, means USDTRY will GAP open to trade below 15.00. The rest market will adjust it slowly towards 11.00 eventhough ultimately we will see 9.50. this all sounds incredible, but remember change of central bank policy and government, would mean higher interest rates to fight inflation etc and this will support the currency by then. Anyway, my viewpoint which for sure will attract the usual comments. Welcome to write your comments and/or your own chart and forecast,.
Short
by peterbokma
2
How to be careful against manipulation while trading Forex?It all started on the morning of December 20, 2021. The "Up Tick Rule" was implemented for one day in the stock market. The Up Tick Rule is an application that reduces the declines caused by short selling in stocks and is implemented to limit selling pressure. The implementation method of this rule is that even though the capital market instrument subject to short selling can be realized at a price higher than the last transaction price, the short selling transaction can also be made at the last transaction price level if the last transaction price of the capital market instrument subject to short selling is higher than the previous price. Thus, with the implementation of this rule, the possibility of the dollar falling is minimized. The dollar is raised up to 18.36 Turkish liras. At 18:15, after the daytime market closed, the manipulation began. On the evening of December 20, 2021, the Central Bank started selling dollars through public banks at very low exchange rates. The aim was to transfer capital to some of the supporters by selling the Central Bank's dollars for less than 10 Turkish liras, but the dollar only fell to 12.49 Turkish liras. Because an investor who was unaware of this operation bought $1.5 billion at an average rate of 12.50 Turkish liras. Since the Central Bank had exhausted its selling limit for that day, it couldn't sell any more dollars. Thus, the operation remained incomplete. With the panic that started in the market, BIST presented an announcement for approval at 09:25 on the morning of December 21, 2021. A trap was set for stock market investors to complete the operation. At 09:46 (16 minutes after the opening of the stock exchange), the approval of the announcement was published on KAP. In this announcement, the limit for selling dollars at a discount of up to 10% was increased to 80%. However, during the 16-minute period before investors learned of this decision, the Central Bank's dollar reserves, which had started selling at 18.22 Turkish liras on the new day, had already been sold down to the level of 3.65 Turkish liras. (Although this level of 3.65 Turkish liras may not be visible on the Tradingview chart, data is available on applications such as Bloomberg Terminal and Matriks.) The identity of those who had prior knowledge and purchased dollars at almost no cost is unknown. The Central Bank has been robbed, and those who were aware of the operation have made large profits, while others have lost their money and assets. Instead of protecting investors against manipulation, it looks like SPK and BIST have facilitated the setting of traps for them. The most basic thing we can do to protect ourselves against such manipulations is to be vigilant when buying and selling currencies of countries with low credibility.
by YavuzAkbay
1
A Simple but Effective USDTRY Trading StrategyThe USDTRY pair tends to be extremely volatile, and hence it brings many scalping opportunities. On the sell side, and on the hourly chart, you need to keep an eye on EMA-200, EMA-25, trading volume, its MA, and a few important points of time during the day. Zoom into the chart. By 7:00 AM UTC (sometimes 8:00 AM), a significant trading volume spike above its MA line usually occurs and is followed by consolidation above the EMA-25 ahead of breaching it. By breaching the EMA-25, USDTRY usually breaks significantly below the EMA-200. A trader may enter a sell position as the USDTRY breaches the EMA-25 and close their position after nearly 4,000 ticks below the closing price of the 7:00 AM candle. On the buy side, the move tends to be much faster. After that long bearish candle that breaks below the EMA-200, a long bullish candle usually forms with an opening price that is nearly identical to the closing price of that bearish candle. This bullish candle usually forms between 21:00-23:00. This move usually targets the EMA-25, about 4,000-8,000 ticks above the opening price of the bullish candle. These strategies above seem to be intuitive for many traders. However, the previous patterns are usually followed by a significant amount of volatility. So, prudent risk management must be taken into account. I would appreciate your opinion and I would be very thankful if you can cheer my account up a little :)
Education
by SamerHa
3
USDTRY-Long-Term SELL strategyIt clearly is a managed float and for that reason it has not gone lower or higher. The technical picture suggests we will return back towards 11.00-11.25 in the medium to long-term. On a short-term basis, looking at daily and weekly chart, we are clearly above 16.30 and this needs to be violated for a move south for now. The long-term strategy is remain or go short 18.60-18.90 for a move to 11.2500 for now, but noting it is very controlled and it may take quite some time for it to happen. Perhaps a short on day move as we have witnessed in the past.
Short
by peterbokma
12