Get started

U.S. Dollar / Turkish Lira

No trades
See on Supercharts
Overview News
Ideas
Discussions Technicals Seasonals Economic Calendar

USDTRY trade ideas

USD/TRY now looks to the CBRTUSD/TRY now looks to the CBRT - USDS/TRY clinches the second session in a row with gains on the back of the continuation of the bid bias in the greenback, always amidst persistent risk-off tone and helped further by rising US yields. - In the meantime, the lira is expected to remain under scrutiny ahead of the interest rate decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) later in the week. Consensus among investors, however, sees the central bank staying on the sidelines and keeping the One-Week Repo Rate unchanged at 14.00%. What to look for around TRY - The upside bias in USD/TRY remains unchanged and stays on course to revisit the key 18.00 zone. - In the meantime, the lira’s price action is expected to keep gyrating around the performance of energy and commodity prices - which are directly correlated to developments from the war in Ukraine - the broad risk appetite trends and the Fed’s rate path in the next months. - Extra risks facing the Turkish currency also come from the domestic backyard, as inflation gives no signs of abating (despite rising less than forecast in July), real interest rates remain entrenched in negative figures and the political pressure to keep the CBRT biased towards low interest rates remains omnipresent. In addition, there seems to be no Plan B to attract foreign currency in a context where the country’s FX reserves dwindle by the day. *Key events in Türkiye this week: Budget Balance (Monday) – CBRT Interest Rate Decision (Thursday). Eminent issues on the back boiler: FX intervention by the CBRT. Progress (or lack of it) of the government’s new scheme oriented to support the lira via protected time deposits. Constant government pressure on the CBRT vs. bank’s credibility/independence. Bouts of geopolitical concerns. Structural reforms. Presidential/Parliamentary elections in June 23. USD/TRY key levels - So far, the pair is gaining 0.13% at 17.9604 and faces the immediate target at 17.9874 (2022 high August 3) seconded by 18.2582 (all-time high December 20) and then 19.00 (round level). On the other hand, a breach of 17.1903 (weekly low July 15) would pave the way for 16.3438 (100-day SMA) and finally 16.0365 (monthly low June 27). - USD/TRY adds to Monday’s gains near the 18.00 mark. - The current consolidation remains capped by 18.00. - The CBRT is expected to keep the current status quo. The lira depreciates further and motivates USD/TRY to once again challenge the upper end of the current range just below the 18.00 yardstick on Tuesday.
by AliSamadiTR
USDTRY-SELL MTThe pair is very overbought and now we got a negative stoch RSI suggesting we have a start of a corrective pattern. The lower end of the upward sloping channel is 14.2600 and the top above 18.6200. The strategy is unchanged and we should see lower levels in the medium-term. I feel long-term 11.50 possible, based on the long-term overbought state. However, we understand it is a managed float and it may be a slow move, unless some unexpected news like we had last december.
Short
by peterbokma
4
USDTRY-SELL MTThe pair is as usual not moving much and this is the behavior of a managed float and costly exercise for the authorities. The over all picture is, we may see little higher at first, i.e. 18.50-19.00 to satisfy the lower RSI and higher high scenario of negative divergence. Overall, I would prefer short and maintain it and add at certain selected intervals. The likely event is for a decline medium-term, and long-term to an objective of 11.50 (slightly adjust now).
Short
by peterbokma
4
USDTRY-SELL strategy MTShort-term we have been grinding slowly higher, and we are nearing channel resistance 17.88. The medium-term and long-term situation is more interesting, and shows we have reasonable chance to see much lower levels. The pair is way overbought, and even controlled and all the news surrounding the condition of the market, does not change the tech picture we are in. Unless we abandon the system and make it a complete managed float. For now, SELL current 17.50-18.00 and add higher when seen carefully. The profit objective medium-term is 13.75 and long-term 11.50 for now. I am scaling it upwards due to the higher levels seen.
Short
by peterbokma
9
USDTRY-LT SELL+++The pair is way overdone, albeit controlled managed float. Looking at the GANN fan we can observe we are nearing the top 17.65 (sometimes overshoots) and also we see the FALSE BULL FLAG pattern, that has a flag support 14.68 and objective wise 11.80 GANN 1/1 support. Judging the whole chart and the RSI is very overdone, and I mean very very very overdone. This suggests caution on being LONG. I see that we may test little higher though 18.00 above, but overall expect a move back to 12.00 at a minimum based on the GANN support mentioned. So strategy is SELL @ 17.30-18.30 (its medium term so we pick levels) and take profit 12.25 for now.
Short
by peterbokma
11
USDTRY-MT NEUTRAL to upsideI am careful to promote a BUY signal, since the monthly chart is very overdone, and any major event on Turkish Lira can set it back quickly to much lower levels. The stochastic is almost positive, and the GANN resistance is 19.00 area and we have more room on upside medium-term. We may see above 18.00-18.50 before the change of direction sets in. Strategy is SELL @ 18.25-19.00 for medium term objective 10.50-11.25. I would rather use this as a wait and see opportunity and SELL higher up only and not to venture long right now. The short-term chart is slightly positive but will correct back as well. That is why some caution. Overall I see medium- to long-term move down to 10.50-11.00. Slight adjust upwards since we have moved higher as well.
Short
by peterbokma
3