USOIL MONTHLYUSOIL,oil is on a demand floor and will continue to upswing into 70-69 dollar zone ,am holding oil buy till 70$ per barrel
at 70$ zon,e buyers will face supply roof ,a critical make or break zone ,if they break the structure ,oil will fly higher and if they respect the supply roof, we sell on the fundamentals of a broken SR/RS RULE..35$ zone will be watched in a bearish scenario.
Relationship Between US Oil Prices (USOIL), Bond Yields, and Interest Rates
1. General Correlation Between Oil Prices and Bond Yields
Over recent years, US crude oil prices and 10-year US Treasury bond yields have shown a strong positive correlation, often moving in tandem.
When oil prices rise, it typically signals stronger economic activity and higher inflation expectations, which tend to push bond yields higher as investors demand greater compensation for inflation risk and growth prospects.
Conversely, falling oil prices often correlate with lower bond yields due to expectations of weaker growth and reduced inflationary pressure.
2. Oil Prices Leading Bond Yield Movements
Short-term trend changes in crude oil prices often lead changes in bond yields by a few weeks, meaning oil price movements can be a useful indicator for bond market trends.
For example, a sustained rise in oil prices due to supply constraints or geopolitical tensions often precedes an increase in Treasury yields.
3. Recent Divergences and Market Dynamics
Recently, the usual positive relationship between oil prices and bond yields has broken down temporarily, reflecting unusual market conditions such as US fiscal uncertainties and changing safe-haven dynamics.
For instance, oil prices dropped due to expectations of increased production, while US bond yields increased following economic data releases, showing a temporary divergence.
4. Impact of Oil Prices on Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations
Rising oil prices contribute to higher inflation expectations, which in turn can lead to higher nominal bond yields as investors seek compensation for inflation risk.
Central banks, including the Federal Reserve, may respond to sustained high oil prices and inflation by maintaining or raising interest rates, which also pushes bond yields higher.
Conversely, falling oil prices can act as a disinflationary force, potentially easing pressure on interest rates and bond yields, though recent market behavior shows this effect can be muted by other factors.
5. Economic Implications
Higher oil prices combined with rising bond yields and a strengthening dollar can act as a "tax" on the US economy, potentially slowing growth and increasing recession risks.
The interplay of oil prices and bond yields is a key factor in assessing the economic outlook, inflation trajectory, and monetary policy stance.
Summary Table
Factor Relationship / Impact
Oil Price ↑ Bond yields ↑ (due to inflation & growth expectations)
Oil Price ↓ Bond yields ↓ (due to lower inflation & growth fears)
Oil price trend leads bond yields Oil price changes precede bond yield changes by weeks
Recent divergence Temporary breakdown due to fiscal concerns, policy uncertainty
Inflation expectations Higher oil → higher inflation expectations → higher yields
Economic growth impact Higher oil + yields = economic headwind (stagflation risk)
Conclusion
The relationship between US oil prices (USOIL) and bond yields is generally positive and significant, with oil price movements often leading bond yield trends. Rising oil prices tend to push bond yields and interest rates higher through increased inflation expectations and stronger economic activity signals. However, recent market conditions have caused some temporary divergences due to fiscal uncertainties and changing safe-haven demand. Monitoring oil prices is crucial for anticipating bond market movements and understanding the broader macroeconomic environment.
#usoil #dollar #oil
USDWTI trade ideas
USOIL HEIST ALERT: Thief Entry Loaded – Target Locked!🚨 The Ultimate US OIL / WTI Heist Plan – Thief Trading Style 🎯💸
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We’re aiming for a clean bullish getaway near the high-risk MA zone—where traps are set and bearish robbers lurk. Watch out for overbought zones, trend reversals, and consolidation ambushes.
📈 Entry Point:
“The vault is open! Enter the bullish heist at will.”
Look to place Buy Limit Orders around swing highs/lows or pullback levels on the 15m–30m timeframe.
🛑 Stop Loss:
Set your Thief SL around the recent swing low using the 3H timeframe (example: 60.300).
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USOIL : What will happen to the price of oil?Hello friends
As you can see, we had support in the past, which has now become a strong resistance for the price after it was broken.
Now we need to see if the price will manage to break it at this moment when it is close to its key and sensitive resistance.
*Trade safely with us*
Short-term bearish sentiment also presents opportunities.
Affected by new U.S. regulations restricting Chevron's crude oil export operations in Venezuela, market expectations that the move will lead to tighter crude oil supplies have caused oil prices to rebound slightly, though they remain near the lower edge of the trading range. In the short term, continued attention is needed on the impact of the OPEC+ meeting on supply-side oversupply. Crude oil rose in intraday oscillations, with recent volatility remaining relatively low. Resistance sits at 62.50, while the rebound level from the decline is at 60.00.
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Trading Strategy:
sell@62.00-62.15
TP:60.00-60.50
USOIL Today's Trading Strategy Hope this helps you
The situation in the Middle East remains highly tense, with the Iran nuclear negotiations stalled and U.S. sanctions against Iran still in place. The two sides have significant differences on key issues such as nuclear facility inspections and conditions for lifting sanctions. Israel's military threats against Iran's nuclear facilities have continued to escalate, repeatedly stating publicly that it does not rule out launching military strikes against Iran. In the event of a conflict, as a major crude oil producer, Iran's crude oil production and exports would be severely disrupted, and oil transportation routes in the Middle East could also be blocked, creating a huge gap in global crude oil supply. At the same time, the geopolitical rivalry between Russia and Western countries in the energy sector has intensified, and geopolitical conflicts could lead Russia to adjust its crude oil export strategy, further exacerbating supply tensions in the global crude oil market and driving oil prices sharply higher.
Although OPEC+ accelerated production increases by 822,000 barrels per day in May-June, the remaining production capacity of major producers such as Saudi Arabia has fallen below 1.5 million barrels per day, making it difficult to effectively fill the supply gap left by Iran. Moreover, the production increase plan will be completed by October 2025, one year ahead of the original schedule, indicating concerns about long-term weak demand, which could instead undermine market confidence in supply flexibility.
USOIL Today's Trading Strategy Hope this helps you
USOIL BUY@60.5~61
SL:59.5
TP:62~62.5
USOIL Will Go Higher From Support! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 61.684.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 64.409 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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USOIL:Long thinking, target 62.5
USOIL: Same idea, the front 61.3-61.5 has been given to the entry point, it is slowly rising, the upper target is still seen near 62.5.
So strategically, stay long and wait for the rally, TP@62.5
Tip: It is always right to sell when there is a profit, according to individual risk appetite.
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Bullish bounce?USO/USD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 60.39
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 57.93
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 64.42
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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US CRUDE OIL PIVOT AREAUS OIL has formed a good base of support after the decent decline in the previous weeks.
The break of our intraday pivot area could keep the Bullish bias with targets of 63.67 and 64.57 in the near sight.
However failure to break above could bring prices down to 61.57 and 60.67
Oil Prices Up as Trump Delays EU Tariffs (Temporary Relief?) The global oil market, a sensitive barometer of economic health and geopolitical stability, registered a slight uptick in prices following the news that the Trump administration would extend the deadline for imposing new tariffs on a range of European Union goods. This minor rally, however, comes against a backdrop of a broader downtrend that has characterized the oil markets since mid-January. The persistent downward pressure has been largely attributed to the chilling effect of existing and threatened tariffs, not just between the US and the EU, but on a global scale, which have cast a long shadow over the outlook for global energy demand.
To understand the significance of this deadline extension and its nuanced impact on oil prices, it's crucial to first appreciate the environment in which it occurred. For several months, the dominant narrative surrounding oil has been one of demand-side anxiety. President Trump's "America First" trade policy, which has seen the imposition of sweeping tariffs on goods from various countries, most notably China, and the persistent threat of more to come against allies like the European Union, has injected a significant dose of uncertainty into the global economic system.
Tariffs, at their core, are taxes on imported goods. Their imposition typically leads to a cascade of negative economic consequences. Businesses that rely on imported components face higher input costs, which can either be absorbed, thereby reducing profit margins, or passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. Higher consumer prices can dampen spending, a key driver of economic growth. Furthermore, the uncertainty created by an unpredictable trade policy environment often leads businesses to postpone investment decisions and hiring, further stagnating economic activity.
This economic slowdown, or even the fear of it, directly translates into weaker demand for oil. Manufacturing activity, a significant consumer of energy, tends to decline. Global shipping and freight, which rely heavily on bunker fuel and diesel, slow down as trade volumes shrink. Consumer demand for gasoline and jet fuel can also wane if economic hardship leads to reduced travel and leisure activities. The retaliatory measures often taken by targeted nations – imposing their own tariffs on US goods – only serve to exacerbate this negative feedback loop, creating a tit-for-tat escalation that further erodes business confidence and global trade flows.
It is this overarching concern about a tariff-induced global economic slowdown that has been weighing heavily on oil prices since the middle of January. Market participants, from large institutional investors to commodity traders, have been pricing in the potential for significantly reduced oil consumption in the months and years ahead if these trade disputes were to escalate or become entrenched. Every new tariff announcement or threat has typically sent ripples of concern through the market, often pushing oil prices lower.
Against this gloomy backdrop, the news of an extension to the tariff deadline on EU goods, while not a resolution, acts as a momentary pause button on further immediate escalation. It offers a temporary reprieve, a brief window where the worst-case scenario of new, damaging tariffs being instantly applied is averted. This is likely why oil prices "edged higher."
The market's reaction can be interpreted in several ways. Firstly, it reflects a slight easing of immediate downside risk to the European economy. The EU is a massive economic bloc and a significant consumer of oil. The imposition of new US tariffs on key European goods, such as automobiles or luxury products, would undoubtedly have a detrimental impact on European industries, potentially tipping already fragile economies closer to recession. An extension of the deadline pushes this immediate threat further down the road, offering a sliver of hope that a negotiated solution might yet be found, or at least that the economic pain is deferred. This deferral, however slight, can lead to a marginal upward revision of short-term oil demand expectations from the region.
Secondly, the extension can be seen as a signal, however faint, that dialogue and negotiation are still possible. In the fraught world of international trade diplomacy, any indication that parties are willing to continue talking rather than immediately resorting to punitive measures can be interpreted positively by markets. It reduces, fractionally, the "uncertainty premium" that has been built into asset prices, including oil.
However, it is crucial to temper any optimism. The fact that oil only "edged higher" rather than surged indicates the market's deep-seated caution. An extension is not a cancellation. The underlying threat of tariffs remains very much on the table. The fundamental disagreements that led to the tariff threats in the first place have not been resolved. Therefore, while the immediate pressure point has been alleviated, the chronic condition of trade uncertainty persists.
The oil market is acutely aware that this extension could simply be a tactical move, buying time for political reasons without altering the fundamental trajectory of trade policy. If, at the end of the extended period, no agreement is reached and tariffs are indeed imposed, the negative impact on oil demand expectations would likely resurface with renewed force. The market is therefore likely to adopt a "wait and see" approach, with traders hesitant to make significant bullish bets based solely on a deadline postponement.
Furthermore, the US-EU trade dynamic is just one piece of a larger global puzzle. The ongoing trade tensions with China, for instance, continue to be a major drag on global growth projections and, by extension, oil demand. Progress, or lack thereof, on that front often has a more substantial impact on oil prices than developments in the US-EU relationship, given the sheer scale of US-China trade and China's role as the world's largest oil importer.
The slight rise in oil prices also needs to be seen in the context of other market-moving factors. Supply-side dynamics, such as OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions like the Middle East, and fluctuations in US shale output, constantly interact with demand-side sentiment. A deadline extension on EU tariffs might provide a small boost, but it can be easily overshadowed by a surprise inventory build, an unexpected increase in OPEC production, or signs of weakening economic data from other major economies.
In conclusion, the decision by the Trump administration to extend the tariff deadline on EU goods offered a moment of temporary relief to an oil market that has been under duress from trade war anxieties. This relief manifested as a marginal increase in oil prices, reflecting a slight reduction in immediate perceived risk to global economic activity and oil demand, particularly from Europe. However, this should not be mistaken for a fundamental shift in market sentiment or a resolution to the underlying trade disputes. The threat of tariffs remains, and the broader concerns about a global economic slowdown fueled by protectionist policies continue to loom large. The oil market's cautious reaction underscores the prevailing uncertainty, suggesting that while this extension provides a brief breathing space, the path ahead for oil prices will continue to be heavily influenced by the unpredictable currents of international trade policy.
USOIL: Bulls Are Winning! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse USOIL together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 61.687 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 62.377.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
USOIL Today's Trading StrategyThe current crude oil price is $62.5 per barrel. Recently, the crude oil price has witnessed a certain degree of decline, mainly affected by factors such as the unexpected production increase of OPEC+ and the suppression of demand by US tariffs. Since April, the international crude oil market has seen a sharp decline. First, Trump announced the launch of the "reciprocal tariff" policy, which has intensified market concerns about the global economic growth outlook and will once again lead to a decline in crude oil prices.
USOIL Today's Trading Strategy:
USOIL SELL@63.5-64
SL:65
TP:61~60
Bullish momentum to extend?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance, which lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
Pivot: 60.08
1st Support: 57.68
1st Resistance: 64.63
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Forecast of the market trend at the opening on Monday”Oil prices remained under pressure this week, experiencing a notable decline due to multiple factors. As of Friday's Asian morning session, Brent crude futures fell 37 cents to $64.07 per barrel, while U.S. WTI crude futures dropped 39 cents to $60.81 per barrel. Brent crude fell 2% for the week, while WTI declined 2.7%.
Key Drivers of Oil Price Weakness
Stronger U.S. Dollar
The U.S. House of Representatives passed President Donald Trump’s tax-cut and fiscal spending bill, boosting the U.S. dollar index against a basket of currencies.
As oil is dollar-denominated, a stronger dollar typically reduces purchasing power for non-USD buyers, suppressing oil prices.
Supply-Demand Sensitivity and Market Sentiment
The combination of dollar strength and expectations of OPEC+ production increases has intensified bearish sentiment in the oil market.
While demand is gradually recovering, significant upward pressure on supply—including potential output hikes from OPEC+ and rising U.S. shale production—has created near-term volatility.
Technical Outlook and Trading Strategy
Short-Term Trend: Oil prices are likely to remain in a sideways-to-downward oscillation due to supply-demand imbalances.
Key Levels:
Resistance: $63.0–$63.5 per barrel (short-term overhead resistance).
Support: $60.5–$60.0 per barrel (critical near-term support zone).
Trading Approach:
Consider rebound shorting as the primary strategy, with retracement buying as a secondary approach.
Use rallies toward $63.0–$63.5 to initiate short positions, targeting support at $60.5–$60.0, with stop-losses above $64.0.
Note: Monitor OPEC+ policy updates and U.S. inventory data for potential shifts in market sentiment. Volatility may rise ahead of key economic indicators.
Crude oil rebounds after encountering 60 support
📊Technical aspects
Due to concerns that global supply growth may exceed demand growth, WTI prices fell slightly and rebounded slightly after hitting the 60 mark.
From the daily chart level, the medium-term trend moving average system suppresses the rebound of oil prices, and the medium-term objective trend direction is downward. After the oil price hit the low of 55.20, the frequent alternation of long and short formed, and the embryonic form of the falling flag relay appeared from the shape. Pay attention to the strength of the oil price testing the upper edge of the flag. It is expected that after the medium-term trend fluctuates, it will still rise to the 64 position.
The short-term (1H) trend of crude oil fell and touched the key support of 60, then rose slightly. The moving average system turned to divergent upward arrangement, and the short-term objective trend direction was upward. The MACD indicator fast and slow lines crossed the zero axis, and the bullish momentum was sufficient. It is expected that the trend of crude oil will continue to rise during the day, and the probability of breaking through the 63 resistance and moving upward is relatively high.
💰 Strategy Package
Long Position: 60.5-61.5
WTI OIL Might be close to the end of correction or finished it.there are definetly more than 1 posibilities in this one, 1 more down wave can occur and that is why i have a invalidation level. long term definetly buy but short and mid term is just not very clear, i am thinking it s time to buy. what i am going to do is keep track of it a bit more in short term and if it gives me good buying opportunity near the below i will enter the trade with a stop loss. and if it upbrakes possible impulse wave will occur and i will buy again to mid term target. so for now keep an eye on it and buy if the opportunity arise.
USOIL:Long at 61.3-61.5
Last week's long target has been completed, the current decline is mainly due to concerns that global supply growth may exceed demand growth, from the technical trend, the objective trend of the middle line downward, short term long and short frequently alternate, pay attention to the support point of 60.3-60.5 within the day. Considering that it has been around this point of shock and not broken, short - term trading to do more.
So the trading strategy :BUY@61.3-61.5 TP@62.5-62.7
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Will a rebound be initiated?As the U.S. court ruled to block President Trump from imposing tariffs, market risk appetite has rebounded. However, expectations of OPEC+ production increases have limited the upside of oil prices, which currently remain within a converging range. In the short term, we need to wait for the direction after inventory data is released. The fundamentals are relatively optimistic, and it is mainly about waiting for stress tests. The persistent horizontal box (consolidation) trend is roughly between 60 and 64. If the lower track at 60 holds, a rebound is expected, with resistance at $62.
you are currently struggling with losses,or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow,You have the option to join our VIP program. I will assist you and provide you with accurate trading signals, enabling you to navigate the financial markets with greater confidence and potentially achieve optimal trading results.
Trading Strategy:
buy@60.5-61.0
TP:62.0-62.5