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U.S. Dollar / South African Rand

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USDZAR trade ideas

Daily Breakdown | The Modern Day TraderHi Everyone! My name is Sam and welcome to my first daily breakdown. In these sessions I'll be analyzing the 4 pairs on my watchlist GBPJPY, US30, USDZAR & EURUSD. Today I give a brief introduction to myself and my trading style which is an adaptation of ICT and then proceed to breakdown each pair. See bias below. DXY - Bullish. GBPJPY - Bullish, On watch for long entries. US30 - Bearish, On watch but needs further development to consider short entries USDZAR - Bearish, On watch but needs further development to consider short entries EURUSD - Bearish, On watch for long entries (Confusing I know but watch the video and it will make sense)
by The_Modern_Day_Trader
1
U.S Macro Supports ZAR MomentumDespite the South African local election being only 14 days away, speculation of U.S. interest rate cuts over the last two months has supported the rand momentum. We're approaching a crucial level at the Fibonacci retracement, but a reversal may be unlikely given a widening USDZAR carry trade and a disinflationary U.S. environment, which will support the ZAR's momentum until the end of Q2. A momentum break of 18.27 will spur price action toward 17.95 and 17.78 if the stars align. However, I'm cautious ahead of the recent shipment of weapons from the U.S. to Israel this week. This will add further tension in the Middle East if Israel aggressively pursues the Rafah Region. However, we may remain range-bound below 18.60 to 18.20 in the present macro environment. Keep in mind that April and May data will show a level of skewness due to loadshedding suspension ahead of the elections.
Short
by Shiven_80eight
USDZAR-BUY strategy 4-hourly chartI have been traveling, and still am. Market has moved the pair far lower than I previously suspected, due to the fact I felt GOLD should move lower, and the opposite happened. Now, stochastic is very low, and other indicators suggest we may see a turn around the corner. Of course, at the same time, we are near support 18.3750 and below would open the direction towards 18.2000 support. Strategy BUY @ 18.3700-18.4000 and place SL tight below 18.3450. If executed, we BUY lower @ 18.2650-18.2800. Profit order @ 18.5350 for now. This is GANN resistance area.
Long
by peterbokma
1
Stairs up, elevator down for USD ZAR.The rand has surpassed my expectations recently and reminded me that the USDZAR pair tends to take the stairs up, and the elevator down. The risk-on swing last week allowed the rand to keep the pair below the 200-day MA resistance rate of 18.80 which saw the pair fall back onto the psychological rate of 18.50. The downside break out of the blue wedge thus invalidates my previous expectation for the pair to re-test level above 19.40. The next support rate for the pair is the 38.2% fibo retracement rate of 18.38 and a break below this level will allow the rand to pull the pair onto the yearly low of 18.24. Technically the 50-day MA is set to cross below the 200-day MA and the RSI has room to move lower before hitting oversold zones which is rand positive. It's difficult to call the ZAR at the moment. A positive and peaceful local election result will see foreign investors return to the SA bond market which is rand positive coupled with a sustained dovish stance from the Fed. On the flip side, a sustained rise in the US 10-year treasury yields and the DXY could pull the pair higher back towards 19.00. The only missing piece is precious metal prices. The rand behaves like a commodity currency and another leg higher in precious metal prices will allow for a sustained rand rally towards 17.40. For now, I have a relatively neutral stance for the pair, but I am leaning towards a test of 17.40 over a test of 19.40 at the moment given last week’s developments. The markets were hit by a dovish FOMC statement last week. US bond yields and the dollar tumbled off the back of the increased bets for rate cuts in 2024. The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.50% but the real dovish sentiment started flying when the Fed announced that they will slow their balance sheet taper to $25 billion, down from $60 billion, per month. That is a whopping $35 billion that will technically be injected into the market. The dovish FOMC meeting was followed by a weaker than expected ISM manufacturing PMI print along with a feeble non-farm payrolls print of 175 thousand in April, down from 315 thousand in March. These data prints along with the recent weak US GDP results is increasing the odds for a Fed rate cut sooner rather than later as the Fed may be forced to stimulate the economy before they reach their lauded 2% inflation target. On top of all this, last week US regulators announced the first US bank failure of the year with Philadelphia-based Republic First Bank being forced to close its doors. All of this is rand positive...
by Goose96
USDZAR Low risk buy signal.The USDZAR pair is trading below both its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), having formed a Channel Down (blue) since the start of the year. The 1D RSI hit the bottom of its Rectangle, so even though there is some limited downside on the Channel Down before forming a Lower Low, the reward is much higher on the upside. Assuming a Lower Low at the bottom, we expect another +4.40% rise towards the Lower Highs, thus our Target is at 19.1500. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
1