USDZAR trade ideas
Can USDZAR Break Through Resistance Zone?When the USDZAR 4-hour chart is examined; It is observed that price movements continue below the resistance zone. It is evaluated that USDZAR can target 17.663959 in price movements above 17.108625, but as long as the 18.025658 level cannot be passed, it is evaluated that in price movements below 17.663959, it can break down 17.108625 and retreat to 16.202552.
Fundamental & Technical analysis on USDZAR shorts Fundamental : Open Interest on the South African Rand is increasing which is a Bearish signal/confluence. Commercial (Hedgers) Short positions are also increasing which for Exotic pairs like USDZAR means they are covering their Longs and add yet another Bearish confluence. Non-Commercial is also increasing its Long positions which is once again Bearish since you have too see it from a 180 degree view point.
COT Report : cot-reports.com
Technical : On the Technical Analysis side of things we have the 5 EMA crossing down the 20 EMA at the same time that Momentum is negative and the Stochastic %K line is underneath the 50% line
Stop Loss & Take Profits : To determine my Stop Loss and Take Profits I use a Fib Retracement drawn from a recent significant Low to a recent High. My strategy uses the 0.236 Fib LVL as the Stop Loss, for this trade that means 18.51172 on the chart is my Stop. Take Profit #1 is at Fib LVL 1.272, Take Profit #2 is at Fib LVL 1.414, Take Profit #3 is at Fib LVL 1.618, Take Profit #4 is at Fib LVL 2, Take Profit #5 is at Fib LVL 2.272, and my final Take Profit which is #6 is at Fib LVL 2.618.
USDZAR Let us wait and see what will happen the next remaining 3 months of this year maybe the rand will be =/> R16 when traded with $1 📉📈📊📊🐅🦧
USDZAR-BUY strategy 3Daily Heikin AshiThe pair still under pressure, and for good reasons. the issue is it is oversold, and I feel we will see large correction, and that is why keep SL tight.
Strategy BUY @ 17.3500-17.4150 and take profit @ 17.7575 area. SL based on your own parameters.
“USDZAR on a Downward Trend”The South African Reserve Bank has reduced the policy interest rate to 8.00%. Following this move, the reversals at the 17.40 level in the USDZAR pair have drawn attention. The Fed had unexpectedly cut rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting. This situation has led to significant losses in dollar assets, while we can observe that any increases in the USDZAR pair remain limited.
From a technical perspective, if the exchange rate surpasses the 17.70 level, rises may initially extend to 17.95 and then to the 18.20 resistance level. On the downside, if the 17.40 level is breached, we could see a decline to 17.15 and then to the 16.90 support level.
USDZAR-BUY strategy 8-Hourly chart Heikin AshiThe overall picture has not changed. We are oversold, and likely we will see recovery coming week. However, the move is not a confirmed one, and therefore SL should managed carefully.
Strategy BUY @ 17.4759-17.5500 and take profit @ 17.8550 for now. SL based on personal risk appetite
note: if one has long position already, ensure leverage is managed properly.
USDZARIn Q2 of 2023 we saw an impulsive bearish move. Presently we have completed a bullish correction that has shifted orderflow from bullish to bearish. We have a break of key structure on the daily time frame. Presently we are awaiting a minor bullish correction targeting the FOB then resume the bearish orderflow.
USDZAR-BUY strategy 6-Hourly Heikin AshiWe have pushed lower near 17.5500 area, but now its stalling. We are starting to be in oversold country, hence we should see recovery, it my personal view. Further, adding GOLD is overbought, and this should give also some support to the idea of higher level for the pair.
Strategy BUY 17.6000-17.6500 and take profit near 17.8750 for now. SL based on personal risk appetite.
Rand going upThe Dollar has been weak n is getting weaker n the Rand is getting stronger by the day
from point 17.88249 the Dollar has been losing its steam n the Rand has accumulating from those Dollar losses, now the price is trading below the Sep 12th n 16th and showing no real sign of breaking to the top side of the trend line to close above...
The price will then look to create more steam on Rand for it to keep on growing, n the next price level for Rand on Dollar is 17.41700
Details on trade set up on chart
Dollar to slip down n Rand to growThe Dollar has been weak n is getting weaker n the Rand is getting stronger by the day
from point 17.88249 the Dollar has been losing its steam n the Rand has accumulating from those Dollar losses, now the price is trading below the Sep 12th n 16th and showing no real sign of breaking to the top side of the trend line to close above...
The price will then look to create more steam on Rand for it to keep on growing, n the next price level for Rand on Dollar is 17.41700
trading set up on the chart
USDZAR-SELL strategy 12 Hourly Heikin AshiWe are still under pressure and breaking below 17.70s does not bode well. I feel we may see somewhere 17.4500 - 17.5000 area in the short term. Thereafter, it will becoke a medium term buy.
Strategy SELL @ 17.6805-17.7500 and take profit near 17.4750. SL based on your own risk appetite.
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USDZAR BUYPrice just bounced off a good zone on the fibonacci, with the antici [ation of an impulse + its NFP what are the chance that we are going up with a big candle?
USDZAR Possibility VS ProbabilityA descending channel looks to be forming on USDZAR. Look for sell around 17.96 with stop losses at 18.06. Price should target 17.56
USDZAR-BUY strategy 3Daily chart Heikin AshiFrom a strategic point of view, the pair has room to move back somewhere 18.6500 medium term. The pattern and indications, suggest we are building a base, and I feel we may see coming weeks a larger move higher.
Strategy BUY @ 17.8000-17.9000 and take profit @ 18.4350 for now. SL based on risk appetite.
USDZAR-SELL strategy 8 hourly Heikin AshiThe pair has been climbing with uncertainty. There is more room upwards I feel.
Strategy SELL @ 17.9800-18.0150 and SL based on risk appetite, and profit order @ 17.6850 for now.
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T. L. Turner
USD/ZAR Reaches Key Demand Zone: Are We Set for a Reversal?The USD/ZAR currency pair has reached a significant demand area around the 17.72800 level, presenting a potential opportunity for a long position. This critical zone has caught the attention of traders and market analysts alike, especially those looking for a reversal setup based on market positioning data and technical indicators.
COT Report Insights: A Contrarian Indicator
A deeper dive into the Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals intriguing insights into market sentiment for the USD/ZAR pair. The data shows a notable divergence between retail traders and commercials. Currently, retail traders are predominantly short on the USD/ZAR, betting on further declines in the pair. On the other hand, commercials—who often represent larger, more informed institutional players—are also short on the Rand in the Weekly Futures market. This contrarian stance by retail traders and commercials indicates that a significant market move may be on the horizon.
Market Positioning and the Case for a Reversal
The current market positioning suggests a classic oversold condition for the USD/ZAR pair. An oversold market is typically characterized by excessive selling pressure that has pushed prices lower than what underlying fundamentals might justify. This often leads to a potential reversal as market forces balance out and traders begin to cover their short positions.
The convergence of these factors—an oversold technical condition, retail traders being heavily short, and commercials positioning themselves short on the Rand—sets the stage for a possible bullish reversal. Such a scenario could see the USD/ZAR pair rebound from the current demand area and make a move higher, as buying interest emerges to drive the pair up from its current levels.
Technical Analysis Supports Bullish Outlook
From a technical perspective, the 17.72800 demand zone has historically served as a strong support level, where buying pressure has previously emerged. This zone has acted as a magnet for price action, attracting significant buying interest whenever the pair has approached it. The current price action shows signs of stabilization around this key area, further bolstering the case for a bullish reversal.
Additionally, the presence of bullish reversal patterns or signals, such as candlestick formations or momentum indicators turning upward from oversold levels, would add further confirmation to the potential for an upward move. Traders and analysts are closely monitoring the price action for these confirming signals to enter long positions with more confidence.
Conclusion: Preparing for a Bullish Reversal
Given the convergence of factors—COT report insights, oversold conditions, and technical support at the demand zone—the USD/ZAR pair appears primed for a potential bullish reversal. Traders should keep a close watch on upcoming price action and market data for further clues on the timing and strength of this anticipated move. As always, it's essential to manage risk carefully and consider both fundamental and technical aspects when planning trades.
With the USD/ZAR trading near critical levels, a well-timed entry could offer a favorable risk-reward setup for those anticipating a reversal and subsequent upward movement in the pair.
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USDZAR 09/09/2024Weekly:
-Weekly lows.
-Inverse H&S pattern.
Daily:
-Inverse H&S pattern.
-IC.
4H:
-Bullish M pattern.
-Inverse H&S pattern.
USDZAR BUYSBuys on USDZAR after price fulfills the previous high of the over all H4 low and confirms with a 1 hour candle @ 14:00
