#USDZAR Bullish setup.We have an ending diagonal as a reversal pattern, complemented by divergence. R19.17/$ will be a target. It has a decent Risk/Reward ratio of 1:3,2.
USDZAR trade ideas
Stairs up, elevator down for USD ZAR.The rand has surpassed my expectations recently and reminded me that the USDZAR pair tends to take the stairs up, and the elevator down. The risk-on swing last week allowed the rand to keep the pair below the 200-day MA resistance rate of 18.80 which saw the pair fall back onto the psychological rate of 18.50. The downside break out of the blue wedge thus invalidates my previous expectation for the pair to re-test level above 19.40. The next support rate for the pair is the 38.2% fibo retracement rate of 18.38 and a break below this level will allow the rand to pull the pair onto the yearly low of 18.24. Technically the 50-day MA is set to cross below the 200-day MA and the RSI has room to move lower before hitting oversold zones which is rand positive.
It's difficult to call the ZAR at the moment. A positive and peaceful local election result will see foreign investors return to the SA bond market which is rand positive coupled with a sustained dovish stance from the Fed. On the flip side, a sustained rise in the US 10-year treasury yields and the DXY could pull the pair higher back towards 19.00. The only missing piece is precious metal prices. The rand behaves like a commodity currency and another leg higher in precious metal prices will allow for a sustained rand rally towards 17.40. For now, I have a relatively neutral stance for the pair, but I am leaning towards a test of 17.40 over a test of 19.40 at the moment given last week’s developments.
The markets were hit by a dovish FOMC statement last week. US bond yields and the dollar tumbled off the back of the increased bets for rate cuts in 2024. The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.50% but the real dovish sentiment started flying when the Fed announced that they will slow their balance sheet taper to $25 billion, down from $60 billion, per month. That is a whopping $35 billion that will technically be injected into the market. The dovish FOMC meeting was followed by a weaker than expected ISM manufacturing PMI print along with a feeble non-farm payrolls print of 175 thousand in April, down from 315 thousand in March. These data prints along with the recent weak US GDP results is increasing the odds for a Fed rate cut sooner rather than later as the Fed may be forced to stimulate the economy before they reach their lauded 2% inflation target. On top of all this, last week US regulators announced the first US bank failure of the year with Philadelphia-based Republic First Bank being forced to close its doors. All of this is rand positive...
USDZAR Low risk buy signal.The USDZAR pair is trading below both its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), having formed a Channel Down (blue) since the start of the year. The 1D RSI hit the bottom of its Rectangle, so even though there is some limited downside on the Channel Down before forming a Lower Low, the reward is much higher on the upside.
Assuming a Lower Low at the bottom, we expect another +4.40% rise towards the Lower Highs, thus our Target is at 19.1500.
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Sell USDZARUSDZAR sells are not completed yet coming from a double top. Take advantage of this last bear momentum. Target is 18.22.
The little EM currency that could.The rand managed to stage an impressive recovery last week off the back of the increased risk on investor sentiment which allowed the rand to pull the pair below the 50-day and 200-day MA support rates.
I did not expect the rand to pull the pair onto the upward blue trend line but the month-end flows helped nudge the rand a further than expected. This pair has humbled me in the past few weeks.
I still however believe that this is a temporary pullback for the pair. A failed break below the upward blue trend line and the support at 18.68 will see the pair re-test the critical rate of 18.97. The pair is currently being squeezed by this blue wedge and I still favor a top side break over a downside break.
A break above the critical rate of 18.97 will be an early indication of a top side break of the wedge. A break below 18.68 will however invalidate the expected price action in the chart.
USDZAR-BUY stategy Daily chartThe pair is under further pressure due to GOLD remaining stable above $ 2,300.00. However, the chances are we will reverse, and therefore caution on shorting the pair.
Stochastic is low, and even though it could of course move lower, overall we should recover from the lows.
Strategy BUY @ 18.4800-18.5200 and place SL below 18.4450 and re-enter BUY near 18.3350-18.3500 if seen. Profit order place it somewhere @ 18.7350.
note: my analysis are purely suggestions, and it is the trader/investor who should decide where to BUY or SELL of course. I appreciate the many nice comments I receive from the followers. I do my very best, but I am not alwayts right, therefore do study the charts as well. Thank you so much.
Possible WXY Correction completion on USDZAR The long-term trend is still bullish with what looks to be a completed complex correction (WXY) on the primary count ... Do you think the US Dollar has the legs to break out?
LongUSDZAR has been consolidating on HTF's we are currently at the low of the range hence we are looking at taking advantage of that and take long positions as we target the high of the range and potentially breakout to the upside as we expect the Dollar to gain strength and Gold to drop in value.
USDZAR-RANGE TRADE 4-hourly chartI have been traveling, but have seen the enormous movements of the pair. The pressure to the downside is extensive, but as I have been promoting for awhile, is the potential of a larger GOLD correction. Keeping that in mind, for now, we see a large range that is between 18.4000 - 18.7850 for now. We tried above 18.8000 and it failed, because GOLD failed moving lower,
Strategy SELL @ 18.6750-18.7150 and take profit @ 18.4350, or BUY at 18.4350 area for a profit level of 18.6850. SL below 18.3750.
LONGLooking at taking long positions given that the the USD index continues with gain and GOLD drops in value.
We are trading around the inner 4H/1H DEMAND AREA and we can see x2 Bullish reversal candle patterns from our 1H cahrt the Bullish engulfing pattern and the beraish pin bar. Now we are looking at a rally in price to our LTF supply area. We have to keep me that the HTF is in a Consolidation phase hance we are looking for LTF/intraday trades instead of swing trades.
USDZAR ShortSupply
19 Mqp
Multiple rejections
Brics deal
South Africa leaving the US dollar
Long term short
Potential Sell on USD/ZARThere's a huge possibility of the usd/zar instrument reversing for a fall at the 0.786 retracement level, our profit targets can be placed at 0.618 as TP1 and TP2 at 0.236 retracement.
Bullish OpportunityPrice is nearing oversold territory according to the MM lines, KC as well as stochastic RSI. We should definitely see a push up soon.
UsdzarThe USDZAR decreased 0.2310 or 1.21% to 18.8042 on Friday April 26 from 19.0352 in the previous trading session. Historically, the South African Rand reached an all time high of 19.92 in June of 2023
USDZAR-B8Y strategy (still) 4-hourlyMy trading model had the right SL and we can re-enter lower again around 18.8000 below. The RSI is oversold, and we are way below GANN angle levels as well.
Sorry to state, and did not have the run down of course, but that is part of life. Other positions are fine, so we have to keep on tracking it.
Strategy BUY @ 18.7650-18.8200 and place SL below 18.6150. we need more room now for the oversold status we are in.profit level I suggest 19.0350 for now.
Blue wedge is narrowing on the ZARThe USDZAR has bounced up aggressively after the major blue support range held its ground at 18.40. The pair climbed a full rand to 19.40 within two weeks after touching the 3-month low of 18.40.
The red resistance range has however managed to come to the rand’s rescue which has allowed the pair to slide back below the downward blue trend line. The blue wedge I have been highlighting is narrowing and it is only a matter of time before we see a breakout.
The critical rate to watch remains at 18.97. A failed break below 18.97 will be the first indication of a top side break of the wedge which will see the rand fold to 19.65 against the dollar. A break below 18.97 will however allow the rand to re-test the bottom end of the wedge around the 200-day MA mark at 18.75. I’m currently leaning towards a top side break out of the blue wedge given the rand’s subdued gains from the recent rise in precious metal prices, the lead up to the local elections (29 May) and the broad-based dollar strength.
A break below 18.97 and the 50-day MA at 18.89 will however force me to reassess.
USDZAR-BUY strategy 4-hourly chartI had yesterday completely wrong, and it was because I felt GOLD should move lower, and it did not. It will of course move towards $ 2,100 over time, but not as yet as it has been holding its ground.
The pair was stationed within the triangle, and the idea of moving higher, for later SELL did not happen. It happens and its a part of trading.
Now we have a lower stochastic, and perhaps it has some room lower, but somewhere we will turn up.
Strategy BUY @ 18.9650-19.0200 and place SL below 19.9050 and profit order @ 19.3575 for now.
USDZAR-NEUTRAL BUY strategy 4-hourlyThe pair is remaining high and GOLD remains low, and may move lower. even though I feel the pair will go south eventually, for now feel we may see a move higher breaking upwars through the triangle and reach 19.3500 area. Thereafter we sell again.
Strategy BUY @ 19.1750-19.2100 and place SL below 19.0750 and take profit @ 19.3400
USDZAR IS NOW GIVING US ANOTHER CHANCE TO ENTER AGAINAfter hitting the 100% Retest zone, USDZAR returned to the MARKET GLITCH STRUCTURE, providing us with another opportunity to make additional entries. More entries will be opened when the market the c-re-entry levels and more money will be made.
USDZAR-SELL strategy 4-hourly The pair moved little higher on the back of GOLD decline.The stochastic is positive.
We are still protected by GANN resistance, and also still outside the ascending wedge, suggesting we may see lower levels later on, is my personal view.
Strategy SELL @ 19.1750-19.2150 and place SL above 19.3150 and take profit @ 18.9350.
