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U.S. Dollar / South African Rand

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USDZAR trade ideas

USDZAR-NEUTRAL BUY strategy 9 Hourly chart - Heikin AshiThe pair is personally for me in a range, and no significance in terms of direction. I wish to note, we are slightly on BUY side as fisher form provides some support to that view point. We have a trend line around 18.4000 that must be captured first, before I would feel more confident in seeing higher levels. The trend-line holding it, is in fact a S/H/S top formation, as I had mentioned some days back which may have an overall objective of 17.2300 area. For now shirt-term strategy BUY 18.3000-18.3400 and hope for the break and take profit near 18.5350. I prefer to be side line though.
by peterbokma
1
Bearish drop?USD/ZAR is rising towards the pivot and could drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 18.32616 1st Support: 18.05807 1st Resistance: 18.46573 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
Bearish drop?USD/ZAR is reacting the pivot and could drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 18.3261 1st Support: 18.0580 1st Resistance: 18.4657 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
USD/ZAR Poised for a Strong Breakout as Market Forces Align1️⃣ Key Technical Insights from the Chart A. Wyckoff Accumulation & Support Zone The chart suggests Wyckoff accumulation with a Spring phase (H) and Test (H) in October 2024 at the 17.80 - 18.00 zone. This Spring phase often signals a liquidity grab, where smart money accumulates before a trend reversal. The current price level (18.06 - 18.12) is near the support line for SC Accumulation (D), reinforcing the idea of a bullish move from here. 💡 Macro Connection: If US inflation surprises higher (March 11 CPI), interest rate expectations shift hawkish, and USD strengthens, reinforcing the Wyckoff accumulation phase leading to an upward breakout. If global risk sentiment worsens, USD could also see inflows as a safe-haven, confirming the upward trajectory. B. Harmonic Pattern & Fibonacci Levels The Bearish Gartley/XABCD pattern has completed its correction phase at Point A (~18.06) and now shows signs of reversal. The B point rejection near 1.238 Fibonacci extension indicates exhaustion of the bearish move. The chart suggests a bullish continuation, targeting 19.26 by March 20, 2025, based on projected Fibonacci extensions. 💡 Macro Connection: If US Nonfarm Payrolls (April 5) and Fed Meeting (March 19) reinforce strong USD fundamentals, the technical bullish move aligns with macroeconomic data. A rise in bond yields above 4.5% on the 10-year Treasury could confirm the expected upside. C. Elliott Wave Structure The chart labels a completed 5-wave impulse up followed by an ABC corrective pattern, aligning with Elliott Wave theory. The current structure suggests the start of a new Wave 3 rally, which is typically the strongest and most extended move. Potential upside target: 19.26 (aligning with Wave 3 extension). 💡 Macro Connection: If March and April macro data support continued USD strength, this Elliott Wave 3 scenario could materialize. A higher inflation surprise could extend this move to 19.50+ in the next few months. 2️⃣ Key Fundamental Factors Supporting the Bullish Scenario 🔹 U.S. Inflation & Interest Rates (March 11, March 19) Higher CPI would delay rate cuts, strengthening USD. Fed’s March 19 statement will confirm if rates remain “higher for longer.” 🔹 U.S. Economic Growth (March 27, April 5) If GDP data (March 27) comes in strong, it could fuel USD gains. Nonfarm Payrolls (April 5) will determine the labor market’s strength. 🔹 South African Economic Risks (March-April) Load shedding worsening → Weakens ZAR. Political uncertainty ahead of elections → Triggers risk-off flows into USD. 3️⃣ Key Trading Levels & Strategy Based on the Chart Key Level Technical Importance Bullish/Bearish 17.80 – 18.00 Strong support & Wyckoff Spring Bullish Bounce Zone 18.50 Minor resistance Bullish above this 18.66 – 18.88 Resistance cluster (AR accumulation) Key breakout level 19.26 Harmonic projection & Fib extension Final bullish target Trade Idea Buy near 18.06 - 18.12 if macro factors confirm USD strength. Confirmation: Break above 18.50 → Bullish continuation. Final target: 19.26 by March 20, 2025. 📌 Summary: Strong Confluence Between Technical & Macro Factors ✔ Wyckoff Accumulation & Harmonic Pattern suggest reversal from 18.06-18.12 ✔ Elliott Wave 3 & Fibonacci targets align with 19.26 projection ✔ Upcoming U.S. macro data supports a strong USD outlook ✔ South African risks (Eskom, political uncertainty) favor ZAR weakness
Long
by spaceangel
USDZAR-NEUTRAL RANGE - BUY strategy 6 hourly chartThe pressure is still on, and as indicated on the Kagi chart yesterday, I observed the potential for much lower levels due to the possible S/H/S pattern. The regression channel as ample room lower towards 18.0900 area, but the key is how we manage the 18.2900 area (confirmed break or not). we are oversold but not extreme. Strategy BUY @ 18.2750 - 18.3000 area but keep very tight stop, as the chances are we may go lower. If indeed we hold this area profit area should be around 18.4450 for now. Play range 18.2750 - 18.4950 for now until broken below 18.2900.
by peterbokma
Bullish bounce?USD/ZAR has bounced off the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 18.5736 1st Support: 18.4387 1st Resistance: 18.8136 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
ECB rate decision and US NFPs awaits the ailing rand Since my previous idea on the ZAR the SA budget speech ended in shambles after a failed attempt to increase VAT for 15% to 17% and the latest SA CPI figure crept higher to 3.2% in January. In terms of international relations, the vibe between the US and SA has continued sour which also does not bode well for the ailing rand. The above-mentioned factors strengthened the support rate at 18.30 and the pair has climbed back above the 50-day MA at 18.59. A host of strong data prints from the US and a bounce in the DXY also did not do the rand any favors at the back end of last week. The headlining events for this week is the ECB interest rate meeting and the NFPs for February. Market expectations are for the ECB to cut rates from 2.9% to 2.65%. The ECB has held a more dovish stance than the Fed since the rate cutting cycle began and if it’s more of the same on Thursday, I expect the DXY to find strong footing which will not be rand positive. Additionally, a strong NFP print will also support a stronger dollar. Technically the pair does seem to be overbought on shorter timeframes however on the daily the RSI does have room to move higher which could allow the rand to slip further towards the psychological resistance at 19.00 if the above-mentioned events play out against the rand’s favor. A failed break below the 50-day MA will be the first indicator that the rand’s early year recovery has hit the wall, paving the way for a re-test of 19.00.
Long
by Goose96