USDZAR🔥USDZAR ranges is over Probably..
The monthly candle closed as buys taken over probably..
Follow your Bias...this is just an IDEA/ANALYSIS
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USDZAR trade ideas
USDZAR-RANGE 4-hourly chartCurrently we are under pressure and this may go further until somewhere 18.5150-18.5300. The overall pattern (daily chart is easier to see) is a large "W" shape, and we are supported trend line near 18.5100. The neckline of the W is somewhere 18.9350 estimated.
For those playing a larger play, may consider looking at this pattern, either by early entry or on break-out.
Strategy short-term is BUY near 18.5100- and place SL @ 18.4350. Profit @ 18.8575
or SELL near 18.8500-18.8800 and place SL above 18.9450. Profit order @ 18.5975 now.
Medium-term play consider BUYING near 18.5100 and place SL @ 18.3875 and take profit at 19.6550.
USDZAR - BULLISH TRENDUSDZAR bullish trend printing higher highs and higher lows. BUY limit, Stop Loss and TP defined.
USDZAR-RANGE trade 4-hourly chartWe managed indeed to move higher, and more than expected, which is normal for this pair.
we are out of bounds of downward channel, but still higher ranges are possible. There fore I see pattern as range bound, hammer tops and cross, but positive stochastic.
Strategy SELL @ 18.8450-18.8650 (SL @ 18.9750 and profit @ 18.6750.
Strategy BUY @ 18.6150-18.6350 (SL @ 18.5350) and profit @ 18.7550.
USDZAR Bearish MovePrice broke out of our bullish trendline(green) and went and retested our bearish trendline(red) . As long as price is below our red trendline price will continue to move lower
USDZAR-BUY strategy 4-hourlyThe pair has moved lower as expected, and perhaps little bit more.
The current situation feels its under pressure for further down move, but I feel with USD being oversold on others, and also we have a low stochastic, still positive, suggesting a BUY strategy now.
Strategy BUY @ 18.4350-18.4600 and place SL below 18.3750 for now. Profit order @ 18.6350.
GREENBACK IS BULLISHHey Traders, USDZAR Pair is on the bullish trend, based 4hr Timeframe and confirmation that 61.8% Fibb Retracement is within the Golden buy zone, this might hit TP4 by end of next week, enjoy your profit.
Bearish UsdZarWe are looking at equal higher lows for a double top on this pair before a bearish continuation
USDZAR- SELL strategy 4-hourlyThe pair has climbed during my trip, and did much better than expected. We have seen highs near 19.00 even, and declined towards 18.8200 area.
The stochastic is negative, and we are within a larger falls bull flag and we are moving within a large ascending wedge.
Strategy is SELL near 18.9000-18.9500 but SL should be above 19.0750 if one manages this far out. Profit order I think near 18.5450 and beaqring in mind support near 18.7600 for now.
Heading into Ki DezembaThe rand has now given back almost half of its October gains following the ill received CPI figures and SARB interest rate decision. The rand slide roughly 2.5% last week which saw the USD/ZAR pair touch a high of 18.96. Luckily the rand managed to keep the pair below the critical 50-day MA rate of 18.82, but a break above this rate could see the rand slide further towards 19.20 as we enter the month of ki Dezemba. It is difficult to gauge the rand’s moves but the rise in investor risk-on sentiment and eased liquidity conditions in fundamentally rand positive. The breakout of the downward channel and the break above the 200-day MA is however technically rand-negative.
USDZAR- In Bullish TrendUSDZAR Is making a Bullish trend as it is printing HH and HLs. And the trend is further confirmed by the formation of three white soldiers on HL. So we took a smart entry on the formation of three white soldiers on HL.
USDZAR - Bullish Breakout Bullish breakout activity corresponding to ZAR fundamental news.
If price retraces on negative USD news, go short at retracement below upper trendline
USDZAR Short Carry tradeFundamental outlook
- Economic sentiment turned risk-on last two weeks
- Upcoming Christmass and new year could be a bigger cataclyst towards risk-on assets
- High swap rate (83$ per lot)
Technical outlook
- 4H charts shows a strong inverse H&S patern
- Price retraced to resistance - clean order block on 4H and 1H TF
Will try to pyramid this trade as it gives a daily payout.
USDZAR SELL OPPERTUNITYInitiated a trade with a target set at 18.20719. The USD has been notably weak, and momentum is currently indicating a downward trend. I'll provide updates as necessary.
Hope you all have a great trading week.
What thoughts fam...m going long...EInflation is anticipated to start easing toward the midpoint of the South African Reserve Bank’s 3% to 6% target range, which is where it prefers to anchor expectations.
Against that outlook, economists are in consensus that the MPC will close off the year, leaving the benchmark rate unchanged for a third straight meeting while delivering a hawkish message. Most only anticipate rate cuts from the second quarter of next year.
Supporting its decision to hold are fresh developments, including oil prices erasing their sharp rise from late August and the Federal Reserve appearing to be done with rate hikes. That bodes well for the rand, Tatonga Rusike, an economist at Bank of America, said in a note to clients.
#USDZAR daily analysisUSDZAR saw a bearish reversal off the important 18.75 level which was strong support previously. Should we trade below friday's low at 18.61, i suspect we will see a re-test of 18.43. However if no follow through of the reversal occurs and price manages to gain traction above 18.75 i would then expect the 18.90 level to come into play where we find the 50dma and the downtrend resistance. My gut says back to 18.43 the more likely action given friday's candle structure
USD/ZAR Analysis| Where And When Will It Fall?Hey Traders,
The USDZAR has risen in value for a significant period of time.
Which begs the question, why and where to get short?
Many traders (including high volume/institutions) will be looking for high prices to short as you have seen various other times.
Here's my TA.
Rand re-check The weaker than expected US CPI results sparked a prompt risk-on rally which sent the dollar and US bond yields tumbling. The rand caught a strong bid off the back of this boosted risk-on sentiment which allowed the rand to pull the pair all the way onto the blue support line at 18.13.
The critical rate to keep an eye out for now is the black 61.8% Fibo retracement rate at 18.27. A failed break back above this level will allow the rand to pull the pair lower onto the blue 61.8% Fibo retracement rate of 17.94, which coincides with the long-term trend line. A break back above 18.27 will however allow the pair to inch back up towards the 200-day MA at 18.60.
The fundamental factors behind the rand’s gains is purely due to a change in investor sentiment following the dovish Fed interest rate decision a few weeks ago and the narrative that inflation is peaking. As long as the market remains confident that the Fed will be able to pull off their “soft landing,” the more interest the rand will get from the carry trade. Other fundamental factors that could support the rand are quite thin particularly commodity prices that have remained range bound. Next week the SARB is expected to hold the repo rate at 8.25% and it’ll be interesting to see how the markets react once the waters across the Atlantic has settled.
In terms of technical indicators, there is a degree of divergence on the RSI which could be an early signal of a move higher towards 18.50-18.60 before the rand is allowed to test the support rate at 17.94. The 50-day MA is also rolling over which can create a death cross if it crosses below the 200-day MA. This will be a bullish indicator for the rand since the last time the 50-day MA crossed below the 200-day was in April 2022 and October 2020.
For now, I’m sitting on the fence with this pair as I believe the risk-on rally may have been overdone following the US CPI print. I’m watching the DXY and the US 10-year yield to judge whether the rand’s rally can continue. A turn in the DXY and US yields will pin the rand back onto the ropes if we don’t see a significant rally in commodity prices.
