USDZAR-RANGE SELL strategy Daily chartThe pair is currently near 4-bottom area, which currently is around 18.7600. Lower we have GANN support @ 18.4500. Resistance is @ 19.1700 (trend line) and 19.40 GANN resistance. Gold is likely to move lower and this will help the pair to move back up a bit.
the case look like a range trade, and I feel preference to be SELL, even though for those willing could argue BUY near support level @ 18.7600.
Strategy SELL @ 19.0100-19.0700 and place SL @ 19.2200 for now. Profit order near support 18.7600.
USDZAR trade ideas
USDZAR: Long term Channel Up preparing the final rally.USDZAR is trading around the 1D MA50 on neutral technicals (RSI = 45.374, MACD = -0.003, ADX = 21.007) but on a long term Channel Up for the past 2 years. This current consolidation has been the accumulation period in the two bullish legs prior before the final rally to a Higher High. This is our buy entry and we aim at the top of the Channel (TP = 21.000).
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USDZAR-NEUTRAL 4-Hourly chartOne would have been able to get out near enough profit objective @ 19.25-19.27 or on the revised SL 9.13 handle. I did the first one @ 19.2650. Thereafter, I did not have clear view and it collapsed to current 18.9000. I feel the move lower has been to quick, even though we are below triangle support, and negative stochastic, I would prefer to stay out for now on this pair.
We monitor it for a few days again. The NOKZAR SL was also hit due to the fact that the USDZAR collapsed.
USDZAR-BUY strategy 4-Hourly chartConsidering that NOKZAR is too low, and the pair is within a triangle pattern with positive stochastic, chances are that the pair will be pulled upwards by USDNOK. The current USDNOK @ 11.15 translate to a USDZAR 19.3000 for correction upwards following NOK.
Strategy BUY @ 19.0000-19.0500 and take profit above 19.3000. SL below 18.8650 for now.
The Depreciating Sout African RandFundamentals:
Deteriorating economic-fundamentals for the South African Rand:
"It's a futile exercise trying to defend the exchange rate," says the South African Central Bank governor. He won't defend the depreciating rand. According to Reuters, Kganyago says that the "bank's main concern remained fighting inflation, reiterating that risks to the inflation outlook included food prices, oil prices and exchange-rate moves."
South Africa's consumer inflation "remains comfortably within the central bank's target range of between 3%-6%." The Rand's central bankers meet in November to discuss interest rates.
Technicals:
multiple bullish candlestick signals: morning star and engulfing
closing above 50kyan and tenkan
Weekly BBT support
hidden bullish divergence
cloud support
daily HHHL
Be a pro at reading candles Achieving a successful entry in forex trading hinges on your ability to comprehend the structural elements at play. Start by gaining a clear understanding of the market's current structural dynamics. Next, it's essential to analyze the candlestick formations to determine which party is likely to control the market. Often, traders tend to overemphasize patterns and trends, but it's crucial to take a step back, slow down, and focus on interpreting the candlesticks. This straightforward practice can significantly enhance your ability to make accurate predictions for the next market move.
USDZAR-SELL strategy 4-Hourly chartThe pair as usual is aggressive either way, however, it does follow ranges (it respects it). Now we have tried upside above 19.1000 and we have moved lower thereafter. It is shadowing now GOLD price, and based on that and negative stochastic, we are back into SELL mode.
Strategy SELL @ 18.9800-19,0575 and take profit @ 18.6350. SL place this above 19.1150 for now.
USD/ZAR check in.The pair is currently dancing with the 50-day MA rate of 18.97, which is a critical rate to watch. A failed break back above the 50-day MA will allow the rand to pull the pair below 18.80 with a possible move lower towards the 200-day MA rate of 18.43. A break above the 50-day MA will however signal another leg higher towards 19.90 for the pair. It’s too early to make a call now but the strength of the current upward channel seems to be fading which is, dare I say it, rand positive.
The break below 19.12 is also rand positive as it invalidates the 5-wave impulse.
USDZAR-RANGE SELL 4-hourly chartThe pair has reached profit level, and for now we should SELL into rally within the range.
We are below mid-Keltner, and strategy is SELL near the mid-level, i.e. 18.9050 area (check the current level at time of your SELL).
Stochastic is negative and keeps the pressure on the pair.
Strategy SELL near 18.9000 and place SL above 19.0200. Profit order @ 18.7150.
USDZAR Speed lines FibonacciPrice trading midway between my resistance and support speed lines. Price bounced of a horizontal support, but did not reach the 38.2 retracement level. On my short list and will read the candlesticks as soon as price start intersecting my speed lines. Set alert on your trendlines and only check back once alerts are triggered.