Long bearish USDZAR the rand might strengthen further I'm seeing a long bearish on USDZAR the Rand might strengthen further to 1694.00 by nd of the year
USDZAR trade ideas
USD/ZAR Mid week reversalCurrently Testing Low of the week + Low of previous day
Waiting for a fakeout below current Low to trap sellers and a swift move up between London/New York session.
my first ever publish from my phone will have better detailed marked up charts next time
USDZAR- SELL strategySome week back I suggested a SELL strategy @ 19.78 or higher. The potential was at the time for a slight upward move, and we saw a high of around 19.91.
For those that have shorted, I suggest profit order @ 18.47 for now. the stop-loss can now be at break even @ 19.80 let's say.
USDZAR - UpdateFollowing on from the previous post, the minor support at R19.80 did indeed hold for the ZAR and the rand has strengthened to below the R19.25
The next hurdle is the 20ema at R19.16 which could open a test of the channel lows around R18.95
I still expect a test of R18.60-70 at some point.
Alternatively, if we score another "own goal" or the dolalr rallies, we could break back through R19.50 again which is the new support.
Usdzar is shortA full scale setup on Mzansi pair. It shows a huge pullback to the previous Low point.
I will see how it goes. Happy trading
TARGET reached for USDZAR unfortunately to R19.80!It was written in the charts.
The USD ZAR formed the Symmetrical Triangle on the daily.
The price consolidated and squeezed until it reached the Apex.
Then because the prior trend was up, the breakout was up and lead to a continuation in the trend.
The price then went to a dire R19.80!
Let's hope it forms a Buy Side Liquidity order block for Smart Money to sell into and bring the price back down.
But with what is going on with South Africa coalescing with Russia and with Eskom's issues, the confidence rate is dropping hard...
Sorry South Africa. The most beautiful country with amazing people and the government is messing it up!
USDZAR 2023 Yearly Structure OHLC [Sell Setup] Alert!🚨🚨🚨USDZAR 2023 Yearly Structure
OHLC Alert!
There is a significant bearish divergence observed in the monthly time frame, starting from February 1st, 2016 , up until the current market price on May 1st, 2023 . This bearish divergence indicates a growing dominance of sellers in the market. Additionally, the price in the monthly time frame indicates a high opening for the current year of 2023, presenting a clear sell setup in formation.
Price is being rejected at 19.86470 , providing an opportune moment for selling. An ideal sell trade would occur when price closes below 19.36809 , accompanied by a reliable TDI cross to confirm the presence of sellers in the market. The first take profit level is set at 18.20213, while the second take profit level targets the 2023 yearly open at 17.40263 . It is important to exercise caution and await valid entries before executing any trades.
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ZAR weaker and weaker...USDZAR is still trading inside this channel and making higher market structure. Today, we have found support above our last high which signals a potential trend continuation...
USD / ZAR UpdateIn an earlier post, we highlighted that we were waiting for the ZAR to give us some direction - and give us direction it did! The currency blew out to the upside (weaker) and tested its previous lows of 19.30 as expected - should the move higher.. After the recent 50 basis point interest rate hike, we expected to see the ZAR strengthen - unfortunately however, its price action has taken us by surprise and the currency remains stubbornly weak for now, hovering close to its all time lows.
Usd/Zar Sell opportunity if the price do not break 20 Zar price meaning that there will be selling opportunities till to 16 Zar according to my analysis . But be careful on fundamentals they can shift the predictions on opposite direction
USDZAR-SELL strategyIt is starting to look overdone, and of course on the back of GOLD weakness, the pair could slightly go higher a bit before down again.
the strategy is careful SELL @ 19.7300 and add again @ 19.8700. I suggest profit order near 18.3700 and stop-loss above 20.1500. (we may be adding above 20.00.
An Unexpected Twist: ZAR Might Gain Strength When Least ExpectedIn this different trading idea, we want to bring attention to a potential shift in the USD/ZAR currency pair that goes against popular belief. Despite widespread negativity, we see a chance for the South African Rand (ZAR) to gain strength against the US Dollar (USD).
While USD/ZAR has been bullish (going up) for a while, there are signs that things could change. Looking at the monthly chart, we notice some technical factors pointing to a possible turnaround for ZAR. These include elliot wave analysis and a strong trendline formed on the monthly timeframe
Remember that trading against the crowd comes with risks, so it's important to manage those risks wisely. Develop a plan that considers potential market reversals and unexpected events. Pay attention to important price levels and use stop-loss orders to limit losses if needed.
While others might dismiss the idea of ZAR gaining strength, thinking differently can sometimes lead to unique opportunities for traders who are willing to explore alternative possibilities.
USDZAR - Minor SupportThe ZAR broke out of R19.50 and has reached next "minor" support at R19.80 ...
The level corresponds with the measured target of the flag pattern breakout.
A retest of the break level is likely to occur, but one cannot predict if it happens before the next level (R20) or after. (We can just follow the lower timeframes for direction).
USDZAR | Monthly Chart | Outlook USDZAR as we can see that it recently broke a crucial level around 18.50xxx during the course of this month creating new highs around 19.5xxxx.
Looking to the right we can see the if USDZAR closes above 18.50xxx at the end of May, we can expect USDZAR to push further up to touch 20.50xxx - 20.70xxx before attempting to come back down to settle around 17.5xxxx - 16.2xxxx.
Given the current economic climate of South Africa and all the challenges the country is facing, the overall out look still seems bleak for the ZAR and we can expect to see it weaken further against most if not all major currencies as it ventures further to new historic lows/levels.
Potential Opportunity on USD/ZARJust a quick scalp
Usual rules apply, just a risk to reward of 1:1
You welcome to hold longer, I just prefer to be in and out.
Money management applied on all trades
Very interesting pair that I have been monitoring for some time. It does have a 80% win rate for this year.
(I have yet to back-test for the previous 5 years.)
Currently That is higher than my method on Gold, NZD/USD and AUD/USD
Which has a respectful win ratio of 65%
So let's see how this trade goes, quite excited to see the results of the next few trades.
BUILDING SUCCESSFUL TRADERS
MGR FOREX TRADING
Usd/Zar Correction CompletedUsd/Zar just finished its correction on the 1 hour time frame
Usd/Zar is at a all time high and has a double top reversal pattern on the daily time frame
This Reversal Pattern on the 1 hour time frame is called the Head and Shoulders Reversal Pattern
We can wait for the sell signal and sell
1H2023 USD/ZAR (weekly timeframe)Background (a quick look back): The rand's covid recovery, on the back of the Fed’s QE infinity policy and a strong commodities rally, ended in June 2021 after the rand managed to pull the pair to a low of 13.40. The rand got hit by a quick one-two in the middle of 2021 as the DXY found support around 90.00 and the local riots in July which saw the local unit tumble to 16.40 by November. This created the first major impulse wave.
The rand managed to pull the pair to a low of 14.40 in 1Q2022, but the party ended when the Fed started its current interest rate hiking cycle at the end of the quarter. Platinum prices also topped out at $1156/oz in the beginning of March 2022. The hiking cycle, external geo-political, global recession, local energy uncertainties and a 28% decline in platinum prices (from March to September) pulled the pair into a 5-wave rip tide (orange channel) to a yearly high of 18.60.
The final quarter of 2022 saw the rand stage an ABC corrective pattern which allowed the local unit to pull the pair onto the 38.2% Fibo retracement rate of 16.86. The main factors which supported the rand’s recovery was the DXY which fell off its high of 114 in September and the price of platinum which bottomed at $825/oz in the same month. Platinum has since gained roughly 32% and closed on a high of $1088/oz in the first week of January 2023.
Present (where to next): The rand managed to pull the pair onto the critical 61.8% Fibo retracement level of 16.80 from the covid recovery (green) in the first week of January 2023 after a stronger than expected non-farm payrolls report sent the DXY and US 10-year yields tumbling. The critical support range between 16.40 (top of impulse wave 1 and 50% orange Fibo retracement) and 16.80 will give an indication for the rand’s trajectory in 1H2023. The 50-week MA rate of also sits satisfyingly in this range at 16.47.
Support: A break below 16.80 will allow the rand to test the 50-week MA and the bottom of the support range at 16.40, the top of the major first wave. A break below the support range will invalidate the major 5-wave impulse wave which could see the pair fall between the orange 61.8% Fibo retracement rate of 15.88 and the 50% green retracement rate of 16.09. The best-case scenario for the local unit in my opinion is an appreciation onto the 200-week MA rate of 15.61 (this move does not seem highly likely now since the Fed is only expected to ease/pause its hiking cycle in the 2H2023).
Resistance: The first resistance rate which needs to give way for continued rand weakness sits at 17.30, the top of the orange third wave. A break above 17.30 will allow the pair to climb to the top of the corrective wave B at 17.96 and the psychological rate of 18.00. A close above 18.00 will confirm the fifth impulse wave to the covid high of 19.35.
Technical indicators: The weekly RSI is still trending upwards since hitting the oversold range in June 2021 and is current at a neutral level of 49.21 which is rand negative. The weekly MACD is currently holding a sell signal which is rand positive but the gap between the 12 and 26 EMA’s seems to be closing.
(SA is the world's leading platinum producer and the rand behaves like a commodity currency hence the emphasis on platinum price action in the description)
aFew Trendline basics ♧"A overview in the definition and importance of using trendlines , consolidation and breakouts in trading"
-Understand the basics of drawing trendlines, identifying consolidation and support and resistance levels. Get familiar with connecting highs and lows and forming a trendline or reconize consolidation.
-Run with the runners by understanding market momentum.
Identify runners and follow their trend and use other tools for identifying presure on the runners (such as RSI4) and manage the risk while trading in profit.
-Trading the reversal of the breakout as a cycle and understand the breakout and its significant counter value. Identify the breakout and entry points. Recognize the signs of a reversal and exit the position to trade the reversal to the breakout.
In this lecture, i hope to cover the basics of drawing trendlines, how to identify runners and trade with them, and how to trade the reversal of the breakout as a cycle.
By the end of the lecture, you should have a solid understanding of how to use trendlines to your advantage in your trading strategy.
" Trendlines are lines drawn on a chart that connect two or more price points, used to identify trends and potential trading opportunities. Knowing these basics of drawing trendlines, identifying runners, and trading the reversal of the breakout can be a powerful tool when traders look to identify trends and determine entrys & exits points and potential trading opportunities."
There are three types of trendlines: uptrend, downtrend, and horizontal (or sideways) trendlines.
- Uptrend lines connect 2 a 3 higher bulls (uprising bars),
- Downtrend lines connect 2 or 3 lower bears (downsetting bars)
- High & Lows trendlines connect high with hights and Low with lows
- Horizontal trendlines occur when the price remains relatively flat.
• Drawing the trendline and understand the basic is by identifying at least two points on a chart and draw a line that connects them. The line should be drawn along the slope of the trend, either up or down.
• Highs and lows trendlines are realized by connecting highs with highs and lows with lows. You should draw a line that runs along the top of the highs. When connecting lows, you should draw a line that runs along the bottom of the lows.
• Support levels are price points where demand for an asset (EURUSD) is strong enough to prevent the price from falling further, while Resistance levels are price points where supply is strong enough to prevent the price from rising further.
Run with the runners and understand the market momentum.
Market momentum is the strength of the current trend in a market and the momentum can be positive (upward trend) or negative (downward trend).
Runners are assets with strong positive or negative momentum trends. Traders can identify runners by looking for assets with strong upward price movement, high trading volume, and positive news or market hype.
Tools for identifying runners are the use of technical analysis tools such as moving averages, relative strength index (RSI4), and trendlines.
Managing risk while trading with runners is the way traders gain profit. Stop-loss orders should be set and avoid trading with too much leverage is necesary to manage risk while trading with runners.
Trade the reversal of the breakout as cylce. Understand the breakout and its significance when they occure as an asset's price moves beyond a key support or resistance level, indicating a potential trend reversal and identify potential breakouts and entry points by the use of trendlines and technical analysis indicators to take entrys and exits.
Recognizing the signs of a reversal as they occur when an asset's price movement changes direction, signaling a change in trend. Signs of a reversal may include a change in momentum, a break in a trendline, or negative news or market sentiment. Exit the trend for trading the reversal of the breakout should be accomlplished throught soul desire, set profit targets and or the use of a trailing stop-loss orders to manage the risk or take profit while trading the reversal of a breakout.
"Support and Resistance & Consolidation"
A consolidation occurs when the price of an asset moves within a range, between a defined level of support and resistance. Consolidations can provide traders with opportunities to identify potential breakouts and to trade with runners as they move the price towards the breakout level.
Support levels are price points where demand for an asset is strong enough to prevent the price from falling further, while Resistance levels are price points where supply is strong enough to prevent the price from rising further.
"Trendlines can be drawn to connect the highs and lows of the price movement during the consolidation period.
These will form the upper and lower boundaries of the consolidation range."
"Technical analysis tools such as Bollinger Bands, RSI, and Moving Averages can be used to confirm the consolidation and identify potential breakout levels."
During consolidations, runners can be identified by looking for assets with a consistent pattern of higher lows or higher highs.
Traders can buy when the price is moving towards the resistance level and sell when the price is moving towards the support level. You should set stop-loss orders and avoid trading with too much leverage to manage risk while trading in consodilations ranges.
Potential breakout levels can be identified by looking for price movements that break through the upper or lower boundaries of the consolidation range.
Traders can enter a long or short position once the price breaks out of the consolidation range.
Stop-loss orders can be placed below the support level for a long position or
above the resistance level for a short position.
Managing risk while trading the breakout is through a set profit targets and or use of trailing stop-loss orders to manage risk when trading the breakout as breakouts are reasons why traders intent to spot and run with runners , without jumping the gun.
"Recap the lecture by knowing the basics of drawing trendlines, identifying runners, and trading the reversal of the breakout."
The basics of identifying consolidations, trading with runners during,
the 3 trends, consolidations and trading the breakout
..all may provide traders with opportunities to identify potential profitable Forex trades and trade with runners as they move the price more than often.
"Traders use it as a powerful tool to identify trends and potential trendline breakout trading opportunities!"
• HappyForexTradingJournal
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