USDZAR trade ideas
USDZAR-SELL strategy daily chartThe pair starts showing a direction towards the south. The GANN fan provides resistance @ 19.2200 and 19.3350 area (trend line resistance).
The stochastic is negative, and this suggest lower levels to be seen.
Strategy SELL or remain or add short @ 19.1500-19.2100 and place stop-loss above 19.3350.
Profit order near 18.7300 but monitor 18.8700 support.
USDZAR | Weekly | UpdateLooking at USDZAR on our weekly chart we can notice that USDZAR has been failing to break to the downside as has been respecting our previously outlined levels. To elaborate further we can take note of the fact that USDZAR’s failure to break through our 17.50xxx Psychological level confirmed a new higher low on the pair after which it started rallying back up and is now trading above our 19.0xxxx price point; we can also take note of the fact that after USDZAR failed to break our 17.50xxx level creating a new higher low it gave us the opportunity to identify the formation of that bullish channel within our already existing long term bullish trend.
Now looking to the right on USDZAR we can notice the possibility of it creating a new all time high between our 20.50xxx and 21.50xxx respective levels and considering the current economic climate in South Africa and the upcoming elections causing further instability in the ZAR so we could possibly see the USDZAR head towards these levels as we head into 2024.
USDZAR- Dollar weakness creeping inThis is the second time the pair finds resistance at around 19.30. Momentum has started to shift and this time it is dollar weakness rather than Rand strength. Coming out of over-bought territory now with some proper selling pressure overnight, I expect a ZAR rally back to test at least 18.50 from here. This looks like a nice little USD short opportunity for around 60c over the weekend
USDZAR-SELL strategy 4 HourlyThe pair has formed a likely "false bull flag" pattern, and usually this means a move lower after a solid break of the base of the flag. The support is 19.1600 area, and the top is 19.3650 estimated.
The potential is a move back towards 18.7500 cloud support.
Strategy SELL @ 19.2250-19.3150 and place stop-loss above the flag resistance currently 19.3750 suggested level. Profit @ 18.7850.
South African rand in trouble - Next target R21 :(Inv H&S has formed on the USD/ZAR since 6 June 2023.
The price has recently broken above the neckine, showing the US dollar is poised for upside.
The DIXIE (US Dollar Index) is also showing upside to come.
7>21>200 and confirms the US dollar is going up.
RSI>50 - Bullish
First target is R21.00
ABOUT THE DIXIE:
HOW IT’S CALCULATED
The USDX is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and is based on the exchange rates of six major currencies: the euro (EUR) – Accounts for 57.6% - ,Japanese yen (JPY), British pound (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swedish krona ( SEK ), and Swiss franc (CHF) .
USDZAR 4H ForecastWe're in a bullish sequence on USDZAR, we're in a wave 3 phase which will unfold as an impulse wave. USDZAR will most likely trade bullish based on inverse correlation where XXXUSD trades on the bearish side. We can expect a minor pullback which may result in a significant buy very soon.
USDZAR-SELL Strategy 4 Hourly chartThe pair has moved according to expectation, and now it feels we may stall little bit. I will still be a little careful since GOLD has weakened and may weaken further more.
Strategy is SELL @ 19.2250-19.30 and place stop-loss above 19.3975 (financial stop) for now. Profit order near 18.8350.
$USDZAR - Possible Inverse Head & ShouldersIt seems the Daily chart of FX:USDZAR is very close to reaching the neckline to complete the right shoulder of what could then turn out an Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern. This is not the pattern with the highest reliability in my view, but by the looks of it now I will not discard this possibility right away. It also seems that the MACD has now turned up and is breaking through its trigger line with a first very small green histogram visible. Despite an article I published on 12 June 2023 where I see a target decidedly lower, in other words a stronger Rand (ZAR), but that being from a longer term chart, it seems that if this pattern continues to play out, we might see the ZAR as weak as ±R20-80 to the USD in the foreseeable future.
USD/ZAR: Bullish Breakout Ahead?USD/ZAR: Bullish Breakout Ahead?
1. Price Formation: The price has not yet broken out from an inverted H&S price formation on a daily chart.
2. Moving Averages: The 7-day moving average (MA) is above the 21-day MA, which is a positive sign indicating short-term bullish momentum.
3. 200-day Moving Average is below the Price.
4. Thus, Mas 7>21>200
5. Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is > than 50, indicating bullish momentum and potential further upward movement.
6. Price Target: 21
USDZAR- NEUTRAL BUY daily chartThe pair is holding up well, and perhaps its building in GOLD correction in the future.
The cloud support is above 18.6700 and sgtrong GANN support 18.11 and resistance 19.1100.
The RSI is positive as well.
Strategy BUY @ 18.7200-18.7500 range and take profit near GANN resistance 19.1100. Stop-loss below 18.3700.
USDZAR-SELL strategy Daily chartThe pair has been resilient, and keeping the support above 18.4000 area.
Based on current hammer top, and GOLD level remaining high, the consideration for SELL is far outweighing a buy strategy.
For now, SELL @ 18.8000-18.9500 and place stop-loss above 19.0250 and re-SELL below 19.2700. the profit order @ 18.4350 and thereafter 18.02450.
USDZAR - AnalysisThe USDZAR is in a range between 18.40-18.90 and building energy for the next leg.
Currently there is an inverted head and shoulders pattern developing which could become a possibility if the major 18.90 level breaks, then the neckline tests.
I still have a target of R18.20 & 200dma open for test and favour that direction for now.
ZAR trendIt will be interesting to see if the "new" trend will be maintained with the USDZAR possibly finding support around the 18.35 mark. Looking at the momentum indicators, we can see the dollar weakness very evident with the pair starting to hit over-sold levels. This suggests we can look at entering a long trade on the pair on that trend line in the coming days... One to keep an eye on
USDZAR-NEUTRAL The pair is trying to push lower on steady GOLD. My viewpoint earlier was we will likely move higher in time, but this is now diminishing. We have a neckline support 18.4000 area, which represents a not perfected looking S/H/S top, and if broken we may see south 17.9700.
Right now prefer NEUTRAL mode and monitor till more clear picture.