USDZARUSDZAR - part of yesterday's research report (published pre-market Asia).
Key levels highlighted in chart (subject to daily change).
USDZAR trade ideas
USDZAR It's has hit major support mostly likely a double top so right now guys we are sat on our hands ✋️ 🙌 on this pair if it's a double top then we as swing traders are to position ourselves to go along the flow of the river.
So we will be patient.
Patience pays in forex.
VHT your mentor signing out ✌️ ✨️
USDZAR update pre-US GDP resultsThe pair is currently testing the top of the blue downward channel. A break above 18.40 will allow for a move higher north of 18.50 while a break below 18.21 will invalidate this move higher.
I’m personally positioning myself for more rand weakness and a move north of 18.50 given the current risk-off back drop. My strategy is to place buy limit orders around the 18.21 support rate (small green box). I doubt the pair will break above the downward channel in today’s session given the highly anticipated US GDP results which will only be released tomorrow. SA markets will also be closed tomorrow which will increase the volatility in the pair’s price action.
In my previous USDZAR idea I predicted that the pair would climb higher to test the resistance rate around 18.50 if it were to break above 18.33. The resistance rate at 18.33 however held its ground and the pair fell below the support rate of 18.11 which invalidated my previous idea. Since then, the rand managed to pull the broad-based weaker dollar all the way down onto the psychological rate of 18.00. The pair bounced aggressively off the 61.8%n fibo retracement rate of 18.01 in the last week which is indicative of a double bottom at this rate and the start of a 5-wave impulse.
Fundamentally it's difficult to gauge the risk sentiment in the markets but the action in yesterday’s session is pointing to a fear trade. The both the US02year and US10year yield fell more than 10 basis points while the DXY climbed roughly 0.6% in yesterday’s session. This rush towards the safety of the bond market was largely driven by weak earnings results from the US banking sector. Tomorrow’s US GDP results will be imperative to the Fed rate hike expectations which seems to be fading given the fragilities in the US banking sector and the ongoing US debt ceiling debacle. Given this backdrop risk-off sentiment seems to have the upper hand which is rand negative.
There are however some rand positive factors. The first is the SARB’s aggressive inflation fight. The SARB released their monetary policy review yesterday and inflation expectations remain well above the SARB’s 3-6% target band. This means the SA repo rate will remain high even after the SARB’s aggressive cumulative 150 basis point hike from the past three MPC meetings. The SARB’s nominal repo rate is currently at 7.75% which is rand positive given the carry trade appeal it creates for the rand. Another positive factor is the strong platinum price which has risen roughly 25% since February this year. High commodity prices strengthen the SA trade balance which is rand positive (the rand tends to behave like a commodity currency).
In terms of technical indicators, the daily MACD indicator has crossed to a buy signal and the RSI, currently at 56, has room to move higher before hitting overbought zones. The shorter 1H and 4H time frames are however sitting in overbought zones which has me expecting a bit of a pull back towards 18.21 before the pair moves higher. The rate of 18.21 is the 38.2% fibo retracement rate which coincides satisfyingly with the pairs 50-day MA. The DXY is also pulling back in early morning trade which could give the battered rand some room to breathe.
usdzar h8 c*h setup strong upside buy/hold setup🔸Hello guys, let's review the 8 hour chart for USDZAR today. Speculative C&H setup in
progress. right now pullback/correction mode until mid may 2023.
🔸Price fractal is defined by cup structure (completed already), and the handle pattern.
handle pullback/correction in progress now. will complete later near 17.80.
🔸Recommended strategy for USDZAR bulls. Buy/hold after pullback completes near
17.80. conservative TP bulls is 19/20, although this may extend a lot higher beyond 20.00.
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USDZAR - BuyWe are long the USDZAR pair. This is based on the current political instability surrounding the ruling president of South Africa, the Rand is poised to get weaker over the coming weeks.
This is also taking into consideration the weekly and monthly momentum. This ship may see an uptick in price beyond the R18.50 per dollar.
In the short-term we are expecting a correction between R17 per dollar to 16.50 per dollar.
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USDZAR pre-SA CPIThe support level of 18.01 held its ground last week and the rand has been on the backfoot so far this week. The pair climbed to a high of 18.33 (the support turned resistance on the 23.6% Fibo level) on Monday. Although the rand managed to pull the pair lower onto the 50% Fibo level at 18.11, I believe there is further losses on the cards for the rand as the week progresses.
The latest CPI results for SA will be released in a few minutes which could be a catalyst for another move higher toward the red range between 18.46 and 18.54. Fundamentally the rand weakness looks poised to continue. The upbeat China GDP - and industrial production results released earlier this week failed to generate investor optimism and global metal prices as well as oil prices are starting to cool which are all rand negative factors. In terms of the DXY, the broad-based dollar strength has gained some traction since Friday’s aggressive push higher.
Looking at the technical indicators, the 4H MACD is holding a weak buy signal while the RSI has plenty of room to move higher. The story is mostly the same on the daily timeframe with the MACD holding a buy signal and the RSI sitting around 51.50.
(See the linked idea for a longer-term view)
USDZAR 18.04960 +0.04% DAILY CHART BREAK DOWN FOR THE WEEK AHEADHELLO EVERYONE
HOPE EVERYONE IS DOING GOOD HAVING A GREAT WEEKEND.
HERE'S A LOOK AT POSSIBLE SCENARIOS THAT COULD PLAY OUT ON THE DOLLAR/ ZAR IN THE COMING WEEK.
USD/ZAR CLOSED LAST WEEK WITH SOME STRONG MOMENTUM TOWARDS THE DOWNSIDE SIGNALLING SO MOMENTUM SHIFT LEAVING BEHIND BEARISH FVG.
* We have swept previous week high and multiple day candle rejections at this level.
* Second candle being that big bearish momentum shift which probably created some market structure shift on lower time frames.
* Looking for a continuation of this move in this coming week even though we have some trendline liquidity build up.
- Looking for ZAR To take the previous lows for confirmation that we are bearish for the week.
- Tap in to the OB
* If we break below and close under the OB
- TARGET would be the FVG that is unmitigated before continuing to the upside.
lets see how it goes.
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USDZAR We're Going Higher and HigherUSDZAR Appears bullish to supply area and fall to 17.9. It requires monitoring.
4h USDZAR updateYesterday’s pullback was a bit deeper than expected following the US initial jobless claims result. The US jobless claims came in higher than expected and coupled with the lower-than-expected US CPI results from earlier this week, markets are betting on a Fed rate pause sooner than initially anticipated. My record of trying to predict the Fed has been poor so I’ll just stick to my technical and fundamental analysis.
The rand managed to pull the pair onto the 61.8% fibo retracement rate at 18.01 following the jobless data from the US which was the second wave of the next 5-wave impulse. I expect the third wave to push the pair towards the resistance rate of 18.72 (the current yearly high). A break below 18.01 will however invalidate this expected move and the 5-wave impulse. The next resistance rates to keep an eye are 18.11, 18.21 and 18.33. A break above 18.33 will confirm the move to 18.71.
Technically on the 4h, the RSI bounced off the oversold zone and the MACD is rolling over and a cross-over buy signal seems imminent. The daily MACD is still holding a buy signal, all of which is rand negative. Additionally, the DXY is heavily oversold and a bounce in the broad-based dollar strength could create headwinds for the ZAR.
Just another bearish move on USDZAR After taking a bearish loss on this pair I found myself another bearish entry back in this pair.
USDZAR next 5-waveThe USDZAR pair completed an ABC corrective wave at the end of March after the higher-than-expected 50bps rate hike from the SARB allowed the rand to pull the pair into the support range between the 50%- and 38.2% Fibo retracement rates at 17.68 and 17.92, respectively. Since the start of April, the dollar (DXY) has found some support in the range between 101.36 and 101.81 and as a result, has the rand on the ropes heading into the 2Q2023. The aggressive bounce out of the blue support range is indicative of a first impulse wave and I suspect this next 5-wave impulse will see the pair complete the 5th wave of its major cycle which will push the pair onto its 2020 peak at 19.35.
(Please see attached my previous idea for the 1H2023 for a wider view)
Technically there is a buy signal on the MACD indicator which is rand negative, and the daily RSI has room to move higher before hitting overbought zones.
Usdzar african rand short positionusdzar reached strong zone and i hope perform its role
RR: 1:6
Entry:18.46
Target:17.51
PAIR: USD/ZAR - LONGWe can see the Bullish trend with 4 consecutive Higher Highs and Higher Lows. If this trend continues we will take the trade as per the mentioned analysis below.
Account Size: 10300
Risk Percentage: 1 + 1 = Total 2 Percentage
Amount at Risk: 103 USD
Sizing: 0.0689 Lots
Amount at Risk: 103 USD
Sizing: 0.0689 Lots
Total Amount at Risk: 206 USD
Total Lot Size: 0.1379
Entry Point: 18.32812
Stop Loss: 18.05369
Take Profit 1: 18.59969
Take Profit 2: 18.87126
Sell USDZARDaily OB. Price showing potential to go short with the transfer of liquidity lows, as well as the daily ob showing repeated HL'S and rejecton patterns. Price currently in retest leg. Current 4hr ob rej does show a slight possibility for the potential to maybe climb higher, thus a bigger sl is intended to mitigate that possibility.
USDZAR ForecastThe USDZAR appears to be in a Wave-2 bearish sequence, which could result in a bullish pullback to the 18.3 or 18.4 price levels, with a potential move up to the 18.6 highs.
Emerging market currencies to outperform G10 in 2023With the global economy showing more resilience and the Fed slowing its pace of tightening, we believe EM currencies can outperform relative to G10 peer currencies this year. Attractive real yields should result in market participants accumulating exposure to developing currencies, while our assumption for contained banking sector stresses should lead to improved risk appetite.
UZI am not really going to go heavy on this because tomorrow is NFP so I'm protecting my capital. This is what I'm seeing but will wait for the next few candles before deciding what I will do.
UZWe hit TP and we move. Clear your charts and start analysis and forecast all over. Well done, if you reached your daily target even better.
Expecting USDZAR to turn bearish in next few days.PEPPERSTONE:USDZAR
This pair is Failing to create new higher highs on its up trend on H4, according to my analysis it may turn positive to the down side.
UZStill running, but move SL into TP (According to your trading plan & goals). Dollar gaining back some of the strength it lost but as more and more talks go on about the one currency idea, we could see a further move down.
