USDZMW WISHFUL SHORTHighly wiahful short on USDZMW .I just drew what I can see on the charts ..... Draw what you can see
USDZMW trade ideas
USDZMW LONGIn this post, I share my update on USDZMW from the last forecast provided in the chart attached below.
Wave IV seems to have completed its correction at .382 of the third impulse, with a clear ABC correction that has been marked on chart, and we may now be heading to wave V.
However, lower degree timeframes indicate a potential impulse that has began and would potentially depreciate the Zambian Kwacha to K30.19 per USD.
This is also the area where we could expect the next resistance on the monthly TF.
December 19, 2023 forecast here:
Disclaimer: The information provided here is only for educational purposes and should NOT be taken as investment advice.
USDZMW (Where do we go from here?)So I have been privately analyzing USDZMW since 2015 and this idea of the USDZMW was created in 2021 after the elections(SEE BLUE HIGHLIGHTED PERIOD from 09 Nov 20 to 16 Aug 2021). Make of it what you will but the 29.71 price range if achieved could spell uncertainty. We have been in an up trend for the majority of the time and the drop from 22 to 16 seemed to have been a consolidation area that was eventually broken out of and rejected for a powerful breakout that brought us to 26. Now we have experience a small consolidaiton and it breaks out and upward it will achieve our 29.71 target.
USDZMW ANALYSISThe k21.41 remains a key price level. For the current count to still be valid the prices bust not retrace below the k21.41 level in wave for. If this count holds, the market will rally to k30.68 to complete an extended wave five that has been running for over 25 years. Please see my previous analysis to follow the USDZMW analysis attached below.
UPDATE USD vs ZAMBIAN KWACHABased on the recent fluctuations in the exchange rate between the US dollar (USD) and the Zambian kwacha (ZMW), it's evident that there has been volatility in the currency pair. The exchange rate dropped from 1 USD to 27.18 ZMW to 1 USD to 26.90 ZMW, indicating some instability. However, more recently, there has been a further drop to 1 USD to 25.35 ZMW.
My previous analysis suggested a bearish correction for the Zambian kwacha, with the potential for it to return to a support level around 1 USD to 22.63 ZMW in the coming months. Despite the recent drop, i still anticipate further depreciation of the ZMW against the USD based on technical analysis.
USDZMW EXPECTED CORRECTION COUlD THIS BE THE LAST STOP FOR USDZMW ?
definitively determine whether the recent weakening of the Zambian kwacha against the US dollar represents the final stop or if further depreciation is possible. Exchange rates can be influenced by a wide range of factors, including economic indicators, geopolitical events, market sentiment, and central bank policies.
The fact that there has been a recent drop in the exchange rate from 1 USD to 27.18 ZMW to 1 USD to 26.90 ZMW suggests some volatility in the currency pair. The expectation of a bearish correction for the Zambian kwacha, potentially returning to a support level around 1 USD to 22.63 ZMW in the coming months , could be based on various fundamental or technical analyses.
USDZMWCurrently Zambian kwacha is still in a depreciating trend due to lower copper prices and production and unfinished debt restructuring. Zambia has selected investors of its copper mines to help reach target of 3M tones copper production. Currently Zambia has not yet agreed with bond holders on debt deal. The USDZMW continues to be in an Uptrend ,and next level of resistance for this year 2023 is forecasted at 25.1. The kwacha is most likely to continue this depreciating trend because of seasonality, higher demand of USD for farming and energy input purchases
USDZMW ANALYSISThe bullish scenario has taken precedence. The market is currently unfolding in minute wave 3. The current analysis is forecasting completion of intermediate wave 5 @ ZWM 30.68 that has been extended from june 2008 (15 years). Refer to my early analysis published on 3rd February 2023 below.
USDZMW We are still seeing bullish momentum in the markets as kwacha is still loosing value againt the dollar, fundamentally/ economically the kwacha isn't performing well due to lack of proper economic activities in Zambia we will continue to see kwacha depreciate as there is a debt criss in the country and the government as of now is running low on reserves as they can only depend on the debt relief in order to keep the economy running smoothly as of 20th november bloomburg published that zambia's dollar debt plunged after official creditors co-led by China and France rejected a revised bondholder restructuring proposal, stalling the revamp of $3 billion of outstanding notes. This caused the kwacha to weaken as this will cause an economic HAULT on zambias economy as of now $1 to kwacha is at K23.84 against the dollar, so long creditors do not accept the revised bond proposal we might keep seeing it rise, technical analysis shows us a possible reversal in price might take place at MARKET PRICE K25, based on our technical speculation we might see price form some liquidity at that price as seen on our trend line and we expect price to to sell till k20 kwacha againt the dollar where we expect it to stabalize there for a while till proper economic polices are put in place.
USDZMW/Technical AnalysisWe might see a strong buy side liquidity on USD/ZMW, W formation formed on Monthly Time Frame after price hit our MTG at k15 which is likely to head back to k22.50 Zone, it has also broken another liquidity zone (OB) at k19.28 meaning that we still have a strong bullish run, Price might be heading back to fill the VOID from the heavy sell liquidity we had from July 2021 - August 2021.
Kwacha is yet to depreciate drastically till proper Fundamental and Economic Policies are put in place.
LONG USD/ZMWWE will continue to see an upward trend on USD/ZMW till K22.64, Once market reaches at this price we might start to see some appreciation in kwacha as price returned to fill the void that happened in 2021 from the huge sell, So if price doesn't start to retrace at K22.64 then we will see further buys till K23.00 so that BSL can be taken then we can see further sells till K20.00 on USD/ZMW
USDZMW SHORTLooking at a good valid weekly supply zone that market is likely to react from and continue its downward trend...Patience is vital on this pair as it has very little volatility from time to time.
USDZMW SHORT Market traded straight back into the monthly supply zone. Even though this trade idea is about a short back to 15 it will generally take a whole lot of fundamentals to play in favor of ZMW. I personally expect market to stabilize in this zone. Market closing above 22.6 on the monthly Time Frame is not what we want to see as it would trickle to market creating new highs ...... FX_IDC:USDZMW
#supply&demandtrading
USDZMW USDZMW looking forward to continuation of the down trend after the market mitigated some of the imbalances on the highs.
Markert made a bullish engulf candle signaling a good sell off probability which is currently being tested and mitigated.
Currently the Zambian economy is facing a form of uncertainty as it has not yet successfully come to an agreement to restructure its debt with its official creditors. positive news towards such an agreement will strongly confirm my analysis apart from that low up and down volatility is to be expected.
USDZMW USDZMW looking forward to continuation of the down trend after the market mitigated some of the imbalances on the highs.
Markert made a bullish engulf candle signaling a good sell off probability which is currently being tested and mitigated.
Currently the Zambian economy is facing a form of uncertainty as it has not yet successfully come to an agreement to restructure its debt with its official creditors. positive news towards such an agreement will strongly confirm my analysis apart from that low up and down volatility is to be expected.
My thoughts on USDZMWCurrently, the Zambian kwacha is facing several challenges that are impacting its value in the foreign exchange market. One of the main factors is the high inflation rate, which has been driven by a surge in food and fuel prices. In addition, the country's external debt has been on the rise, and this has led to a decline in investor confidence. These factors, combined with a slowdown in economic growth, have put pressure on the Kwacha's exchange rate. While it's difficult to predict the future movements of the currency, my technical view is that it could take another year before the Kwacha drops below K15 due to the technical factors at play.
USDZMW AnalysisThe decline from July 2021 to August 2022 has unfolded in a zigzag . If the July 2021 record high (ZMW 22.65) completed a five wave pattern that started in the 90s (IPO). Then the current decline is not sufficient to correct the totality of the five wave pattern and the rally from August 2022 is an X wave of larger bearish Complex correction. Wave X is forecasted to terminate at .618 (ZMW 18.93) to .786 (ZMW 21.08) fib level of Wave W. Wave Y should then resume and take prices below the August 2022 low (ZMW 15.7) potentially a range of to ZMW 11.90 to ZMW 9.73 . However if the first decline after the current rally (Wave X) unfolds into a correction, that will give the first indication that the market is still bullish and the August 2022 low is wave 4 (Minor degree). The final indication of a bullish market will be a close above the July 2021 record high (ZMW 22.65). In that case wave 5 (Minor degree) will is forecasted to terminate at 1 fib extension of alternate wave 1 (Minor degree) at which $1 trades against ZMW @ 27.91.
USD/ZMW FORECAST BULLISH MONTHLY SELL BREAKER.Starting off on the weekly chart we see K16.16 kwacha weekly sell breaker market shift to the upside bulls in control by confirming a k18.78 kwacha monthly sell breaker market shift more power in the move heading to the upside as the Fed prepares.
USDZMW Bullish Trend Bullish trend continuation once we break above the marked key level K18.75 . I expect price to go back and test the all time high K22.62
UPDATE on usdzmwthe sell off continues on usdzmw. technically the currency pair is in a confirmed downtrend, after the completion of the wave (B) we can now expect another sell off to make wave (C) probably to 11 Kwacha or further.
MORE POWER KWACHA !!!!IM BORED AND JUST WAITING FOR
THE NEW INSTRUMENT BRICS COOKING UP
Zambia been making some impressive economic moves so i am expecting the nas type beating to end
but i am a technical guy so
update on USDZMWI am still bearish on our currency against the US dollar as it is conforming to the analysis that was made back in September last year . the break and pull back of the trend line leaving a zigzag correction is so bearish, on the 38.2% fib retracement.
USDZMW ALL HELL ABOUT TO BREAK LOOSEUSDZMW has finally reached the 382 fibonacci retracement level this shows we are much likely to have a bearish trend for the coming months
