USDZMW BEARISHUSDZMW hit k22.94, A record high on July 2021. This high completed five waves at minor degree (bull market). USDZMW has since been in a bear market to correct the Impulsive bullish period from 1997. The decline after July was expected to be aggressive as it typical after a market hits the record high and the five wave is extended. The rally from August 2021 to date is clearly counter trend which is in its final stages. If the the Impulsive decline in the bear market is wave 1, look for a further rally to ideally hit the 1.618 fib @ K20.07 to complete wave 2. Otherwise expect a further decline down in wave C or 3 that will pull USD to a range of k9.37 ( at which the entire bear market retrace 0.618 fib level of the bull market) to k7.54 (the impulsive decline wave C will equal a 1.618 multiple of wave A).
USDZMW trade ideas
Kwacha is back (almost)Now this is by no means financial advice but mere analysis. When I saw price break the Daily Support at 17.63 , my immediate anticipation was we’re going lower.
Depending on what happens today at the Daily Support & Resistance (16.95) I believe it will reject and hold around that area for a while or it could right off break through and right for 16.4
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As commodities & metals start to recover on the international markets, commodity currencies are likely to gain significantly against
the greenback.
USDZMW USDZMW shows that we now starting to retracte once the bearish weekly candle is filled , will continue to go down for weeks and price is likely to fall back into the channel but will start to make the next implusive wave once it reaches 0.618 fib zone .This shows that the kwacha will may never go below K15, for some time or even years to come unless we see major improvement in the zambian economy .
TIME TO BUY THE KWACHAI think it's time to short the dollar and buy some Kwacha.
Price perfectly bounced off the 200% fib level (K18.94 / $1) on the monthly time frame matching up the same price at 261.8% fib level on the weekly time frame.
Going long term, I am seeing a week dollar and some Kwacha appreciation.
I expected the Kwacha to appreciate to about K17/$1 and K15.41/$1 IF price breaks through the support of the monthly ascending channel .
Disclaimer: This is only an idea and should not be taken as a trading signal.
USD/ZMK Potentiel long | Wait for breakout + retestThis has been a perfect play - out for several months. Price seems to have broken out of the prominent yearly channel with a strong impulsive wave. If the DXY closes above $100 this month, I expect the Zambian Kwacha to depreciate even further to at least K20.21 / $ 1 (CASE 1). If the U.S. dollar index closes the month below $100 however, I will expect the second scenario to play out.