PC - VIX - SPX- Waiting for Breakout Trigger! Market Reversal?This chart is a 4 hour candle of the PC (put/calls) that is in Tradingview. It is a bit different than the cboe put/call ratios chart we are familiar with.
However with this PC indicator, we can look at the whole market of stocks. We can expect a change in the market direction - ahead of time!
Take a minute or two and really observe how this PC chart is a contrarian indicator.
It is read same way as the VIX, cboe put/call indicators, and compared to SPX.
When PC readings are high, that is when we should be looking for a bottom in the market, and begin buying!
When the indicator is low (as it is now) we should be expecting a top and look to selling the market!
Here we see the SPX as a red line in the background for reference.
The Blue vertical lines are major SPX market reversal dates.
Notice how this indicator warned us about tops and bottoms?
We are now waiting for the trigger to be pulled. When we break above the little blue line (sloped downward), we will know that "the market top is in".
We should already be in a sold position by then and look for the market prices to collapse downward.
After this happens (it always does) we begin looking for a spike high reversal day in the future...
That's our cue to begin buying stocks at a discount when fear is the highest!
We are anticipating the trigger to be pulled now! Get ready!
PC trade ideas
Too Many Bears,.. Buying Too Many PutsWhen measuring market direction,
it is important to consider excessive bullish/bearish sentiment,
to quantify price direction over the near term.
Right now bearish sentiment,traders believing the market will go down,and putting their money behind it
by buying Put Options, rose to a 2019 high in September, and has continued to be elevated again in October.
Simply put, the market will rarely go along with the crowd of bearish sentiment.
In fact more often then not, the market will do exactly the opposite, and continue to rise in price
climbing a proverbial wall of worry that will frustrate bears where it hurts them the most, in their bank accounts.
I'm not saying the market can't or won't go down.
But it won't go down, when a crowd of overly bearish traders expect it to.
THE_UNWIND
10/10/19
NEW YORK